Automating Healthcare, thermodynamic computing, and product velocity | E2155

Key Concepts

• Medical Referral Process: The system by which patients are directed from primary care physicians (PCPs) to specialists.
• Patient Conversion: The process of a referred patient actually receiving care from a specialist.
• Lead vs. Patient: The concept of treating patients as leads who need to be actively engaged and guided through the healthcare process.
• Payer Guidelines: Rules and requirements set by insurance companies that determine whether a medical service will be covered.
• EMR (Electronic Medical Record): Digital systems like Epic used to store and manage patient medical information.
• Tener Network: A platform providing visibility into the referral process for both providers and patients.
• Thermodynamic Computing: A novel approach to computing that leverages probabilistic elements for greater energy efficiency, particularly in AI applications.
• Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Computing: Traditional computing relies on definite states (0 or 1), while probabilistic computing embraces uncertainty and randomness.
• Energy-Based Models: A type of machine learning model that uses energy functions to represent the relationships between variables.
• Pit (Probabilistic Bit): A unit of information in probabilistic computing that can exist in a state between 0 and 1, allowing for fractional bit operations.
• Heterogeneous Compute: The integration of different types of computing architectures (e.g., GPUs and thermodynamic computers) to optimize performance.
• ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue): A measure of the recurring revenue a company expects to receive in a year.
• CPM (Cost Per Mille): The cost an advertiser pays for one thousand views or impressions of an advertisement.
• ICP (Ideal Customer Profile): A description of the type of customer that is most likely to buy a company's products or services.

Tener: Streamlining Medical Referrals with AI

The Problem: A Broken Referral System

• Inefficient Patient Capture: Over 50% of patients referred to specialists in the US do not get captured and receive the necessary care.
• Referral Funnel Analogy: The referral process is likened to a marketing funnel, but with significant friction and drop-off points.
• Data Overload: Specialists receive large volumes of patient data (chart history, labs, notes) that create backlogs and delays.
• Lack of Patient Engagement: Patients are often not contacted promptly or provided with clear information about costs and requirements.
• Consequences: Untreated diseases, increased hospital readmissions, and overall inefficiencies in the healthcare system.
• Example: A PCP refers a patient to a neurologist, but the patient never gets contacted or doesn't have the necessary paperwork, leading to delays or missed care.

Tener's Solution: AI-Powered Automation and Patient Engagement

• Focus on Specialists: Tener primarily serves providers who receive referred patients.
• AI Model for Payer Guidelines: Tener has developed an AI model that interprets complex payer guidelines to determine medical necessity and coverage.
• Data Ingestion and Interpretation: The AI model ingests and interprets patient data, including documents received via fax and EMR notes.
• Triage and Prioritization: Tener helps providers triage patients, identify missing information, and prioritize cases based on payer guidelines.
• Patient Engagement: Tener engages patients early in the process, providing information about costs, required documentation, and potential roadblocks.
• Impact: Increased patient conversion rates (50-70% to 70-90%), reduced denials, and improved staff efficiency.
• Example: Tener contacts a patient within 5 minutes of referral, informs them of the cost, and identifies missing documentation, significantly increasing the likelihood of a successful visit.

The Tener Network: Visibility and Patient Experience

• Visibility for All: The Tener Network provides a platform for both providers and patients to track the referral process.
• Domino's Pizza Tracker Analogy: The patient experience is inspired by the Domino's pizza tracker, providing real-time updates and transparency.
• Patient Benefits: Patients gain access to information about costs, eligibility for services, and the status of their referral.
• Provider Benefits: Providers gain visibility into patient progress and can identify bottlenecks in the referral process.
• Conversion Lifts: The Tener Network has demonstrated significant conversion lifts by providing a digital and user-friendly experience.

Future Directions: Expanding Services and Patient Reach

• Net New Services: Tener aims to identify additional services that patients are eligible for and facilitate referrals for those services.
• Example: A patient referred for a CGM (Continuous Glucose Monitor) may also be eligible for other diabetes-related services.
• Focus on Problem Solving: Tener prioritizes solving problems for customers rather than simply selling software.

Challenges and Opportunities in the Healthcare Market

• Complexity and Regulation: The healthcare market is highly regulated and complex, with long sales cycles and numerous stakeholders.
• AI in Healthcare: Tener focuses on automating document flow and administrative tasks, rather than solely on medical imaging and diagnostics.
• Market Opportunity: Despite the challenges, the healthcare market represents a large and growing opportunity for technology companies.

