'Atmosphere closer to wartime': Moscow’s muted Victory Day reflects growing security fears

Key Concepts

• Victory Day Parade: The annual Russian military commemoration, which was significantly scaled down in this instance.
• Wartime Protection Atmosphere: The shift in public mood from celebratory to defensive and restrictive.
• Strategic Paranoia: The heightened security measures and isolation of President Putin due to fears of assassination or deep-strike attacks.
• Ceasefire Diplomacy: The temporary, three-day truce brokered by the US, which faces skepticism regarding its longevity.
• Deep-Strike Capability: Ukraine’s ability to utilize long-range drones to target Russian territory, influencing Russian military and security posture.

---

1. The State of the Victory Day Parade and Public Sentiment

The Victory Day parade in Moscow was notably subdued, characterized by a lack of major mechanized columns and a reduction in heavy military hardware. Gregoire Ruse notes that the atmosphere was less of a "triumphal celebration" and more akin to "wartime protection."

• Contributing Factors: The mood was dampened by tighter security protocols and widespread internet shutdowns in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
• Economic Impact: Ordinary Russians are increasingly preoccupied with the state of the economy, specifically rising bankruptcy rates and declining purchasing power, rather than the symbolic military display.

2. Political Stability and Public Support

Despite reports of President Putin’s increasing isolation and time spent in bunkers, Ruse argues that the Russian president maintains significant public support.

• Polling Data: While independent and Russian polls indicate a decline in approval ratings by up to 10 points, Putin’s support remains in the 55–60% range.
• War Sentiment: There remains "overwhelming support" among the Russian population for the war in Ukraine.
• Internal Dissent: While some government decisions—particularly internet censorship—are being questioned, there is no evidence of widespread civil unrest or a looming threat of a coup, which Ruse characterizes as "overstated."

3. Ceasefire and Diplomatic Negotiations

The discussion addressed the three-day ceasefire brokered by the US.

• Negotiation Stagnation: Prospects for face-to-face talks between President Zelensky and President Putin remain dim. While Zelensky has expressed willingness to meet (potentially in Turkey), Putin has consistently declined or placed impossible conditions on such meetings.
• Ceasefire Viability: Ruse expressed skepticism regarding the extension of the current ceasefire, noting that previous truces, such as the Easter ceasefire, were breached. He suggests that the US is currently prioritizing other geopolitical concerns in the East and South over long-term mediation in this specific conflict.

4. Security Concerns and "Deep Strikes"

A primary driver for the scaled-down parade and Putin’s isolation is the fear of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes.

• The "Bunker" Mentality: Ruse confirms that the Russian leadership is "very worried" about Ukraine’s ability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory. This fear has fueled Putin’s paranoia, leading him to spend significant time in secure bunkers.
• Media Manipulation: Ruse highlights that many of the videos showing Putin visiting various positions are pre-recorded, a tactic used to obscure his actual location and ensure his safety.

---

Synthesis and Conclusion

The summary of the situation in Russia, as presented by Gregoire Ruse, is one of a nation under significant internal strain. While the Russian government maintains a firm grip on public opinion and the war effort, the "Victory Day" festivities revealed a shift toward defensive posturing and heightened security. The combination of economic hardship, internet restrictions, and the genuine fear of Ukrainian long-range capabilities has forced the Russian leadership into a state of strategic isolation. Ultimately, the lack of diplomatic progress and the fragility of the current ceasefire suggest a continuation of the status quo, with the Russian leadership prioritizing personal and regime security over de-escalation.