Attacks continue in Ukraine despite Russia's 'Easter truce' pledge, Zelensky says | BBC News

Ukraine Easter Ceasefire: Analysis and Implications

Key Concepts:

• Easter Ceasefire: A 30-hour unilateral ceasefire declared by Russia.
• Humanitarian Considerations: The stated motivation behind the ceasefire, viewed skeptically by Ukraine.
• Diplomatic Activity: Ongoing high-level talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine.
• Trump's Impatience: The US President's growing frustration with the lack of progress in peace negotiations.
• Comprehensive Ceasefire: A longer-term ceasefire (30 days) previously proposed by the US, which Ukraine agreed to but Russia did not.
• Little Deals: Potential for incremental agreements on specific issues as a path towards broader peace.

Ceasefire Announcement and Initial Reactions

• Putin's Announcement: Vladimir Putin announced a 30-hour unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine, citing "humanitarian considerations" for Easter. The ceasefire was scheduled to begin at 6:00 PM and end at midnight on Sunday.
• Zelensky's Response: President Zelensky stated that Russian assaults were ongoing in several places, casting doubt on the sincerity of the ceasefire. He indicated Ukraine would honor the ceasefire if Russia did.
• British Foreign Office Statement: Echoed the sentiment that the ceasefire should extend beyond Easter, urging Putin to demonstrate genuine commitment to peace by ending the invasion.
• Skepticism: There was widespread skepticism regarding Russia's motives, with many viewing the ceasefire as a PR stunt.

On-the-Ground Situation

• Reported Violations: Despite the ceasefire announcement, Ukrainian forces reported shelling and assaults along the front line on Easter morning.
• Zelensky's Claims: Zelensky claimed 387 shellings and 19 assaults by the Russian army, along with 290 drone uses, within the first 6 hours of the ceasefire. The BBC was unable to independently verify these reports.
• Focus on Front Lines: The reported attacks were mainly concentrated on the front lines, with no reported strikes in Kiev itself.

Diplomatic Context and US Involvement

• Trump's Impatience: The ceasefire announcement came after President Trump signaled growing impatience with the lack of progress in peace negotiations, suggesting he might withdraw from brokering a deal.
• US Push for Comprehensive Ceasefire: The US had previously pushed for a 30-day comprehensive ceasefire, which Ukraine had agreed to.
• High-Level Talks: Recent diplomatic activity included meetings between US Special Envoy Steve Witkov and President Putin, as well as talks involving President Putin's envoy Kadil Demitri in Washington.
• White House Hints: The White House had been hinting at the possibility of withdrawing from peace talks if progress was not made.

Analysis and Perspectives

• Kremlin's Strategy: The Kremlin may be using the ceasefire to convince the White House that it is serious about peace and that Ukraine is not.
• Charles Kupchan's View: Charles Kupchan from the Council on Foreign Relations suggested the ceasefire was an attempt by Putin to appear on the side of peace after Trump's team threatened to walk away from peace talks. He cautioned against undermining Ukraine's negotiating position.
• Lack of Trust: A key issue is the lack of trust in Moscow's words, given past experiences with failed ceasefires.
• Potential for Incremental Agreements: The possibility of achieving progress through smaller, specific agreements (e.g., Black Sea grain agreement, agreement not to strike energy targets) was raised.

Sticking Points and Future Prospects

• Unchanged Russian Demands: Russia's demands for ending the war, including recognition of occupied territories and Crimea as Russian, and Ukraine's non-NATO membership, remain unchanged.
• Uncertainty: The details of ongoing high-level talks remain largely unknown, making it difficult to assess the prospects for a lasting peace.
• Wait-and-See Approach: The situation requires a wait-and-see approach to determine whether the ceasefire can lead to further progress.

Conclusion

The Easter ceasefire, while welcomed by some as a potential step towards peace, is viewed with skepticism by many due to Russia's past actions and ongoing reports of violations. The diplomatic context, including US involvement and Trump's impatience, adds complexity to the situation. The success of the ceasefire and its potential to lead to a broader peace agreement remain uncertain, hinging on Russia's willingness to compromise and the ability of all parties to build trust and engage in meaningful negotiations.