Extropic: Thermodynamic Computing for AI

The Problem: Energy Consumption of AI

• Scaling AI Requires More Compute: The demand for AI is driving a need for more compute power.
• Energy Intensive: Current AI models, particularly those used for reasoning, require significant energy consumption.
• Data Center Expansion: Hyperscalers are building data centers with multiple nuclear reactors to meet the energy demands of AI.
• Diminishing Returns: Scaling training compute yields diminishing returns in terms of performance.

Extropic's Solution: Thermodynamic Computing

• Probabilistic Algorithms: Extropic is building computers that are designed to run probabilistic algorithms, which are becoming increasingly important in AI.
• Probabilistic Transistors: The company is leveraging the natural probabilistic behavior of transistors at low current levels.
• Energy Efficiency: Thermodynamic computing has the potential to consume far less power than traditional computing architectures.
• Energy-Based Models: Extropic is focusing on energy-based models, which are more parameter efficient and data efficient.
• Brain Inspiration: The brain serves as an inspiration for Extropic's approach, as it is a highly efficient thermodynamic computer.
• Pits (Probabilistic Bits): Extropic's computers use pits, which can exist in a state between 0 and 1, allowing for fractional bit operations.

Technology and Architecture

• Room Temperature Operation: Extropic has developed a process for operating thermodynamic computers at room temperature.
• Heterogeneous Compute: The company envisions a future where thermodynamic computers are integrated with traditional computing architectures.
• Compiler and Software Stack: Extropic is developing a compiler and software stack to enable developers to program its computers.
• Energy Efficiency Gains: Extropic has demonstrated energy efficiency gains of up to 10 million times greater than diffusion models running on GPUs.

Commercialization and Market

• Target Customers: Extropic is targeting hyperscalers, foundation AI model companies, and companies that want to run their own inference in-house.
• Dev Kits and Cards: The company plans to sell dev kits and cards that can be integrated into existing servers.
• Ecosystem Effect: Extropic aims to create an ecosystem similar to Nvidia's CUDA, with software tools and a community of developers.
• Early Adopters: The company is targeting early adopters such as hedge funds, defense companies, and AI labs.

Future Applications

• Robotics: Thermodynamic computing could enable fully autonomous robots with on-device AI processing.
• AR/VR: The technology could enable more compact and energy-efficient AR/VR devices.

Challenges and Risks

• Hardware Development: Hardware development is capital intensive and requires significant expertise.
• Market Adoption: The market may be skeptical of a new computing paradigm.
• Competition: Extropic faces competition from established players in the GPU market.

Beehive: Building a Vertically Integrated Platform for Creators

Beehive's Growth and Revenue

• ARR: Beehive has scaled to $20 million in ARR as of a few weeks ago.
• Total Revenue Run Rate: The company has a total revenue run rate of $30 million, including revenue from its ad network and Boost.
• Product Velocity: Beehive has a high product velocity, consistently shipping new features and updates.

Beehive vs. Substack: A Platform vs. Infrastructure Approach

• Amazon vs. Shopify Analogy: Beehive is likened to Shopify, providing infrastructure and tools for creators to build their own brands and businesses. Substack is likened to Amazon, owning the customer relationship and distribution.
• No Revenue Cut: Beehive does not take a cut of revenue from its users, unlike Substack.
• Centralized Application: Beehive does not plan to build a centralized application, as it believes that platforms that get in between creators and their audiences ultimately harm the creators.

The Newsletter Market and Beyond

• Market Size: The newsletter market is large and growing, with opportunities to onboard new creators and diversify content formats.
• Email is Not Going Away: Email remains a powerful channel for direct communication with audiences.
• Expanding Content Support: Beehive is exploring ways to expand support for other types of content inside of email, such as videos and podcasts.

The Three Pillars of Beehive's Strategy

• Email: Beehive owns the newsletter space and is exploring opportunities to expand into marketing emails and transactional emails.
• Website: Beehive acquired a website builder company and is building a vertically integrated website builder that includes a CMS and newsletter functionality.
• Monetization: Beehive offers paid subscriptions and an ad network, providing creators with multiple ways to monetize their content.

Potential Risks and Challenges

• Execution Risk: Beehive is trying to build three companies in one, which is a complex and challenging undertaking.
• Competition: Beehive operates in a hyper-competitive space, with well-funded competitors.

The Future of Media and Content Creation

• Owning Your Audience: The key to success in the media landscape is owning your audience and distribution.
• Newsletter First: Companies that are newsletter first and own their audience distribution are more likely to succeed.
• Subscription First: New business models like subscription first are also gaining traction.

Conclusion

The speaker is bullish on Beehive's future, believing that the company has the right strategy and team to succeed in the long term. The company's focus on vertical integration, creator empowerment, and multiple monetization options positions it well for continued growth.