Bangladesh to hold first elections since Sheikh Hasina’s overthrow | DW News

Bangladesh Elections 2024: A Nation at a Crossroads

Key Concepts: National Citizen Party (NCP), Jamaat Islami, 2024 Uprising, Political Transition, Grassroots Movement, BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party), Awami League, Political Alliances, Youth Movements, Electoral Gains, Authoritarian Rule.

Introduction

Bangladesh is preparing for elections on February 12th, a pivotal moment following the 2024 uprising that ousted the long-standing government of Sheikh Hasina. This report focuses on the National Citizen Party (NCP), a party born from that uprising, and its current struggles, particularly its controversial alliance with Islamist groups. The analysis explores the challenges of transitioning from protest to power, the NCP’s internal divisions, and the broader implications for Bangladesh’s political future.

The NCP: From Uprising to Electoral Politics

The NCP emerged from the 2024 mass uprising against what was described as an increasingly authoritarian regime. Led by 27-year-old Nah Islam, a former student leader, the party aims to transform revolutionary energy into political representation. Islam emphasizes the significance of this election, stating, “Such an election is extremely rare… It is not just about changing a government but about changing the country itself.” The outcome is seen as determining Bangladesh’s governance and constitutional structure for decades to come.

The Controversial Alliance with Jamaat Islami

Weeks before the election, the NCP made a contentious decision to join an 11-party electoral alliance including Jamaat Islami and other Islamist groups. This move sparked criticism and resignations within the party, raising concerns about compromising its founding ideals. Nah Islam defends the alliance as a necessary strategy to gain parliamentary seats, explaining, “We therefore felt a broader unity was necessary.” However, this decision has deeply divided the NCP, particularly among women who played a crucial role in the 2024 uprising. One dissenting member attributes the alliance to “a failure of leadership” and a lack of experience in national politics, fearing a loss of principles in pursuit of power.

Challenges of Transitioning from Protest to Power

Political analysts highlight a common dilemma for youth-led movements: the difficult transition from protest to power. The NCP’s situation is contrasted with successful transitions in Sri Lanka and Nepal, where revolutionary groups have entered politics and established themselves as significant opposition forces. In Bangladesh, however, the momentum from the uprising appears to be waning. Analysts suggest the NCP “misread what the people expected from the uprising and failed to translate those expectations into politics.” Nah Islam counters this, asserting that entering parliament is not a surrender but a long-term strategy, stating, “We are not in a hurry. We are moving forward with a long-term strategy and prepared for a prolonged struggle.”

Grassroots Support and Regional Disparities

Arafat Ahmed, a Bangladeshi expat living in Berlin, points out that the NCP’s support remains largely concentrated in Dhaka, the political capital. He notes the party struggles to build grassroots movements in other regions of Bangladesh, a country characterized by significant regional diversity and political divisions. He attributes this to the established power structures of the BNP and Awami League, and the difficulty for a new party to gain trust in rural areas where people tend to rely on established political figures. He states the void left by the Awami League has largely been filled by the Bangladesh Jamat Islami.

Concerns Regarding Jamaat Islami’s Ideology

The alliance with Jamaat Islami has raised significant concerns due to the group’s conservative ideology. Arafat Ahmed highlights a recent interview with the NAB Amir (leader) of Jamaat Islami, who stated that a woman could never lead the party, a statement considered particularly jarring given Bangladesh’s history of female leadership under Sheikh Hasina.

Public Disappointment and the Role of Women

Professor Nomi Hussein, from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, describes a general mood of disappointment surrounding the NCP, particularly after its alliance with Jamaat Islami. She notes that many viewed the student movement as progressive and pro-democracy, and are disillusioned by the NCP’s decision. The alliance has led to defections, especially among women and progressive supporters, due to Jamaat Islami’s “murky history” including allegations of war crimes during the 1971 liberation war. Hussein emphasizes the difficulty in gauging public opinion due to a long history of political repression and fear of expressing views freely.

The Current Political Landscape and Future Outlook

Professor Hussein suggests that the BNP, the historically second-largest party, appears to be gaining momentum, boosted by the return of its leader from exile. She notes that many Bangladeshis are eager for the elections to restore normality after a period of political instability and economic hardship. While acknowledging the challenges, Arafat Ahmed expresses optimism about Bangladesh’s future, citing the large youth population’s desire for a better future.

Conclusion

The NCP’s journey reflects a broader challenge facing youth movements globally: how to maintain revolutionary ideals while navigating the complexities of power. The party’s controversial alliance with Jamaat Islami highlights the difficult compromises often required in electoral politics. As Bangladesh heads to the polls, the NCP’s fate, and the broader political landscape, remain uncertain, but the election represents a crucial turning point for the nation’s future. The ballot box has become the next battlefield for Nah Islam and his party, and the outcome will shape Bangladesh for years to come.