Barnaby Joyce vows to wind back what he calls the 'lunatic crusade' | 7.30

Key Concepts:

• 2035 Emissions Target: Australia's internationally binding target for reducing emissions by 2035.
• Net Zero by Mid-Century: The goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
• Climate Wars: The history of political conflict in Australia over climate change policy.
• Economic Self-Sabotage: Barnaby Joyce's characterization of the government's climate policy.
• Business for 75: A group of companies advocating for a 75% emissions reduction by 2035.
• Climate Change Authority: An organization advising the government on climate policy, recommending a 65-75% emissions cut.

Opposition's Internal Divisions:

• David Littleproud backed a grassroots Queensland LNP move to dump support for net zero by mid-century, creating a challenge for the Liberal Party leader trying to rebuild support in urban centers.
• The opposition's internal dispute over climate action is compared to Labour's post-war split over communism, suggesting it could render the coalition unelectable.
• Barnaby Joyce's private members bill to scrap the net-zero target was debated, highlighting the opposition's divisions. He characterized the government's climate policy as "one of the greatest acts of economic self-sabotage in the history of the nation."
• The opposition's climate policy is described as "political kryptonite."

Government's Emissions Performance:

• Australia's climate pollution is 28% lower than in 2005 (the baseline year).
• Emissions levels have essentially stalled since Labor came to power in 2022.
• The 2030 target is a 43% reduction, which is considered a "steep hill to climb."
• The government is working on its 2035 target, expected to be made public within weeks.

2035 Emissions Target Debate:

• The Climate Change Authority is considering recommending a 65-75% emissions cut.
• Frank Yatso, an economist advising the government, notes that "anything with a six in front of it will be enormously ambitious" given the limited time to achieve it.
• Business for 75, a group of almost 400 companies including Atlassian and Fortescue, is advocating for a 75% cut to emissions.
• The group argues that the focus should be on the "positives for economic growth and productivity" rather than the negative aspects of climate policy.

Economic Benefits of Ambitious Targets:

• Deloitte modeling commissioned by Business for 75 shows that a 75% target by 2035 would bring forward business investment and help achieve net zero in the least costly way.
• The modeling suggests that this target would give the country a competitive advantage, increase economic activity and jobs, and lower energy prices.
• The argument is made that "medium to longer term investment in a greener economy will result in lower energy prices because wind and solar are inherently very very cheap."

International Context:

• The Prime Minister will attend the UN General Assembly in New York, where many countries will reveal their 2035 targets.
• Australia's target is particularly important because the government is bidding to host next year's climate summit in Adelaide.
• The Prime Minister will also visit Pacific Islands, where climate impacts are a high priority.
• Australia is described as "one of the richest countries on Earth" and "one of the highest carbon emitting countries per capita," implying a greater responsibility to act.

Political Considerations:

• The government is mindful of the "climate wars" that have plagued Australian politics.
• An ambitious 2035 target could signal resolve to global investors and voters.
• Even a softer target would allow the government to claim it is doing more than the opposition.
• The opposition is accused of uniting around a policy of inaction on climate change, which will harm regional Australia through increased droughts and natural disasters.

Conclusion:

The debate over Australia's 2035 emissions target is highly politicized, with the opposition divided and the government facing pressure to increase its ambition. While the government's current emissions performance is lagging, an ambitious target could unlock significant economic benefits and strengthen Australia's international standing. The key takeaway is that the conversation needs to shift from politics to economics, emphasizing the potential for economic growth and productivity gains through climate action.