Bangladesh's biggest elections since independence | BBC News

Key Concepts

• Awami League: The previously ruling political party in Bangladesh, led by Sheikh Hasina, overthrown in the 2024 uprising.
• Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP): A major opposition party, led by Tariq Rahman (currently in exile), seeking to regain power.
• National Citizen Party (NCP): A new political party formed by leaders of the 2024 youth uprising.
• Jamaata Islami: An Islamist party with which the NCP has formed an alliance, causing internal dissent.
• 2024 Uprising: A youth-led protest movement that resulted in the overthrow of the Awami League government and an estimated 1,400 deaths.
• Sheikh Hasina: The former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, who fled to India following the uprising.
• Tariq Rahman: The leader of the BNP, currently in self-imposed exile.

Political Landscape Following the 2024 Uprising

The upcoming election in Bangladesh marks a significant turning point, being the first since the 2024 youth uprising led to the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government. This uprising, met with a “deadly crackdown” according to the UN, resulted in an estimated 1,400 fatalities and forced Hasina to seek refuge in India after 15 years of rule characterized as “increasingly authoritarian.” The current political climate is defined by a desire for change, particularly amongst first-time voters.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its Prospects

The BNP, led by Tariq Rahman (currently in exile), is positioned as a frontrunner in the election. Previously suppressed under Hasina’s rule – with “thousands” of members jailed and the last election boycotted – the party is now able to campaign openly. Asma, a potential first-time voter interviewed by the BBC, expresses a common sentiment: “We couldn't vote. We were threatened. We want our country to be beautiful, happy, better jobs for our children.” She directly attributes the possibility of free voting to Hasina’s removal, stating, “Fascist Hassa did not allow any real elections. Now she's gone, we can vote freely.” Despite being an established party, the BNP benefits from the widespread dissatisfaction with the previous regime.

The National Citizen Party (NCP): From Uprising to Political Alliance

The NCP represents a new force in Bangladeshi politics, emerging directly from the leadership of the 2024 uprising. Nahid Islam, a former uprising leader now heading the NCP, acknowledges the “many challenges” faced by a newly formed party. However, the NCP’s attempt to broaden its appeal through a multi-party alliance with Jamaata Islami, an Islamist party, has sparked internal conflict. This alliance has led to the resignation of dozens of NCP members, including Tasnim Jar, who is now running as an independent candidate. Jar’s concern centers on the perceived compromise of the NCP’s original principles: “The concern is when we align with the old political forces, that is not what attracted people like us to the politics in in the first place. The trust from people for established political forces has eroded because we've seen promises…” The NCP is attempting to counter concerns about its alliance by emphasizing a secular message: “everyone irrespective of his faith or any consideration everyone will enjoy the same rights here in Bangladesh.”

The Awami League in Hiding and its Claims

Despite being banned from contesting the election, the Awami League maintains a presence, albeit forced into hiding. An unnamed Awami League politician interviewed by the BBC asserts that excluding the party renders a “free and fair election…no way possible.” While acknowledging “some individuals within the Awami League have made mistakes,” the politician insists that “love for Sheikh Hassina and love for the Awami League exists in the hearts of every ordinary Bangladeshi citizen.” The party vehemently denies all allegations against it, labeling them “false and fabricated.”

Election Dynamics and Future Outlook

The election is characterized by a palpable sense of hope for change, alongside lingering concerns about the potential for a return to past political patterns. The alliance between the NCP and Jamaata Islami introduces a complex dynamic, potentially alienating voters who supported the uprising based on secular principles. The Awami League’s continued presence, even in the shadows, suggests a resilience that cannot be ignored. The outcome of the election will determine whether Bangladesh can truly break from its past and forge a new path towards a more democratic and equitable future.