Bangladesh’s Gen-Z fights for political ground after ousting Hasina | REUTERS

Key Concepts: National parliamentary election, student-led uprising, National Citizens Party (NCP), family rule politics, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Awami League, Jamaat-e-Islami, International Republican Institute (IRI), opinion polls, strategic gamble, spirit of July uprising, inclusivity, money, muscle and patronage.

Introduction: Post-Uprising Political Landscape in Bangladesh Bangladesh is currently preparing for a national parliamentary election, which follows a significant student-led uprising in July last year (implied 2024). This upheaval led to the ousting of long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who subsequently fled to India. In the wake of these events, a new political party, the National Citizens Party (NCP), was formed in February.

The National Citizens Party (NCP): Formation and Core Promises The NCP was established with a central promise to dismantle decades of "family rule politics" and to break the entrenched influence of the two dominant parties: the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the now-banned Awami League, which was formerly led by Hasina. Nahid Islam, the chief of the NCP, articulated the party's determination to "connect with voters through this election and demonstrate our capabilities publicly," emphasizing that Bangladesh requires these polls to "restore stability."

Significant Challenges Faced by the NCP

• Organizational and Experiential Deficiencies: As a newly formed political entity, the NCP faces considerable operational hurdles. Nahid Islam acknowledged these limitations, stating, "We are a new political party and did not have sufficient time to organize or reach out to the wider public. This election will therefore be a significant challenge for us. We also lack prior experience in contesting national polls."
• Low Public Support and Electoral Performance:
  • Opinion Polls: Data from opinion polls conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) indicate that the NCP currently garners only 6% support, placing it in third position. This figure is substantially lower than the leading Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) at 30% and the hardline Jamaat-e-Islami party, which is projected to secure 26% (second place).
  • Student Body Elections: A notable setback occurred in September when the NCP failed to win a single seat in the student body elections at Dhaka University, the very institution where the July uprising originated.
• Erosion of Uprising's Spirit: A student from Dhaka University expressed concern that "Bangladesh had drifted away from the spirit of July 2024," noting that the leaders of the uprising appeared "out of reach" and no longer engaged with ordinary students. This suggests a growing disconnect between the new political leadership and its grassroots origins.
• Resource Constraints: The party operates with a "thin organization and little funding," which further complicates its efforts to mobilize and compete effectively in the upcoming elections.

Strategic Dilemma: Engaging with Rival Parties

• NCP's Approach: In light of its organizational and financial limitations, the NCP has initiated discussions with rival parties, including the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami.
• Expert Analysis: Professor Ace Shahan's Perspective: Dhaka University professor Ace Shahan characterized these talks as a "strategic gamble."
  • Potential Short-Term Gains: Shahan suggested that collaborating with established parties like the BNP or Jamaat could enable the NCP to "secure some seats and may get a place in the parliament."
  • Significant Long-Term Risks: However, he cautioned that such alliances would necessitate a "compromise on their basic principles the spirit of July uprising," potentially "sacrificing reform or either sacrificing the principles of inclusivity and finding a place for citizens and their rights." Professor Shahan concluded that while the NCP "may win in the short run to get a place in the parliament, but eventually they may disappear from the political space altogether."

NCP's Resilience and Vision for Systemic Change

• Leadership's Determination: Despite the formidable challenges and the strategic dilemmas it faces, the NCP leadership remains resolute. Nahid Islam affirmed their determination to "take on the challenge."
• Commitment to Values and Systemic Reform: Tasnim Jara, a senior leader of the NCP, articulated the party's core struggle: "But the more important challenge we are facing is staying true to our values. Because the system around us is still very much influenced by money, muscle and patronage. We must not allow the system to change us. We must change the system. And that's what we are here to do." This statement underscores the NCP's unwavering commitment to resisting the corrupting influences of the existing political system and driving fundamental, systemic change.

Conclusion: Main Takeaways and Future Outlook The National Citizens Party, born from a significant student-led uprising, faces an arduous journey in Bangladesh's upcoming parliamentary elections. While it aims to dismantle "family rule politics" and restore national stability, its nascent status, lack of organizational depth, limited experience, and low public support—as evidenced by IRI polls and its performance in Dhaka University student elections—present substantial hurdles. The party's consideration of alliances with established rivals, though offering a potential pathway to parliamentary representation, carries the significant risk of compromising its founding principles and the "spirit of July uprising," which could ultimately lead to its long-term political irrelevance. Despite these formidable challenges, the NCP leadership remains committed to its core values and the ambitious goal of transforming a political system heavily influenced by "money, muscle and patronage," highlighting a determined, yet precarious, pursuit of systemic change.