Australia’s warship deal with Japan helps plug gaps in current navy capabilities: Expert

Key Concepts

• Defense Export Deal (Largest for Japan)
• Naval Surface Combatant Fleet Expansion (Australia)
• Australia-Japan Defense Relationship
• Reciprocal Access Agreement
• Regional Naval Balance (Indo-Pacific)
• China's Naval Buildup
• Maritime Trade and Security (Australia)
• Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
• AUS pact (Australia, US, UK)
• Regional Cooperation

1. Significance of the Australia-Japan Frigate Deal

• Landmark Agreement: The deal is described as a landmark agreement for both Australia and Japan due to two main reasons:
  • It is Japan's largest defense export deal ever signed, with a value initially stated as $10 billion but expected to exceed that amount by the time all 11 ships are built over the next 10 years.
  • It expands Australia's naval surface combatant fleet, which is deemed necessary.
• Naval Fleet Expansion: Australia currently has 10 surface combatants, and analysis suggests a need for 20 due to its status as an island nation. This deal helps address that need.
• Evolving Relationship: The Australia-Japan defense relationship has rapidly evolved in the last 10 years, marked by the signing of a reciprocal access agreement and a joint declaration on security cooperation in 2022.
• Defense Export Role: The deal will bolster Japan as a defense exporter in the region.
• Rebuilding Australia's Navy: The deal will assist Australia in rebuilding its navy.

2. Impact on Australia's Strategic Needs

• Maritime Dependence: Australia is heavily dependent on maritime trade, with 99% of its trade occurring through the maritime domain. 91% of Australia's fuel is imported via seaborn supply.
• Exclusive Economic Zone: Australia possesses the third largest exclusive economic zone (EEZ) globally and is the fifth largest shipping user, making the protection of its maritime domain crucial.
• Aging Fleet: Australia's surface combatant fleet is aging, with ANZAC class ships commissioned between 1996 and 2006, necessitating urgent updates and expansion.
• Investment in Naval Capability: The size of Australia's maritime domain and dependencies justifies the investment in increased naval capabilities.

3. Regional Naval Balance and China's Influence

• Naval Arms Race: There has been a naval arms race in the Indo-Pacific over the last 15 years.
• China's Buildup: China has approximately 370 warships, submarines, and carrier aircraft, with expectations of increasing to over 500 in the next 5 years.
• Destabilization: This rapid naval buildup by China has destabilized the region, exemplified by activities near Taiwan and in the South China Sea, including aggression towards the Philippines.
• Regional Response: Countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea are bolstering their naval capabilities in response.
• Australia's Interest: Australia's expansion of ships is primarily about protecting its own interests and the size of its maritime domain, though China's behavior in the region has influenced the timing of these investments.

4. Japan's Role as a Regional Defense Exporter

• Shift in Policy: Since lifting its arm export ban in 2014, Japan is becoming a more active player in regional defense industries.
• Past Deals: Japan has exported Coast Guard ships and reached an agreement with the Philippines for secondhand ships.
• Growing Confidence: Other countries are likely to engage Japan on defense exports, viewing the Australia-Japan deal as a sign of confidence.
• Competition: Japan faces competition from South Korea in shipbuilding and submarine construction.

5. Relationship with the AUS pact

• Capability Agreement: The AUS pact is primarily a capability agreement focused on Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, with elements of signaling and deterring China.
• Complementary Roles: The AUS pact and the frigate deal are linked by Australia's recognition of its need for a strong navy to protect its maritime domain. This includes both nuclear-powered submarines and a large surface combatant fleet.
• Regional Balance: Australia aims to contribute to a regional balance of power that prevents coercion by any specific country.

6. Notable Quotes

• Jennifer Parker: "...Australia has really come alive to the fact that it is an island nation. It does need to be able to protect its maritime domain and to do that it needs a strong navy which requires nuclearpowered submarines but also a large surface combatant fleet."

7. Synthesis/Conclusion

The Australia-Japan frigate deal represents a significant development for both countries. For Japan, it marks its largest defense export deal and solidifies its position as a regional defense exporter. For Australia, it addresses critical needs to expand and modernize its naval capabilities to protect its vast maritime domain and crucial trade routes, especially in light of China's growing naval presence and regional activities. The deal complements the AUS pact and reinforces Australia's commitment to contributing to a regional balance of power.