Bitcoin Faces Ongoing VWAP Resistance - January 23, 2026 #shorts

Key Concepts

• Anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price): A technical analysis indicator that calculates the average price of an asset, weighted by volume, starting from a specific point in time (the "anchor"). It is used to identify significant support and resistance levels based on cumulative trading activity from a chosen starting point.
• Rejection: A price action where an asset attempts to move past a certain price level (often a resistance point) but is met with strong selling pressure, causing it to reverse direction and move lower.
• Support: A price level where buying interest is historically strong enough to prevent the price from falling further, often acting as a floor.
• Resistance: A price level where selling interest is historically strong enough to prevent the price from rising further, often acting as a ceiling.
• Breakdown: A significant drop in price below a previously established support level, often signaling a continuation of a downtrend or a shift in market sentiment.
• 4-hour chart: A type of candlestick chart where each candlestick represents four hours of price action, providing a medium-term view of market trends.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Current Price Action

The speaker, using the TradingView platform and analyzing a 4-hour chart, detailed Bitcoin's recent performance. Bitcoin "tried to get moving a little bit today, but was rejected," indicating a failure to sustain upward momentum and a presence of selling pressure at higher levels.

Critical Anchored VWAP Levels and Market Structure

Bitcoin's price action is currently defined by its interaction with several key Anchored VWAP levels:

• November Low Anchor (Green Line): Bitcoin "continues to fight with the anchor off of the November low," which is visually represented as a green line on the 4-hour chart. This suggests this specific Anchored VWAP is acting as a crucial battleground for price, potentially as a support or resistance level.
• Year-to-Date Anchored VWAP (Purple Line): The price is "still below" the year-to-date anchored VWAP, depicted as a purple line. This position below a significant volume-weighted average price from the start of the year is interpreted as a bearish signal, indicating that the average investor who bought this year is currently underwater or at a loss.
• Year-to-Date High Anchored VWAP: The speaker noted that Bitcoin previously "found rejection that we were looking for" from the anchored VWAP originating from the year-to-date high. This confirms a prior expectation of resistance at that level, which played out as anticipated.

Historical Context and Prior Forecasts

The speaker referenced a discussion from "two weeks ago" where they talked about "the likelihood that the anchor from the all-time high would find supply along with the anchor from that orange, which is from the election." This highlights a consistent analytical framework involving long-term Anchored VWAPs as significant supply/resistance zones.

Outlook and Price Prediction

The speaker presented a clear argument for a potential downside move in Bitcoin:

• Argument for Breakdown: The speaker stated, "it just really feels like the more times it fails to hold an upward move and the more repeated tests of this support, the more likely it is I think it's going to break down." This perspective emphasizes that persistent inability to rally above resistance and repeated pressure on existing support levels erode market strength, increasing the probability of a decisive move lower.
• Target Price Level: The prediction is for a breakdown "towards that 80 78,000 8 uh 78 to 80,000 level." This specific price range is identified as the next significant target.
• Subsequent Action: Following a breakdown to this range, the price is expected to "go on and test this anchor," implying a significant underlying Anchored VWAP (likely the election anchor or another long-term anchor) that resides within or near the $78,000-$80,000 zone.

Conclusion

Based on the ongoing struggle with the November low anchor, the current position below the year-to-date anchored VWAP, and the repeated failures to sustain upward moves, the speaker maintains a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. The analysis suggests an increasing probability of a breakdown from current levels, targeting the $78,000-$80,000 range to test a significant long-term anchored VWAP.