Berman's Call for Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

Key Concepts

• Gold Correction & Recovery: Analysis of potential downside and upside for gold prices, considering historical trends and recent market events.
• Federal Reserve Policy: Impact of potential Fed Chair nominee (Kevin Warsh) and current Fed policy on market sentiment.
• Tech Earnings: Review of recent earnings reports from Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla, and their implications for the tech sector.
• ETF Investment Strategies: Discussion of ETF options for retirement income, including dividend-focused and covered call strategies.
• Private Credit: Exploration of private credit as a fixed income alternative, its risks, and potential benefits in a low-yield environment.
• Technical Analysis: Use of moving averages (specifically the 200-day moving average) to identify potential support levels and correction phases.
• Cyclical Stocks: Understanding the nature of cyclical stocks like iron ore companies and the importance of trading versus long-term investing.

Gold Market Analysis & Correction Phase

The discussion began with gold attempting a recovery following a decline. Larry Berman anticipates a potential correction in gold, potentially testing the 200-day moving average, currently around $1,980, possibly falling to $4,000 or slightly lower in the coming months. He cautions against immediate purchase, suggesting the recent highs may hold for the next year or longer. Historically, gold corrections have lasted months to years; the peak around $1,900 in 2011/12 took over a decade to recover. He notes that the 200-day moving average is rising, providing a potential support level.

Federal Reserve & Market Sentiment

The announcement of Kevin Warsh as a potential US Fed Chair nominee initially provided some market relief. However, the speaker believes nominating Warsh doesn’t necessarily solve the debt or Fed balance sheet issues. Significant shifts in Fed thinking won’t occur until Warsh is confirmed and his current views (known to be critical of the Fed’s operations) are understood. He anticipates positive changes but emphasizes the need for confirmation and a shift in perspective.

Tech Sector Earnings & AI Impact

Recent earnings reports from Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft were analyzed. Google’s success is attributed to its focus on AI and search, overcoming previous antitrust concerns. Amazon’s cloud performance is crucial; if it mirrors Microsoft’s reported pressures, it could negatively impact broader markets. Tesla’s restructuring, phasing out the Model S and X, and focusing on mass-market vehicles and potentially consolidating with other Elon Musk brands, received a negative market response. The speaker suggests this highlights the speculative nature of the market, where high expectations are already priced in, and any deviation from those expectations leads to punishment.

Retirement Portfolio & ETF Selection

Responding to an email from Scott, a retiree seeking a hands-off ETF mix, the speaker strongly advises consulting a low-cost, ETF-focused financial advisor. He acknowledges the common scenario of one spouse managing investments while the other is unwilling or unable to do so, and the need for a plan in case of incapacitation. He emphasizes the importance of professional advice due to regulatory constraints and individual circumstances.

Indian Market & ETF Options

Regarding an inquiry about investing in the Indian market, the speaker recommends the BMO India Equity Index ETF (ZID) for TSX trading. He notes the bid-ask spreads can be wide for active traders but are acceptable for long-term investors. He also suggests FIN or INDA for US-traded options. He recently doubled his position in India following trade negotiations between the EU and India, viewing it as a compelling emerging market.

Brookfield Infrastructure & Private Equity

The discussion addressed Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP) versus Brookfield Corporation (BN). The speaker favors Brookfield Infrastructure due to lower broader market risk, noting that private equity companies like KKR, Blackstone, and Apollo are currently underperforming. He emphasizes Brookfield’s global reach and expertise in infrastructure investing.

ServiceNow & Salesforce Analysis

The speaker expressed a negative view on Salesforce (CRM), citing difficulties in integration and potential disruption from AI agents. He favors ServiceNow (NOW), particularly after its recent earnings-related price drop, and has begun acquiring it through put writing. He believes AI will revolutionize CRM in the corporate world.

Iron Ore Sector & Trading Strategy

Regarding the iron ore sector and Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), the speaker advises a trading approach rather than long-term investment due to the cyclical nature of the industry. He suggests accumulating the stock if it dips below $10.

Private Credit & Fixed Income Alternatives

The educational segment focused on private credit as a fixed income alternative. He highlighted the underperformance of traditional bond ETFs against inflation and the potential for higher yields (6-12%) in the private credit space. He stressed the importance of understanding the risks, particularly illiquidity, and allocating only a portion of the fixed income portfolio to private credit. He referenced a TIA report indicating increasing pension fund investment in private credit. He recommends keeping liquid funds for immediate income needs and allocating longer-term funds to private credit for better inflation-adjusted returns.

Notable Quotes

• “You’re probably representing 50% of the BNN viewers out there where you’ve watching it. One spouse or the other is very active and the other one is incapable, isn’t willing, doesn’t care to to do the work necessary to be a do it yourself investor.” – Regarding the challenges of retirement portfolio management.
• “I didn’t like it a year ago when it was at $200. ServiceNow. I like it a lot more here.” – On ServiceNow’s current valuation.
• “Software overall is one sector that’s been hit a lot. And it’s thought of in the marketplace that artificial intelligence tools and agents are going to be replacing at the corporate level, a lot of what software as a service kind of does for big business.” – On the impact of AI on the software sector.

Logical Connections

The discussion flowed logically from broad market trends (gold, Fed policy) to specific company earnings (tech sector) and then to individual investment strategies (retirement portfolios, Indian ETFs, Brookfield, ServiceNow). The educational segment on private credit provided a broader context for fixed income investing, linking back to the earlier discussion of underperforming bond ETFs.

Data & Statistics

• Gold Peak: $1,900 around 2011/12.
• 200-day Moving Average (Gold): Approximately $1,980.
• Potential Gold Correction Range: $4,000 or slightly lower.
• Private Credit Yields: Typically 6-12%.
• ETF Performance (vs. Inflation): ZCB, XHB, and the Canadian Bond Market have underperformed inflation over the past decade.

Conclusion

The broadcast provided a comprehensive overview of current market conditions and investment opportunities. Key takeaways include caution regarding gold’s potential correction, the importance of monitoring Fed policy, a nuanced view of the tech sector, the need for professional financial advice in retirement planning, and the potential benefits of private credit as a fixed income alternative. The emphasis throughout was on understanding risk, considering individual circumstances, and adopting a disciplined investment approach.