As Russia-Ukraine war enters year five, how close is a peace deal?

Key Concepts

• Donbas: A historical, cultural, and economic region in eastern Ukraine, comprised of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Currently a major focal point of the conflict.
• Demilitarized Zone: An area where military installations, activities, and personnel are prohibited, intended to reduce tensions.
• Security Guarantees: Assurances provided by international actors to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Free Economic Zone: A designated area within a country that has different economic regulations than other regions, typically to attract investment.
• Referendum: A vote in which the entire electorate is asked to accept or reject a particular proposal, often regarding territorial changes.

Current Status of Negotiations & Core Disagreement

Negotiations for a potential end to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia are ongoing, with a possible new round anticipated this week, marking the fifth year of Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. The primary obstacle to a deal centers on the future of the Donetsk region within Donbas. Russia currently controls almost all of Luhansk and is demanding Ukraine cede control of the remaining 20% of Donetsk, which Ukraine currently holds. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy firmly rejects this demand. This disagreement stems from Russia’s claim that Donetsk is historically Russian land, a claim not recognized internationally; international recognition remains with Ukraine.

Negotiating Positions & Proposed Frameworks

According to Samir Puri, an expert at King’s College London, “The Russians want the Ukrainians to voluntarily seize those territories in Donetsk in particular.” He further explains that Ukraine has “fought tooth and nail for 11 years now to defend those territories” and fears relinquishing them could lead to further Russian incursions westward.

A draft peace plan proposes security guarantees and economic support for Ukraine, alongside a monitored non-aggression framework with Russia. Critically, the plan preserves Ukraine’s current troop levels and its aspirations for EU membership. However, key issues remain unresolved, including the fate of Donetsk, the operation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and the oversight of any potential demilitarized zones.

Proposed Demilitarization & Administration of Donbas

The United States has reportedly proposed transforming Donbas into a demilitarized free economic zone, with neither Russian nor Ukrainian troops stationed there. Moscow has countered with a suggestion to deploy its National Guard and police forces in Donbas under a peace agreement, a proposal Ukraine is unlikely to accept. Zelenskyy stated in December that the US has not yet determined who would administer the region, and the White House has not publicly commented on the specifics.

Constitutional & Political Hurdles

Zelenskyy asserts he lacks the constitutional authority to cede Ukrainian land, stating that any territorial changes require a national referendum. Former US President Donald Trump has disputed the necessity of a referendum, suggesting he anticipates some land swapping as part of a deal. He also proposed chairing a peace council to enforce a legally binding agreement that would trigger an immediate ceasefire upon signing.

Battlefield Dynamics & Recent Developments

In the first year of the war, Ukraine successfully pushed back Russian forces from the outskirts of Kyiv and reclaimed significant occupied territory. However, a subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, leading to a slow but steady Russian advance along the 750-mile front line. Recently, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief claimed his forces have regained control of over 150 square miles of territory along the southern front line, though this claim remains unconfirmed by Reuters and has not been addressed by Moscow.

Notable Quote

“The Russians want the Ukrainians to voluntarily seize those territories in Donetsk in particular. The Ukrainians quite understandably have fought… to defend those territories, but also fear that voluntarily giving them up would open the path potentially to a Russian invasion of further Ukrainian territories further west.” – Samir Puri, King’s College London.