Bill Shorten and Christopher Pyne critique campaigns ahead of polling day | 7.30

Key Concepts:

• Polling accuracy vs. election results
• Liberal Party campaign performance
• Right-wing voter behavior and preference flows
• Impact of media coverage on political figures
• Campaign discipline and messaging
• Pre-poll voting trends
• Seat-specific election dynamics
• Cost of living concerns and voter sentiment

1. Campaign Performance and Polling Accuracy:

• Bill Shorten characterizes the Liberal campaign as potentially the "worst campaign since maybe Mark Latham in 2004," describing it as a "train wreck."
• Christopher Pyne counters that the election result for the Coalition will not be as dire as polls suggest, citing the 2016 US election where polls predicted a Hillary Clinton victory.
• Pyne believes there will be "quite unusual results in a number of different seats."
• He argues that many people are concerned about cost of living issues but may not be captured in polling data.

2. Right-Wing Voter Dynamics:

• Pyne asserts that the Liberal Party doesn't need to worry about right-wing voters, as they will likely vote Liberal or have preferences flow back to the Liberals from parties like One Nation.
• Shorten agrees that right-wing voters often "spray off to smaller right-wing parties" when they perceive the Liberals as unlikely to win.
• Shorten notes that One Nation's preferences historically flow about 65% to the Liberal Party, making primary vote retention crucial for the Liberals.

3. Media Coverage and Political Attacks:

• Pyne defends Peter Dutton's reaction to a "hatchet job" by Four Corners, arguing it's natural to defend one's reputation.
• Shorten sarcastically remarks that media scrutiny only seems to affect Liberals, implying Labour politicians also face tough election coverage.

4. Campaign Discipline and Messaging:

• Shorten criticizes Dutton's focus on "welcome to country" ceremonies, arguing it's irrelevant to cost of living concerns.
• He contrasts this with Pyne's disciplined messaging style, comparing him to "a ferocious rottweiler on the topic."
• The discussion includes a clip of Peter Dutton and Sarah Henderson discussing curriculum changes, highlighting potential communication issues within the Liberal campaign.

5. Pre-Poll Voting and Election Day Dynamics:

• Pyne emphasizes the increased number of pre-poll and postal votes, suggesting that election results in many seats may take days to determine.
• He believes the "Canberra Press Gallery" often misinterprets public sentiment and that the election outcome will surprise many.

6. Seat-Specific Analysis:

• Pyne expresses confidence in James Stevens's chances in his former seat of Sturt, dismissing Labour's prospects there.
• He argues that Scott Morrison's unpopularity, a factor in the previous election, is no longer a significant issue in seats like Sturt.
• Shorten suggests that Labour's position in Victoria has improved since February and that voters in Melbourne's outer suburbs have rejected Peter Dutton.

7. Economic Policies and Cost of Living:

• Pyne highlights the Coalition's policies, such as the 25% cut to fuel excise and the cost of living tax offset, as popular measures.
• Shorten criticizes the Coalition's economic costings, pointing to "two bigger deficits" and questioning the feasibility of their nuclear power plan.

8. Notable Quotes:

• Bill Shorten: "It is the Liberal campaign would have to be the worst campaign since maybe Mark Latham in 2004 or maybe the 1977 election. This is probably the biggest train wreck in an election in 18 federal elections."
• Christopher Pyne: "I think that the election result for the coalition is not going to be nearly as bad as either the polls show or the bubble suggests."
• Christopher Pyne: "Scott Morrison is not an issue at this election and I don't think that uh the swing will be to Labor in many of those seats."

9. Technical Terms and Concepts:

• Preferences: The order in which voters rank candidates in an election using a preferential voting system.
• Teal Seats: Refers to seats won by independent candidates, often with a focus on climate action and integrity in politics.
• Canberra Bubble: The perceived disconnect between the political and media establishment in Canberra and the broader public.
• Costings: Detailed financial analysis of the projected costs and revenues associated with a political party's policy proposals.

10. Synthesis/Conclusion:

The discussion revolves around the perceived struggles of the Liberal Party's campaign, the reliability of polling data, and the dynamics of voter behavior, particularly among right-wing voters. While Shorten paints a bleak picture for the Liberals, Pyne remains optimistic, suggesting that cost of living concerns and pre-poll voting trends could lead to a surprising election outcome. The conversation also touches on the impact of media coverage, campaign discipline, and seat-specific factors that could influence the final results.