Bill Shorten and Christopher Pyne dissect week four of the election campaign | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Cost of Living: A major issue influencing voter decisions.
• National Security: Another key concern for voters, particularly in the context of international tensions.
• Complacency: The perception that a political party is overconfident of victory, which can alienate voters.
• Defense Spending: The percentage of GDP allocated to defense, a point of contention between parties.
• Preferences: The order in which voters rank candidates, influencing the final outcome under Australia's preferential voting system.
• Negative Ads: Political advertisements that focus on criticizing the opponent rather than promoting one's own policies.
• Vote Winner: An issue or policy that is likely to attract significant voter support.
• Generational Divide: Differences in voting patterns and priorities among different age groups.

Peter Dutton's Trajectory and Coalition's Strategy

Christopher Pine argues that Peter Dutton has gained traction by focusing on cost of living and national security. He believes Dutton performed better than Anthony Albanese in the debate. Pine suggests the election will be closer than polls indicate, as voters are scrutinizing the Coalition more closely. He criticizes Labor for appearing complacent.

Bill Shorten dismisses Pine's assessment, sarcastically questioning the evidence of Dutton's alleged traction. He points out that major events, like the passing of the Pope, have overshadowed Dutton's media coverage. Shorten criticizes the timing of the Coalition's defense policy announcement, questioning why it wasn't emphasized earlier if national security is such a crucial issue.

Defense Policy Announcement

The timing of the Coalition's defense policy announcement is questioned, as it came late in the campaign, after pre-polling had already begun. Pine defends the timing, arguing that the Coalition has a strong record on national security and defense. He notes that defense spending fell during the Gillard-Rudd period but has improved more recently. He believes the announcement reinforces a Coalition strength as the election approaches.

Andrew Hasty Controversy

The limited visibility of Andrew Hasty, the Shadow Defense Minister, is discussed in light of resurfaced comments he made about the DNA of close combat units being "essentially exclusively male." A clip of Hasty's response to questions about these comments is played. Shorten suggests Hasty may have been kept out of the spotlight to avoid further controversy. Pine defends Hasty, stating he was referring to his personal experience. Shorten questions why the Coalition isn't utilizing Hasty more if defense is such a key issue.

Preference Deals

The Coalition's decision to preference One Nation is examined. Pine argues that One Nation is a different party than it was in the past and that the Labor Party preferences the Greens despite their extreme policies. Shorten emphasizes that Australia has a compulsory preferential voting system. He suggests the One Nation deal reflects the Liberals' desperation.

Final Week Predictions

Pine predicts a busy final week with increased television advertising and negative ads. He believes both leaders are "in the zone" and that Dutton is performing better than before. He argues that the election is a crucial decision, especially for those who want lower taxes, and encourages voters to support the Coalition.

Shorten asserts that "the math isn't mathing" for the Liberals and the Coalition. He claims that people born after 1981 are unlikely to vote for the Coalition, as they are primarily targeting baby boomers and older generations. He argues that Dutton lacks policies addressing the concerns of younger voters regarding housing, climate, and wages.

Conclusion

The discussion revolves around the Coalition's strategy in the final weeks of the election campaign, particularly their focus on national security and cost of living. The timing of their defense policy announcement, the controversy surrounding Andrew Hasty, and their preference deal with One Nation are all scrutinized. The participants offer contrasting perspectives on the effectiveness of the Coalition's approach and the potential outcome of the election, highlighting the key issues and dynamics at play.