Battle for Pokrovsk 'over', claims Russia & Putin ordered spy poisoning 'as show of Russian power'

Key Concepts

• Battlefield Situation: Control of Prosk and Minad, challenges in defending Picrosp, Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, incident involving a draft officer in Lviv.
• International Relations & Diplomacy: US criticism of European NATO allies, EU's attempts to unfreeze Russian assets, Russia's reaction to asset seizure, US-Europe defense industry dynamics, Australia's military assistance and sanctions, India's stance on Russian oil and its relationship with Russia and the West.
• Global Order & Geopolitics: The changing world order, decline of democracies, rise of multipolar competition, the role of emerging middle powers, the "global west," "global east," and "global south," the need for Western countries to adapt and engage in dialogue.
• Chemical Weapons & War Crimes: The GRU's murder of Dawn Sturgis by Novichok nerve agent, the public inquiry's findings linking Vladimir Putin to the assassination, the toxicity and persistence of Novichok, the challenges of protecting double agents, the broader implications for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
• Peace Talks & Negotiation: The perceived futility of current peace talks, Russia's objective to win rather than seek peace, the differing approaches of materialistic negotiators and ideologues.

Battlefield Updates and Concerns

Prosk and Minad: While not officially confirmed by Ukraine's General Staff, there is an assessment that Russian forces now control Prosk in the Donbas and are likely to overwhelm Minad in the near future. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of Ukraine's armed forces, described the defense of Picrosp and Minad as an "extremely difficult stage," noting that Ukrainian units are holding the northern part of Picrosp but facing a "harrowing and costly defense" due to logistical challenges. He emphasized the importance of preserving personnel, a sentiment that the report's host, Dom Nichols, questioned as potentially overly optimistic given the realities of the situation.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashinets reports that Russia is operating in the July and Dnipro Petrosp areas of Zaporizhzhia Oblast with troop numbers comparable to those in Picrosp. This is concerning for two reasons: the disregard for troop safety by Russia when mass is a factor, and the potentially less mature Ukrainian defenses in the south compared to the Donbas. While Ukraine has built extensive obstacle belts in response to drones and manpower limitations, these are reportedly less developed in the south. A Russian breakthrough or momentum in this area is considered particularly concerning.

Russian Troop Deployment in July: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Russian forces in the July area include three brigades of the 35th Combined Arms Army south of the town, and one division and two brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army to the east and north. These forces were recently bolstered by elements of the 76th Airborne Division (VDV) from Sumy Oblast. While VDV are typically considered higher quality troops, they have been depleted. Other Russian units bolstering the area include elements of the 228th Motor Rifle Regiment, the 38th Motor Rifle Brigade, and the 69th Separate Cover Brigade. Mashinets suggests these redeployments have significantly improved Russia's combat capability, leading to a tactical breakthrough of approximately 17 kilometers. Russian forces are now on the outskirts of July Pole from the north and northeast, and significant water obstacles exist in the area.

Drone and Missile Attacks: Across Ukraine, 114 out of 138 Russian drones fired were intercepted, along with two ballistic missiles. Kherson was particularly hard hit, with damage to its heat and power station leaving 40,000 people without power. Casualties in Kherson included a six-year-old child and an adult killed, with four others injured.

Incident in Lviv: A draft officer in Lviv died in hospital after a fatal knife attack during a document check. The officer, Yuri Bonderenko, was stabbed in the groin by a 37-year-old resident who refused to present documents and acted aggressively. The assailant was later detained. The report notes that incidents of military-aged men being stopped on the street for status checks, sometimes leading to forceful conscription, have become widespread due to Ukraine's manpower shortages and fewer volunteers.

Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Infrastructure: Ukraine's armed forces reportedly struck over 50 fuel and military-industrial infrastructure sites in Russia during the autumn, described as an "unprecedented rate of successful attacks." This information comes from Ukraine's General Staff and experts cited by Schemes, an investigative project. Satellite imagery from Planet Labs has been used to map these strikes on oil refineries, gas processing plants, fuel terminals, and military-industrial sites. Damage has been confirmed at 13 locations. Military and economic analysts suggest these attacks have forced Russia to increase spending on facility protection and have led to fuel shortages in some regions.

