Back to the Kremlin: Will Witkoff plan seal Ukraine's fate? • FRANCE 24 English

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript, maintaining the original language and technical precision:

Key Concepts

• Moscow Peace Plan: An alleged peace proposal originating from Moscow, reportedly involving a 28-point plan.
• Steve Witkoff: Former US President Donald Trump's envoy, involved in negotiations with Russia.
• Jared Kushner: US President's son-in-law, also involved in the negotiations.
• Kremlin: The seat of the Russian government.
• Prosk: A key eastern city in Ukraine, claimed by Russia to have been taken after an 18-month siege.
• Nordstream 2 Pipeline: A controversial gas pipeline linking Russia to Germany, sabotaged.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Approximately $300 billion of Russian central bank assets frozen in Europe.
• Oil Sanctions: Proposed tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, which was reportedly delayed by Trump.
• Kleptocrat: A ruler who steals money from their own country.
• Grift, Graft, and Gluttony: Described as the motivations of Putin and Trump.
• Frozen Russian Assets Seizure: The debate and technicalities surrounding the seizure of Russian assets held in Europe.
• European Geopolitical Player: The aspiration for Europe to become a more significant geopolitical force.
• Ukrainian Resilience and Leadership: The ability of Ukraine to maintain democratic processes and anti-corruption efforts amidst war.

Alleged Moscow Peace Plan and US Envoy's Involvement

The discussion centers on an alleged peace plan originating from Moscow, which has led to intense diplomatic activity. Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's envoy, has made his sixth visit to the Kremlin this year, accompanied by Jared Kushner and an interpreter. Notably, Witkoff has not yet visited Kyiv. This initiative is framed as a potential "art of the deal" approach by the current White House, aiming to trade war for commercial ventures.

Putin's Stance and Threats

Vladimir Putin, prior to meeting Witkoff, staged a trade fair with China and then addressed the situation. He stated, "We do not intend to fight Europe. I've said this a hundred times, but if Europe suddenly decides to wage war against us and starts it, we are ready right now." He characterized Russia's actions in Ukraine as "surgical and careful," not "war in the full modern sense of the word." Putin also warned, "If Europe chooses to start a war, the situation could very quickly reach a point where there'll be no one left for us to negotiate with."

Expert Analysis of Putin's Statements

Craig Capitas, former Moscow correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, dismisses Putin's statements as "same noise we've heard for the past four years... for the past 25 years of the Putin regime." He criticizes the US administration's approach to the Kremlin, suggesting those making deals are "as dumb as a sack of hair" and "don't know the first damn thing about Russia." Bill Browder, CEO of Hermitage Capital, concurs, stating, "there's nothing new here."

The US Plan as the Only Option (Imperfect)

Lisa Yasco, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, acknowledges that the US plan, "imperfect as it may be," is currently the only one on the table. She emphasizes the importance of using this momentum to "reveal the truth on every side" and ensure Ukraine's voice is heard, contributing to a "European rethinking on what the future of European and not only security shall be." She finds Putin's readiness to attack new countries in Europe and his treatment of Americans as "partners in this Russian plan" to be "very serious" and "very disturbing."

The Nature of the Negotiations and US-Russia Dynamics

Mariana Bjerin, a research associate at MIT, highlights that Putin is treating the US as "interlocutors" on the Ukraine issue. She contrasts this with the Biden administration's principle of "no talking about Ukraine without Ukraine in the room," a principle the Trump administration has disregarded by engaging directly with the Kremlin behind Ukraine's back.

Restraining Ukraine, Not Russia

A key conceptual foundation of these negotiations, according to Bjerin, is that they focus on restraining Ukraine, the victim, rather than Russia, the aggressor. The core principle remains the extent to which Ukraine will suffer constraints and punishment as a result of any peace deal.

Financial Dealings and Potential Profit Motives

The Wall Street Journal reported on an October meeting in Florida between Steve Witkoff and Putin's pointman, Kirill Dmitriev, a US-educated financier. Jared Kushner was also present. Dmitriev reportedly proposed a plan for US companies to access approximately $300 billion of frozen Russian central bank assets for US-Russian investment projects and a US-led reconstruction of Ukraine. The plan also suggested US and Russian companies could exploit Arctic mineral wealth. The Wall Street Journal investigation points to lobbying by individuals close to Trump and his son, seeking concessions, including for the Nordstream 2 pipeline.

