As the federal Coalition implodes, One Nation's vote is surging | 7.30

Key Concepts

• One Nation: A right-wing populist Australian political party experiencing a surge in support.
• Coalition Split: The recent fracturing of the Liberal-National coalition in Australia.
• Resolve & News Polls: Polling firms indicating One Nation’s rising primary vote.
• Pauline Hanson: Leader of One Nation, maintaining consistent policy positions for decades.
• Net Zero Agenda: A key point of contention for conservative voters, fueling dissatisfaction with the Coalition.
• Liberal Party Leadership: Uncertainty surrounding the leadership of Susan Lee and potential challenges from Angus Taylor and Andrew Hasty.
• Cost of Living & Immigration: Key concerns driving voter support for One Nation.
• Shadow Cabinet: The team of spokespeople appointed by the leader of the opposition to shadow the ministers of the government.
• Caretaker Mode: The period before an election where a government is limited in its actions.

The Rise of One Nation and the Fracturing of Australian Politics

The Australian political landscape is undergoing significant shifts, marked by a surge in support for One Nation and a deepening crisis within the Liberal-National coalition. This is particularly evident in regional areas like Tamworth, New South Wales, where the country’s political currents are visibly impacting voter sentiment.

One Nation’s Growing Appeal

One Nation’s primary vote has steadily increased since Pauline Hanson’s return to Parliament in 2016, reaching a high of 18% according to Resolve polling, and even 22% in a recent News poll – surpassing the Coalition for the first time. Initially drawing support from the Coalition’s older base, One Nation is now attracting voters from both major parties. This “hoovering up” of votes is attributed to a perceived failure of the major parties to address core concerns.

Pauline Hanson’s core platform, articulated since her 1996 maiden speech, remains consistent: protection of local industry, opposition to “political correctness,” and reduced immigration. Her 1996 statement, “I and most Australians want our immigration policy radically reviewed and that of multiculturalism abolished,” remains central to the party’s message. She has also expressed concerns about the compatibility of certain immigrant groups with Australian society, stating, “I believe we are in danger of being swamped by Asians… It is about Islam.”

Disillusionment with the Coalition

A key driver of One Nation’s success is growing dissatisfaction with the Coalition, particularly among conservative voters. Steve Brown, a conservative voter from Victoria, expressed frustration with the Coalition’s “net zero thing,” feeling it’s an agenda pursued “at all cost for no reason.” He believes the Liberal Party has moved “left of the middle,” creating a void filled by One Nation. Chris, a former Liberal voter from Melbourne, is “thinking about” voting for One Nation due to “too much division” within the Liberal party.

This sentiment is echoed by New England farmer Steve Cox, former chairman of the Tamworth National Party branch, who, along with much of his branch, defected to One Nation. He stated, “I didn’t leave the Nationals. The Nationals left me,” criticizing the climate policy of Nationals leader David Littleproud and claiming he “isn’t listening to his membership.” Cox believes One Nation “are listening to people and they have mainstream Australia’s best interests at heart.”

The Coalition Implodes & Barnaby Joyce’s Defection

The Nationals’ reputation suffered a further blow with their recent split from the Coalition, described by Barnaby Joyce as “more marriages than a weekend at the Gold Coast.” Joyce’s December defection to One Nation was seen as a harbinger of this broader trend. He explained his decision by stating he was “part of a wave” of branches leaving the Nationals to form One Nation branches.

Joyce attributes the shift to a “malaise, a sense of frustration,” an “overemphasis on climate change as opposed to costs of living,” and a reluctance to address immigration, which he links to rising housing prices. He emphasized the importance of building infrastructure – “build the houses, build the schools, build the roads, build the dams” – before discussing immigration levels. He also voiced strong support for gun rights, stating, “No one should impinge on our rights to have a firearm.”

Liberal Party Leadership Crisis

The Coalition split has triggered a leadership crisis within the Liberal Party. While Susan Lee’s position is currently “suspended,” there is growing pressure for a change. Political editor Jacob Grieber notes that even moderates acknowledge her days are numbered. Angus Taylor and Andrew Hasty, both from the right of the party, are potential challengers, but a unified front from the right is crucial for a successful challenge. Grieber points out that the debate is largely focused on personalities rather than a fundamental re-evaluation of the party’s direction, questioning what the Liberal Party “stands for” in 2026 and 2028.

One Nation’s Future & Political Implications

Despite its growing support, One Nation faces challenges in translating its primary vote into seats in the House of Representatives. The party requires preferences from other parties to surpass the 50% threshold, and there is currently no indication that the major parties will preference them. However, One Nation is likely to win more Senate spots in 2028.

Grieber describes One Nation as being in a “delicious position of being able to articulate all the problems without having to solve any of them.” The party’s success highlights a disconnect between the major parties and the concerns of many voters, particularly regarding cost of living, immigration, and crumbling public services.

Government Response & Upcoming Challenges

While the conservative side is in turmoil, the Labor government faces its own challenges. Tomorrow’s inflation data is a key concern, potentially triggering a rate hike. Furthermore, the government is attempting to negotiate a health agreement with the states, involving substantial funding for hospitals, aged care, and the NDIS. Failure to reach an agreement could negatively impact the federal budget. South Australia entering caretaker mode further limits the timeframe for negotiations.

Conclusion

The rise of One Nation and the fracturing of the Coalition represent a significant realignment of Australian politics. Driven by voter frustration with mainstream parties and a desire for stronger action on issues like immigration and cost of living, One Nation is capitalizing on a growing sense of disillusionment. While its ability to win seats in the House of Representatives remains uncertain, its growing influence in the Senate and its impact on the political discourse are undeniable. The Liberal Party faces an existential crisis, grappling with leadership instability and a lack of clear direction. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term consequences of these shifts and the future of Australian politics.