International Defense and Diplomacy

UK-Norway Defense Agreement: The UK Prime Minister welcomed the Prime Minister of Norway, with the signing of a defense agreement for British and Norwegian navies to operate together in the North Atlantic in the coming years. This agreement, named the Luna House Agreement after the Norwegian Resistance's WWII headquarters, will involve an interchangeable fleet of British-built Type 26 frigates. The British MOD reports a 30% increase in Russian vessels threatening UK waters in the past two years, citing the presence of the Yandar spy ship. The Type 26 frigates are anti-submarine warfare vessels, with the Royal Navy receiving eight and Norway commissioning at least five.

Australia's Military Assistance: Australia's Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, announced a $95 million military assistance package and sanctions on an additional 45 vessels linked to Russia's "shadow fleet." This brings Australia's total support to Ukraine to over $1.7 billion since the conflict began, aimed at "starving Russia's war economy of revenue."

US Criticism of European NATO Allies: US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau reportedly criticized European NATO allies for prioritizing their own defense industries over American arms suppliers. According to Politico, Landau urged ministers not to "bully his country's defense firms" out of participating in Europe's rearmament. This criticism is seen as paradoxical, given US calls for increased European defense spending, yet simultaneously pressuring them to spend in ways that benefit American companies. The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding future US arms sales and spare parts deliveries, particularly under a potential Trump administration.

EU's Frozen Russian Assets: Dmitri Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, reacted to the EU's attempts to unfreeze Russian state assets by stating that if the EU "steals frozen Russian assets for a reparations loan," it could be viewed as a casus belli with "relevant implications for Brussels and co." The report suggests that the EU's pursuit of these assets has spooked some countries who fear provoking Russia, especially if they believe peace talks are progressing. The Belgian Prime Minister's letter to Ursula von der Leyen and his subsequent remarks about the illusion of Russia's defeat are cited as examples. The report questions whether the US is pressuring certain countries to stall European measures regarding these assets.

Italy's Stance on Peace Talks: Italy's Foreign Minister stated that it would be "premature to participate in Pearl" (likely referring to the Pearl Fund or a similar initiative), arguing that if an agreement is reached and fighting ceases, weapons will not be needed, only security guarantees. This statement is met with skepticism, questioning the basis of such guarantees without underlying military strength.

China's Involvement in Moscow Meetings: The report notes the presence of China's Foreign Minister at meetings in Moscow concerning Ukraine, questioning China's role and interest in the peace process.

The Changing Global Order and Geopolitics

Alexander Stubb's "The West's Last Chance": The essay by former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, published in Foreign Affairs, argues that the world has changed significantly in the past four years, with rising conflicts and a perceived decline of democracies. The post-Cold War era is over, and the liberal rules-based order is dying, giving way to multipolar competition. Stubb identifies emerging middle powers (Brazil, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey) as "game changers" who have the economic and geopolitical leverage to influence the global order. He posits a "triangular contest" between the "global west," "global east," and "global south," with the latter deciding the direction of geopolitics. Stubb calls for the West to demonstrate dialogue, consistency, and cooperation to convince the rest of the world, warning that a failure to do so could lead to greater conflict.

Rebalancing Power in International Bodies: Stubb advocates for a rebalancing of power within the UN and other international bodies, suggesting that no single state should have veto power in the Security Council and that members violating the UN Charter should face suspension. The report questions the feasibility of such changes given the self-interest of Security Council members.

Values-Based Realism: Stubb proposes "values-based realism," a balance between values and interests that prioritizes principles while acknowledging the limits of state power. This approach emphasizes understanding differences in countries' geography, history, culture, religion, and economic development, and advocating for support rather than lectures on issues like citizens' rights and good governance. Critics argue this could empower countries that do not adhere to the Western-backed rules-based order.

The War in Ukraine as a Turning Point: Stubb views the war in Ukraine as a pivotal moment for young people, akin to 1918, 1945, or 1989. He warns that the world could take a wrong turn, as it did after World War I, if great power competition is not contained. He critiques the Yalta conference for big states making deals over smaller ones and advocates for a Helsinki 1975-type model.

The GRU's Murder of Dawn Sturgis and Chemical Weapons

Public Inquiry Findings: The final report from the international dispute resolution center into the 2018 death of Dawn Sturgis has been released. The report's headline states that the assassination attempt on former Russian spy Sergey Skripal was authorized by Vladimir Putin, who is "morally responsible for the death of a woman poisoned by a nerve agent used in the attack." Lord Hughes, who chaired the inquiry, concluded that the three GRU agents involved were acting on instructions and that the operation to assassinate must have been ordered at the "very highest level by President Putin."