Oil Deals and "Friends and Partners"

Bill Browder argues that this Wall Street Journal story is "one of the most consequential stories" regarding what is truly happening. He believes Trump's sympathy for Putin and antagonism towards Zelensky are explained by the prospect of a small group of people close to the president making "a lot of money out of Russia." He characterizes the "peace plan" as a "surrender plan for Ukraine" designed to profit a select few, against the interests of Ukraine, Europe, and most Americans.

The Oil Sanctions Gambit

Browder explains a larger strategic play: a proposal by Senator Lindsey Graham to impose 500% tariffs on any country buying Russian oil, which had 85 Senate co-sponsors. Trump initially held this up but then gave permission for it to proceed. Putin, in a panic, allegedly pushed the 28-point peace plan, which was leaked to Axios. Browder believes this was a tactic to "put this oil sanctions into the long grass into the back burner," preventing devastating oil sanctions and allowing for negotiations that ultimately benefit Putin.

Internal White House Dynamics and Negotiating Tactics

Mariana Bjerin suggests the Trump administration aimed for a deal "in 24 hours," but this proved harder than anticipated. Trump is seen as creating a sense of urgency to push a deal, with the outcome being secondary to claiming a "big win." His approach is described as transactional and akin to "doing business deals behind everyone's back," running the country like a company. Witkoff and Dmitriev, described as having a history of relationship, allegedly "hashed out on the back of the napkin some 28 point plan." The poor translation of this plan revealed its Russian origins.

Ukrainian Engagement and European Position

Lisa Yasco notes that Ukrainian President Zelensky and Emmanuel Macron spoke with Steve Witkoff, not directly with the US Secretary of State or President. She sees communication as a good sign and highlights progress on a "United European position," with European parliamentarians showing solidarity and a strong will for a firm stance. She observes Europe is "reinventing its own strength" and that Ukrainian defense is part of this. However, she finds Putin's apparent happiness and satisfaction with the American delegation's visit to be a "not good sign" and is "not optimistic about these talks."

Historical Context of US-Russia Relations and Transactional Diplomacy

Craig Capitas draws parallels to the post-Soviet era, where successive US presidents believed in turning Russia into a partner through deals. He recalls Bill Clinton's first visit to Moscow in 1994, where the idea was that deals would lead to Russia becoming a Western-like state. He notes that former US Ambassador Robert Strauss believed spending money on Russians now would prevent a "fascist situation" later. However, Capitas argues that these administrations were warned they were being "played." He states that Western companies involved in joint ventures with Russia were eventually "kicked out" once they had acquired technology and access to resources.

Grift, Graft, and Gluttony as Motivations

Capitas asserts that the current dynamic is the same, with the key difference being that Putin and Trump share "grift, graft, and gluttony." He explains gluttony as their desire for money and its accumulation. He believes there is "no deal that's going to come out of this" and that Putin will continue his aggressive actions. He considers Witkoff and Kushner to be "so far out of their league."

Misreading Russia and the Reality of the Situation

Bill Browder agrees with Capitas, calling Putin a "kleptocrat, a crook." He recounts his own experience in Russia, where initial success turned into expulsion, his offices being raided, and his lawyer being tortured and killed. He warns that anyone believing they are operating with goodwill and honesty with these individuals is "completely naive." He also finds it ironic that those expecting profit from Russia are naive, as "the Russians will not let anybody make a penny." He concludes that Witkoff and Kushner will be "selling out the Ukrainians for in hopes of profit and they're not even going to get that profit."

Russia's Economic Position and European Dependence

Mariana Bjerin acknowledges that Russia has performed better than expected under Western sanctions, partly due to Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas. She argues that the theory that commercial engagement would make Russia behave has proven wrong, citing Germany's Nordstream 2 deal in 2015, after the annexation of Crimea. She finds it ironic that Trump, an anti-globalist, is falling into the same trap. She disagrees with Capitas that early 90s relations were purely transactional, recalling genuine optimism and the "end of history" narrative. She points to the 1994 trilateral deal where Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in exchange for assurances, highlighting the repeated failure of the hope that Russia would become a cooperative country.

The Fall of Prosk and the Reality on the Ground

The announcement of Russia's seizure of Prosk is met with little surprise by Lisa Yasco. She states that Putin "wants more and more" and that strikes on Ukrainian cities continue, with no indication of Putin wanting peace. She describes the reality of power cuts and the constant threat of attacks, emphasizing that "absolute capitulation of Ukraine... is not going to happen."

