Australia's defence wake-up call | Insiders On Background

Key Concepts

• Drone warfare and unmanned systems
• Artificial intelligence (AI) in combat
• 3D printing in military applications
• Decentralized defense procurement
• Vulnerability of air bases
• Defense spending and GDP percentage
• ORCUS submarine program
• Threat assessment and public communication

Ukraine's Drone Warfare Innovations

• Audacious Drone Strikes: Ukraine executed long-range drone strikes on multiple Russian airfields, some thousands of kilometers apart.
• Low-Cost, High-Impact: The attacks utilized inexpensive, readily available drones launched from trucks, causing significant damage (estimated 10-20 long-range bombers destroyed).
• Russian Infrastructure Exploitation: The drones were controlled using the Russian telecommunications network (Russian SIM cards), with AI as a backup control system.
• AI-Powered Targeting: The AI was trained to identify Russian bombers, distinguishing them from museum aircraft.
• Extensive Planning: The operation was reportedly planned over 18 months.
• Self-Sufficiency: Ukraine is increasingly self-sufficient in drone production, aiming for 100% domestically sourced components.
• Naval Drones: Ukraine has successfully used naval drones (surface and semi-submersible) to push the Russian navy out of large parts of the Black Sea, despite not having a significant surface navy itself.
• Land-Based Drone Warfare: A major battle in Lipy demonstrated the effectiveness of using drones exclusively to defeat Russian forces.
• Independent Drone Service: Ukraine has established an independent unmanned systems force, highlighting the strategic importance of drones. This force acts as a central nervous system, linking frontline experiences with industry for rapid feedback and adaptation.
• Rapid Drone Development: Ukraine is releasing new long-range strike drones every 2-3 months.

The Role of AI and 3D Printing

• AI Applications: AI is used for:
  • Last-mile targeting (especially when drones are jammed).
  • Fighting through jamming by finding clear frequencies.
  • Controlling multiple drones simultaneously.
  • Strategic planning for long-range strikes using imagery analysis.
• 3D Printing Applications: 3D printing is used for:
  • Prototyping new drone designs.
  • Printing repair parts.
  • Mass-producing drone components.
• Munitions: While 3D printing is not yet used for explosives production due to safety concerns, it is rapidly advancing in other areas.

Australia's Defense Posture and Challenges

• Slow Adoption: Australia has made limited progress in understanding and adopting unmanned systems across air, land, and sea.
• Bureaucratic Obstruction: Bureaucratic hurdles hinder units from experimenting with and procuring drones.
• Centralized Procurement: Australia's centralized approach to defense procurement contrasts with Ukraine's decentralized model, which fosters innovation.
• Decentralization Recommendation: Decentralizing drone procurement, similar to how the army handles boots, would allow units to experiment, learn, and suggest improvements.
• Vulnerability of Air Bases: Australian air bases are vulnerable to drone attacks, similar to the attacks on Russian airfields.
• Defense Strategies: Defending against drone attacks requires a combination of small radars, microwave electronic warfare, and drone interceptors.
• ORCUS and Defense Spending: There's an imbalance in Australia's defense spending, with a focus on a small number of expensive systems (like ORCUS submarines) at the expense of cheaper, more numerous platforms.
• GDP Percentage Debate: The debate over defense spending as a percentage of GDP continues, with some arguing that 2% is insufficient due to inflation and evolving threats.
• Efficiency Concerns: Concerns exist about the number of senior military officers and bureaucrats slowing down decision-making and innovation.
• Cultural Issues: A culture of centralized decision-making in Canberra is hindering the development of military leaders who can make independent decisions.

Threat Assessment and Public Communication

• Increased Threat Level: The level of threat is greater than what is appreciated.
• Lack of Public Engagement: The government has not engaged in a serious, sustained, and honest conversation with the Australian people about the threats posed by North Korea, China, and Russia.
• Need for Social License: The government needs to gain social license for increased defense spending by explaining the threats and how the money will be used.

Notable Quotes

• "The speed at which Ukraine and Russia are learning and adapting is incomprehensible to most Western military forces and certainly to the Camber bureaucracy."
• "...democracies are probably even more vulnerable to the kinds of attacks that Ukraine conducted against Russian airfields..."
• "...at 2% of GDP [ORCUS submarines] are not affordable – if we want to have Orca submarines and an Australian defense force at 2% you get one or the other not both..."

Synthesis/Conclusion

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the transformative potential of drone warfare, AI, and 3D printing in modern combat. Ukraine's innovative use of these technologies has allowed it to punch above its weight against a larger adversary. For Australia, this necessitates a re-evaluation of its defense strategy, procurement processes, and spending priorities. A shift towards decentralized decision-making, increased investment in unmanned systems, and a greater emphasis on adaptability are crucial. Furthermore, the Australian government needs to engage in a transparent and honest conversation with the public about the evolving threat landscape and the rationale behind increased defense spending. The current focus on a small number of expensive systems, like the ORCUS submarines, may not be sustainable in the face of rapidly advancing and relatively inexpensive technologies that can pose significant threats to Australia's security.