Novichok Nerve Agent: The report details the use of Novichok, a fourth-generation nerve agent designed by the Russians to evade NATO detectors. It is described as "very, very persistent and very, very toxic," with an estimated toxicity 10,000 times greater than agents like chlorine. A quarter of an egg cup of Novichok could have killed thousands of people.

Mechanism of Poisoning: Sergey and Yulia Skripal survived because they experienced a "dermal ingestion" through a door handle, allowing the Novichok to take several hours to affect their organs. Dawn Sturgis, however, inhaled the nerve agent after spraying it from a discarded Nina Ricci perfume bottle, leading to rapid action and death.

Discarded Perfume Bottle: The Novichok perfume bottle is believed to have been discarded by the three GRU agents (Petrov, Boshirov, and Fedotov) before they left the UK. The report highlights the "callousness" of this act, especially given the perpetrators' expertise in CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) weapons.

Sergey Skripal's Status: The report questions whether more could have been done for Sergey Skripal, a double agent who came to the UK in a prisoner swap in 2010. He lived openly in Salisbury for eight years. The report suggests that changing his name or relocating him might have been considered, but it was deemed inappropriate at the time. The current whereabouts of Sergey and Yulia Skripal are unknown, though they are believed to be alive.

Lack of Information for Police: A significant finding is that at the time of the poisoning, neither Wiltshire Police nor counterterror policing had any record of Mr. Skripal's background as a former spy. The report states that such an alert should have been available to senior officers handling the incident.

Public Demonstration of Russian Power: Lord Hughes concluded that the attack was "expected to stand as a public demonstration of Russian power" and that Dawn Sturgis's death was "collateral damage in a plot which amounted to a public statement both for international and domestic consumption that Russia will act decisively in what it regards are its own interests."

Broader Implications: The report is seen as significant for directly linking Vladimir Putin to the attack, underscoring the nature of Russian actions in Syria and Ukraine, with a disregard for collateral damage or civilian casualties. It is considered another crime against humanity and a war crime, providing solace to Dawn Sturgis's family and highlighting the nature of the adversary.

Peace Talks and Negotiation Dynamics

Perceived Futility of Talks: The report suggests that current peace talks are a "pantomime" and that Putin is not interested in genuine peace talks. K. Giles from Chatham House is quoted as saying that people are being "hoodwinked" because while the West sees an opportunity to end the war, Putin sees an opportunity to win it.

Materialists vs. Ideologues: Hamish Breton Gordon suggests that figures like Trump, Wickoff, and Kushner, who are described as materialistic, are attempting to negotiate with Putin, an ideologue, using their own background. He argues that Putin cannot be "bought" and that ideologues will only stop when they are stopped.

Degradation of Language and Diplomacy: The use of the term "casus belli" by Dmitri Medvedev is highlighted as an example of the degradation of language and diplomacy. The report contrasts this with the fact that the Novichok attack in Salisbury, which could have been a cause for war, was met with diplomatic measures like expelling GRU agents.

Final Thoughts and Reflections

Putin's Actions and Russia's Victimhood: Dom Nichols expresses astonishment that on a day when the report on Dawn Sturgis's death is released, Russia still plays the victim and talks about causes for war, when the cause of the current conflict is clear.

The Nature of Putin: Hamish Breton Gordon's upcoming talk, titled "Who is this Putin? Why can we not force him to the peace negotiation table?", aims to explore why Putin cannot be brought to negotiations. He reiterates that Putin is an ideologue who cannot be bought.

Heroism and Freedom: Francis Durnley reflects on the passing of playwright Sir Tom Stoppard and quotes a character from his play "Rock and Roll": "Heroism isn't honest work, the kind that keeps the world going round. It offends normal people and frightens them." This is linked to the case of Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was imprisoned for 25 years. Stoppard's words emphasize the importance of making a fuss and continuing to agitate for freedom, even if the impact is uncertain.

The Importance of Speaking Out: The report concludes by emphasizing that even if actions like Stoppard's opinion piece on Kara-Murza had no discernible impact, the importance of writing and speaking out remains. The work of literary giants and champions of freedom lives on.