Ben Finegold: Uranium in 2026 — Price Outlook, Plus Stocks, Supply and Demand

Key Concepts

• Spot Price vs. Term Price: Spot price refers to the current price for immediate delivery of uranium, while term price is the price agreed upon for future delivery.
• NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission): The US agency responsible for regulating the nuclear industry, recently shifting focus towards facilitating new nuclear development.
• Hyperscalers: Large technology companies (e.g., Microsoft) investing in nuclear energy to power their data centers.
• Life Extension: Extending the operational lifespan of existing nuclear power plants.
• Kazatomprom: The world’s largest uranium producer, based in Kazakhstan, undergoing changes to subsoil use agreements.
• RFPs (Requests for Proposals): Documents utilities issue to producers seeking uranium supply.
• TRL6 (Technology Readiness Level 6): A stage in technology development indicating a fully functional prototype or representative model has been demonstrated in a relevant environment.
• Halo: A specific type of enriched uranium produced by Centrus Energy.
• Cumulative Deficit: The total amount by which uranium demand is expected to exceed supply over a period of time.

Uranium Market Outlook: 2025 Review & 2026 Projections

2025 Market Performance & Key Trends

The uranium market in 2025 presented a mixed picture. While the broader “nuclear theme” garnered significant attention, the uranium spot price largely underperformed expectations. Ben Fineold of Ocean Wall characterized the year as one where equities performed strongly despite the lack of substantial movement in the spot price. However, term prices began to rise noticeably in the latter part of the year, accompanied by meaningful trading volumes. This divergence highlights the distinction between immediate and future market expectations.

Shift in Utility Behavior & Demand Dynamics

A key observation from 2025 is the slower-than-anticipated contracting activity from utilities. Despite widespread expectations of increased procurement, utilities have been hesitant to enter long-term agreements. This hesitancy stems from two significant changes:

1. Regulatory Reform: The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has undergone a fundamental shift, moving from a historically prohibitive stance towards actively facilitating new nuclear construction. This change signals a more supportive environment for nuclear development.
2. Increased Funding: Substantial government funding commitments, including $80 billion to Westinghouse and a $550 billion collaboration with Japan, demonstrate a growing commitment to expanding nuclear capacity.

However, utilities remain cautious, observing that new nuclear construction is currently concentrated in China. Globally, the number of operating nuclear power plants has decreased since 2020. Utilities are awaiting tangible evidence of widespread new reactor builds before committing to large-scale procurement. November saw a notable increase in contracting (27 million pounds), representing roughly a third of the year’s total volume, but overall contracting activity remained lower than expected, particularly at the World Nuclear Association (WNA) week in London.

Impact on Pricing & Supply-Demand Balance

The historical precedent of a 3400% price increase following a 10% disruption to future production (e.g., the 2007 Cigar Lake incident) illustrates the potential for significant price volatility. Currently, Chemico estimates that 67% of utilities’ uranium requirements for the next two decades are uncovered. If utilities begin contracting simultaneously, the impact on both spot and term prices could be substantial.

Spot market transactions accounted for only 15% of procurement in 2025. Sustained price increases will likely be driven by utility RFPs (Requests for Proposals) that producers are unable to fulfill, forcing utilities into the spot market. This scenario could push uranium prices to $100-$200 per pound and maintain them at elevated levels.

Life Extensions & AI Demand

The increasing focus on extending the lifespan of existing nuclear reactors is a significant near-term driver of uranium demand. Reactors running down fuel inventories to zero, then receiving approval for 20-year extensions, create immediate incremental demand. This contrasts with the longer lead times associated with new reactor construction. While not representing new nuclear capacity, life extensions provide a readily available boost to demand.

Regarding the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) demand, Fineold believes the nuclear thesis remains robust regardless of AI. While hyperscalers are driving demand for power, they are unlikely to fund first-of-a-kind nuclear projects, preferring to capitalize on government-backed initiatives. An AI bubble burst could trigger a temporary correction in nuclear stock prices, but high-quality uranium equities would present a buying opportunity.

Geopolitical Considerations & Supply Concentration

Kazakhstan, accounting for 40% of global uranium supply, is implementing changes to its subsoil use agreements. This move is interpreted as an effort to nationalize its uranium assets and maximize its revenue from a potentially tightening market. The changes involve requiring a minimum of 90% Kazakh ownership in renewed Joint Venture (JV) agreements, with potential exemptions for technology sharing in conversion and enrichment. Kazatomprom is increasingly directing its exports towards China and Russia.

The concentration of uranium production – 62% originating from just 10 mines – creates inherent supply risks. The lack of new mine development since 2016 exacerbates this vulnerability.

Investment Strategy & Key Opportunities

Ocean Wall’s investment strategy prioritizes high-quality companies with favorable metrics like market capitalization relative to pounds of uranium in the ground, adjusted for geopolitical risk. They favor North American and select Australian/Namibian assets, particularly those positioned to benefit from a US premium due to the country’s reliance on imported uranium (97-98% in 2024).

Specific companies highlighted include:

• Premier American Uranium: Undervalued exploration company with 18 million pounds in the ground.
• Centrus Energy (ASPI): Offers exposure to the enrichment theme, particularly its Halo program, but faces capital efficiency challenges and reliance on Russian revenue.
• Sylex: Developing laser-based enrichment technology (TRL6 achieved).
• Kazatomprom: While cheap, carries geopolitical risk due to potential nationalization.

2026 Outlook & Supply-Demand Deficit

The projected supply-demand balance for 2026 indicates a continued deficit. Estimated primary supply is around 160-165 million pounds, while demand remains stable at 180-185 million pounds, resulting in a 20 million pound shortfall. A cumulative deficit of approximately 300 million pounds is anticipated between now and 2035. This deficit could be amplified by delays in new mine development and declines in production from existing mines.

Overlooked Factors & Final Thoughts

Key overlooked factors include:

• Kazakhstan’s nationalization efforts.
• India’s potential demand: India’s ambitious nuclear expansion plans have not yet translated into significant procurement activity.
• China’s aggressive acquisition strategy: China’s national uranium company is actively seeking to acquire international assets.
• Recent surge in term volumes: Term pricing is nearing Ocean Wall’s year-end target of $90/lb.

Fineold concludes that 2026 presents a favorable outlook for uranium equities, with the potential for higher pricing, positive market conditions, and strong fundamentals. He emphasizes that non-fundamental sell-offs should be viewed as buying opportunities for investors focused on long-term value. The uranium market offers a generational investment opportunity due to its unique characteristics and the enduring strength of the nuclear thesis.