Bitcoin Bear Market Resistance Band

Key Concepts

• Bare Market Resistance Band: A combination of the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acting as resistance during midterm years in Bitcoin’s cycle.
• Bull Market Support Band: The same combination of SMAs and EMAs acting as support during bull market phases.
• Midterm Year: The year following a Bitcoin halving event, typically characterized by cyclical contraction.
• Counter Trend Rally: A temporary upward movement within a larger downtrend.
• Macro Risk Memo: A report analyzing broader economic risks and their potential impact on asset classes, including Bitcoin.
• Liquidity: The ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without affecting its price.
• M2 Money Supply: A measure of the money supply in an economy, often incorrectly used to predict Bitcoin’s price.

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Bitcoin Market Update & Macro Risk Assessment – February 2026

This analysis provides an update on Bitcoin’s price action, focusing on the “bare market resistance band” and broader macroeconomic factors. The speaker, Benjamin Cowen, details his perspective on the current market cycle and offers insights into potential future price movements.

1. Recent Reports & Resources

Benjamin Cowen recently published two reports: a “Crypto Macro Risk Memo” (January 2026) and a broader “Macro Risk Memo” (February 2026). The January report was released when Bitcoin was trading at $97,000 and identified a cyclical contraction within the asset class. The February report expands on these themes, encompassing a wider range of asset classes, but still includes analysis of Bitcoin. Both reports are accessible for free on bjaminc.com; the February report is available for direct download as a PDF by submitting an email address via the “send institutional PDF” link. The January report can be found at benjamincow.com under the “reports” section. He also promotes “Into the Cryptoverse Premium” (intothecryptoverse.com) with a 50% discount using the code ITC50.

2. The Bare Market Resistance Band Explained

The speaker highlights a key technical concept: the “bare market resistance band.” This band, formed by the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), historically acts as resistance during midterm years (the year following a Bitcoin halving). He contrasts this with the “bull market support band,” which is the same combination of moving averages acting as support during bull markets. The transition from support to resistance occurs when Bitcoin fails to sustain gains above the band. He notes that sustained holding of the band as support typically happens in the pre-halving year, signaling a return to a bull market.

3. Price Action Similarities to 2022

The recent candle body formation mirrors the price action observed in 2022. Both instances featured a long wick below prior support, followed by a period of slow bleeding. However, the current breakdown is considered more bearish as Bitcoin failed to regain the level after the initial wick down, unlike in 2022. This suggests a potentially stronger downward momentum.

4. Potential for a Local Top in Early March

Drawing parallels to historical patterns, the speaker suggests a potential for a local top in Bitcoin around the first week of March. This is based on the observation that Bitcoin frequently experiences lows in February followed by a rally into early March. He cautions against relying on this as a definitive prediction, but highlights it as a recurring pattern.

5. Counter Trend Rallies & Midterm Year Strategy

Cowen explicitly discourages attempting to time counter trend rallies within a larger contraction phase. He emphasizes that predicting these rallies is “a fool’s errand” and that his focus is on recognizing the bare market environment and identifying opportunities elsewhere. He stresses that his objective isn’t to predict short-term bounces, but to acknowledge the overall bearish trend. He warns against the pitfalls of chasing short-term gains in a bear market.

6. Market Sentiment & Cognitive Dissonance

The speaker addresses the often-polarized sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, noting the tendency for individuals to attack those who present bearish perspectives after experiencing losses. He argues that a rational market approach involves acknowledging both bullish and bearish possibilities, regardless of personal investment positions. He points out that all assets experience both bull and bear markets, and it’s normal to acknowledge this reality.

7. Initial 50% Drawdown & Deeper Contraction

He states that the initial 50% drawdown was the “easy part” of the current bear market, comparable to the 2019 drawdown. He anticipates that navigating the deeper phases of the midterm year will be more challenging, potentially involving multiple counter trend rallies. He references the 2022 cycle, where a significant drop was followed by a strong rally before ultimately reaching a new low.

8. Year-to-Date Performance & Historical Context

Cowen asserts that Bitcoin’s current year-to-date performance is consistent with historical patterns observed in prior midterm years. He emphasizes that the current price action is not anomalous and aligns with the average performance of Bitcoin during similar periods. He notes that a forecast based on the average of prior midterm years has been reasonably accurate thus far.

9. Potential Scenarios & October Base Case

He outlines a potential scenario involving a revisit to the bare market resistance band later in the year, anticipating a rejection. He acknowledges the possibility of wicks above the band or even a temporary weekly close above it, but maintains a bearish overall outlook. He states his base case for a bottom is October, but doesn’t rule out an earlier low, potentially as early as May.

10. Misleading Indicators & Focus on True Tailwinds

Cowen criticizes the common practice of using M2 money supply as a predictor of Bitcoin’s price, arguing that it’s a misleading indicator. He directs viewers to his “Into the Cryptoverse Premium” content for a discussion of more relevant factors to consider when assessing Bitcoin’s potential tailwinds. He emphasizes the importance of identifying genuine drivers of Bitcoin’s price rather than relying on flawed metrics.

11. Channel Growth & Conclusion

He concludes by encouraging viewers to subscribe to his channel, which is approaching one million subscribers, and reiterates the resources available on his website and premium platform. He emphasizes the importance of independent analysis and avoiding reliance on biased narratives.

Quote: “Trying to time and trade counter trend rallies in the midterm year is honestly a fool’s errand because no one knows when they’re going to occur.” – Benjamin Cowen.

Synthesis:

The analysis paints a cautious picture of Bitcoin’s near-term prospects, emphasizing the likelihood of continued bearish price action within the context of a midterm year. Cowen advocates for a realistic assessment of the market, acknowledging the potential for counter trend rallies but prioritizing recognition of the overall bare market environment. He stresses the importance of focusing on fundamental factors and avoiding reliance on misleading indicators. His analysis is grounded in historical patterns and technical indicators, offering a nuanced perspective on the current market cycle.