Back to autocracy - A short-lived win for democracy in Tunisia | DW Documentary

Key Concepts

• Arab Spring: The series of pro-democracy uprisings that began in Tunisia in 2010.
• Jasmine Revolution: The 2011 Tunisian uprising that ended the 23-year rule of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
• Kais Saied: A former constitutional law professor who rose to power as an anti-establishment outsider and transitioned into an authoritarian leader.
• Democratic Backsliding: The erosion of democratic institutions, separation of powers, and civil liberties.
• Decree 54: A 2022 law ostensibly targeting "fake news" that has been used to suppress freedom of speech and persecute journalists and activists.
• Deep State: The entrenched military, police, and judicial apparatus that has historically served Tunisian autocrats.
• Great Replacement Theory: A xenophobic conspiracy theory used by Saied to scapegoat sub-Saharan African migrants.

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1. The Rise of Kais Saied

Kais Saied emerged as a political anomaly following the 2011 revolution. As a constitutional law professor with no party affiliation, he cultivated an image of incorruptibility, intellectual rigor, and moral authority.

• Communication Style: He utilized "classic old-school Arabic" and a monotonous, calm delivery that supporters interpreted as the "voice of God" or the "absolute truth."
• Political Strategy: He positioned himself as an outsider, rejecting the parliamentary system as a "system of corruption" designed for elites to "divide the cake."
• 2019 Election: Capitalizing on public frustration with the post-revolutionary political class, Saied won the presidency in a landslide, securing over twice the votes of his opponent in the runoff.

2. The Dismantling of Democracy

Saied utilized the political gridlock and economic instability of the post-2019 period to consolidate power, framing his actions as necessary to "save" the nation.

• July 25, 2021 (The Power Grab): Citing an emergency, Saied suspended parliament, dismissed the government, and began ruling by decree.
• Judicial Erosion: In February 2022, he disbanded the Supreme Judicial Council, effectively ending the independence of the judiciary.
• Constitutional Referendum: He introduced a new constitution that abolished impeachment processes and shifted the country from a parliamentary-presidential hybrid to a system where the president holds near-absolute power.

3. Repression and Human Rights

The post-2021 era has been marked by the systematic targeting of political opposition, civil society, and marginalized groups.

• Political Persecution: Figures like Chaima Issa were arrested on charges of "conspiracy against state security." Trials have resulted in mass sentencing, with terms ranging from 13 to 66 years.
• Freedom of Speech: Decree 54 has been weaponized to silence dissent. Journalists, bloggers, and even TikTokers face imprisonment for criticizing the government.
• Scapegoating Migrants: Saied promoted the "Great Replacement" theory to blame sub-Saharan African migrants for Tunisia’s demographic and economic woes, leading to state-sanctioned raids and forced deportations into desert regions.

4. International Perspectives and Economic Crisis

• EU Pragmatism: Despite the collapse of Tunisian democracy, the European Union signed a 1 billion euro migration deal with Saied in 2023. The EU prioritized Saied’s role as a "border guard" to curb irregular migration over human rights concerns.
• Economic Deadlock: Saied rejected an IMF bailout package due to the required austerity measures. This has led to severe shortages of basic goods (bread, sugar, milk) and a deepening economic crisis.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The Tunisian experience serves as a cautionary tale regarding the fragility of democratic transitions. What began as a beacon of hope in the Arab Spring has regressed into an authoritarian state under Kais Saied. By exploiting public disillusionment with corrupt political parties and economic stagnation, Saied successfully dismantled the separation of powers. Today, Tunisia faces a "dead end" characterized by the absence of civil liberties, the weaponization of the judiciary, and a reliance on repressive tactics to maintain control, leaving the country in a state of precarious instability.