Europe's Reinvention and the Need for Partners

Yasco sees this as a "momentum when Europe is reinventing own strength" and that Ukrainian defense is part of it. However, she notes the difficulty in communicating with "some of the people in American politics right now." She believes a strong European position might influence Trump. She expresses concern over news of the US no longer financing the war and sending weapons, noting that European countries are buying US weapons.

The Missing Element: Justice

A fundamental question missed in peace talks, according to Yasco, is justice. She questions when war criminals will face tribunals, when reparations will be made, and what will happen with frozen assets, especially when they are being considered for use by Russian and American economies. She states, "Ukrainians will never agree to that because we know that without justice, we cannot plant any secure future."

US Diplomatic Absence and the Need for Action

Craig Capitas notes the US Secretary of State skipping a NATO foreign ministers' meeting, suggesting he "doesn't have anything to say." He reiterates that US institutions lack the necessary "educational background" and "experience on the ground" to effectively negotiate with Russia. He emphasizes that the current situation is not about deals but a war, and appeasement with Putin is not an option.

Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Efforts and Resilience

Lisa Yasco highlights that recent shakeups in Ukraine's executive branch, including the removal of Zelensky's energy and defense ministers due to corruption scandals, demonstrate Ukraine's capability for transparency and its democratic nature even during wartime. She states that President Zelensky listens to both international partners and domestic society. She points to the functioning of anti-corruption agencies amidst daily bombings and blackouts as a testament to "Ukrainian resilience and Ukrainian leadership." However, she stresses the need for "results," including final conclusions in corruption investigations and "real peace with justice."

Frozen Russian Assets: A European Dilemma

The discussion turns to the issue of frozen Russian assets. While the European Central Bank will not guarantee a massive loan for Kyiv, France and Germany want to seize Russian assets held in Belgium. The US is reportedly against this, and Belgium's prime minister is hesitant to bear the responsibility alone. Emmanuel Macron expressed respect for Belgium's prime minister's technical questions and the aim to finalize a solution by the next European Council.

Optimism on Frozen Assets

Bill Browder expresses optimism, arguing that if Europe allows Russia to succeed, it will face millions of refugees and the need to reinforce its borders, incurring immense costs. He states that Europe has an "existential motivation to support Ukraine." He contrasts America's past support with its current lack thereof under Trump. He believes Europe will find a way to fund Ukraine's support, either through taxes or by utilizing Putin's money.

EU Decision-Making and Leadership

Mariana Bjerin views the frozen assets issue as indicative of the EU's "lack of decision making and leadership." She notes the EU has been reactive, but a "triumvirate of willing powers" (Germany, France, UK) is emerging. She points out that the issue has been on the table for years. She expresses concern that a potential normalization of relations with Russia could make Belgium apprehensive about seizing assets.

Italy's Stance and Europe's Proactive Stance

Lisa Yasco believes Italy and many European countries are standing firm, understanding that Europe must be proactive. She acknowledges that the EU system has historically been technocratic and economically focused, lacking political vision and leadership. However, she sees change, citing Germany's shift on defense discussions. She emphasizes the need for "real actions implementations, not just words and statements," and warns that "Russia is never sleeping" and constantly seeks to undermine Western democracies.

Macron's Visit to China and the Role of Oil Revenue

Emmanuel Macron's upcoming visit to Beijing, coinciding with China's foreign minister's visit to Moscow, is noted. Bill Browder highlights that Putin's ability to continue the war is funded by China, India, and Turkey, who buy his crude oil, providing him with approximately $400 billion since the war began. He suggests that imposing punishments on oil refineries in these countries, forcing them to choose between doing business with the West or Russia, would stop the war.

Conclusion

The discussion reveals a complex geopolitical landscape where a US-led peace initiative, allegedly driven by financial interests and transactional diplomacy, is met with skepticism and concern from Ukraine and European allies. The effectiveness of sanctions, the role of frozen Russian assets, and the need for a just resolution are central to the debate. While Europe is seen as stepping up its role, the US's commitment under the current administration is questioned, highlighting a divergence in approaches and a struggle to find common ground in confronting Russian aggression. The underlying theme is the persistent challenge of dealing with a Russia that is perceived as untrustworthy and driven by self-interest, with the potential for significant financial gains influencing diplomatic maneuvers.