Arya Jemo: 'Fifteen years of Syrian civil war to end up with an Al‑Qaeda leader in power'

Syrian Ceasefire & Kurdish Concerns: A Detailed Analysis

Key Concepts:

• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Kurdish-led militia that previously controlled significant territory in Syria, primarily fighting against ISIS.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): A jihadist group formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda, currently dominant in Idlib province and increasingly influential in Syrian politics. Led previously by Ahmed al-Shar, now rebranded.
• Afrin: A Kurdish region in Syria occupied by Turkish-backed forces since 2018, serving as a point of reference for the analyst’s personal experience.
• Alawites & Druze: Religious minorities in Syria facing persecution and threats under the current regime.
• Save Kurds Act: A bipartisan US initiative aimed at pressuring the Syrian government to protect Kurdish rights.
• Centralization of Power: The Syrian government’s historical tendency to concentrate authority, hindering regional autonomy.

I. Current Situation & Ceasefire Breakdown

The Syrian army and Kurdish forces are currently observing a ceasefire brokered by the US, set to expire within a week. This ceasefire followed a Syrian army offensive that recaptured territory previously held by the SDF. The offensive was triggered by stalled negotiations between the Syrian government and the Kurds regarding the integration of Kurdish forces into the national army and a broader political agreement. The situation is characterized by a lack of trust and a perceived threat to minority groups.

II. Analyst’s Perspective & Historical Context

Arya GMO, a Kurdish affairs analyst and member of Syria’s Kurdish community, expresses deep skepticism about the Syrian government’s intentions. He draws on personal experience from Afrin, which has been under occupation since 2018, to illustrate the Syrian government’s operating methods. He highlights a fear of being forced to live under the rule of HTS, which he characterizes as a branch of al-Qaeda, without adequate protections for ethnic and religious minorities. He states, “We’re being forced to live under this regime without any concession agreement that properly protect the different component of the Syrian society.”

III. Distrust of Bashar al-Assad & Ahmed al-Shar

The analyst expresses profound distrust of Bashar al-Assad and, despite Ahmed al-Shar’s public rebranding, remains unconvinced by his pledges to work with minorities. He recounts the historical treatment of Kurds and Yazidis, including land confiscation, destruction of religious sites, and violence. He dismisses al-Shar’s transformation as a superficial attempt to whitewash a violent past, stating, “You know this image and this fairy tale of the jihadist that was literally the leader of people who were beheading people… how can from one day to another he just wear a tie and a suit and that's it he just became a humanist?”

IV. Kurdish Demands & Constitutional Concerns

The Kurdish community seeks constitutional guarantees for inclusivity and respect for minority rights. They criticize the current Syrian government’s approach as a continuation of Bashar al-Assad’s centralized power structure, now infused with “a flavor of Sunni jihadism” from HTS. Specifically, they requested inclusiveness in the constitution when the Syrian government took power, but received a system mirroring Assad’s centralization of power. While the recent recognition of Kurdish as a national language and restoration of citizenship are acknowledged as positive gestures, they are deemed insufficient without concrete guarantees.

V. Current Conditions & Discrepancies in Government Actions

The analyst points to the ongoing siege of Kobani, a city that played a crucial role in resisting ISIS in 2015, as evidence of the Syrian government’s hypocrisy. Despite claims of respecting minorities, Kobani is experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis with no electricity, running water, and a complete embargo. This disparity between rhetoric and reality fuels distrust. He emphasizes the need for “actions and speeches,” demanding “concrete guarantees” and “international presence on the ground.”

VI. International Support & Pressure Tactics

While acknowledging some support from the US and France in terms of mediation and negotiation, the analyst stresses the need for increased international pressure on the Syrian government. He highlights the “Save Kurds Act” in the US and a recent motion in the Dutch parliament to condition funding on the protection of minorities as positive steps. He argues that the Syrian government only responds to force and pressure, stating, “They don't understand only speeches and condemnation. Oh, we need to put international pressure which is done by the save Kurds act.” He specifically calls for labeling HTS as a terrorist jihadist group to prevent its whitewashing.

VII. US Motivations & Geopolitical Considerations

The analyst critiques the US rationale for supporting the Syrian government, arguing that it is driven by self-interest rather than a genuine desire for stability. He suggests that the US prioritizes countering Russian and Iranian influence, securing economic benefits (such as access to Syrian oil), and securing reconstruction contracts. He believes this approach compromises Western values.

VIII. Agreements & Implementation Concerns

Previous agreements between the SDF and the Syrian government are viewed with skepticism, as they are considered mere “papers” lacking credible implementation mechanisms. The analyst emphasizes that enforcement requires force, not just written commitments.

IX. Long-Term Prospects & Minority Coordination

The analyst expresses pessimism about the possibility of a unified Syria, citing deep-seated hatred and propaganda. He highlights the growing coordination among Syria’s minority groups – Kurds, Alawites, Christians, and Druze – who share a common distrust of the current regime. He states, “Between the Jews, the Alawite, the Christian, and the Kurds were speaking… We do not trust these groups to rule Syria.”

X. Reflections on Assad’s Fall & Al-Shar’s Rise

The analyst reflects on the mixed emotions surrounding Bashar al-Assad’s fall in 2024, acknowledging Assad’s brutality while expressing dismay at the subsequent rise of Ahmed al-Shar and HTS. He describes the shock of witnessing a former jihadist leader being rebranded and gaining power, questioning how 15 years of civil war could culminate in al-Qaeda leadership in Syria.

Conclusion:

The situation in Syria remains precarious, with the ceasefire’s expiration looming and a deep-seated lack of trust between the Kurdish community and the Syrian government. The analyst’s testimony paints a grim picture of potential persecution of minorities under HTS rule and underscores the urgent need for increased international pressure, concrete guarantees, and a genuine commitment to inclusivity and respect for human rights. The core takeaway is that the current trajectory threatens not only the Kurdish community but also the broader values of the international community.