Are Pop Toys Just Hype Or Smart Investment? | Talking Point | Full Episode

Key Concepts

• Art Toys/Designer Toys: Collectible figures created by artists, often with unique designs and limited production runs.
• Blind Boxes: Mystery toy boxes where the specific design is unknown until opened.
• Secret Figures: Rare, limited-edition designs within a blind box series, highly sought after by collectors.
• Flipping: The practice of buying items with the intention of reselling them quickly for a profit.
• Resale Value: The price an item can fetch on the secondary market.
• Intellectual Property (IP): The original creative work and characters that art toys are based on.
• Raffle: A lottery system used to distribute limited-edition items, where participants have a chance to win the right to purchase.

The Pop Toy Show Phenomenon

The video explores the immense popularity and investment potential of art toys, exemplified by the Pop Toy Show. Despite doors opening at 11:00 a.m., queues formed as early as 9:00 a.m., with some collectors arriving at 4:00 a.m. This intense demand is driven by collectors seeking joy, exclusivity, and potential financial gains.

• Collector Motivations:
  • Joy and Appreciation: Many collectors, like the "Molly fan" mentioned, are drawn to the art and design of the toys.
  • Investment and Value Appreciation: Collectors hope that limited edition toys will increase in value over time due to their scarcity and unique designs. Last year, some toys sold for four to five times their original price. A secret figure bought for $15 could be resold for $150.

Evolution of Art Toys

Art toys have transitioned from a niche hobby to a mainstream craze.

• Pre-2016: Art toys were primarily for dedicated collector groups.
• PopMart's Impact: The introduction of blind boxes by PopMart significantly broadened the appeal of art toys.
• 2024 Turning Point: Blackpink's Lisa was seen with a Labubu toy, catapulting these items into a worldwide sensation.

What are Art Toys?

Art toys, also known as designer toys, are collectible figures crafted by artists. Their appeal extends beyond their aesthetic, as some rare pieces can command significant prices, even reaching six figures.

• Types of Art Toys:
  • Art Sculptures: Toys designed, manufactured, and painted entirely by the artist. These are often more expensive, with the Singapore Art Toy Community selling pieces for $200-$300.
  • Commercial Blind Boxes: Mass-produced toys designed by well-known artists. The "blind box" refers to the packaging format, but they are still categorized under the umbrella of art toys.

Origins of Art Toys

The concept of soft vinyl toys (sofubi) originated in Japan in the 1950s. Post-World War II, a lack of metal led to the use of soft vinyl, which proved popular with the public and became a common toy format in Japan.

Popular Art Toys

• Labubu: Gained significant fame in recent years.
• Kaws: Another highly popular art toy brand.
• Fabric: Mentioned as a popular art toy.

Art Toys as Investments: A Closer Look

The potential for art toys to be a good investment is a key discussion point.

• "Fast Cash" Potential: Limited edition figures can offer quick profits, with some reselling for two to three times the original price shortly after purchase.
• Convention Exclusives: Limited runs of 10-30 pieces at conventions are often flipped instantly for two to three times their retail price.
• Case Study: Koawa Toy at Pop Toy Show:
  • Retail Price: $325
  • Limited Edition: Only 35 released.
  • Sell-out Time: Sold out within 2 hours.
  • Resale Market: Within 24 hours, listings appeared on Carousel for $700-$800, more than double the retail price. Other limited edition toys were also seen selling for hundreds and thousands of dollars.

The Resale Market and Flipping

Sean, a toy collector specializing in selling limited edition toys, provides insights into the resale market.

• Most Valuable Toy at Pop Toy Show: A specific toy with only 19 pieces released at the show.
  • Retail Price: Around $800 Singapore Dollar.
  • Resale Price: Easily sold for $1,600, with Sean selling it for $2,500.
• Buyer Demographics:
  1. Collectors: Individuals who genuinely appreciate and collect the toys.
  2. Resellers/Investors: Those who buy to sell quickly or hold for longer-term profit.
  3. Trend Followers: People who buy because the toys are currently popular.
• Ease of Reselling:
  • For Experts: Resellers who understand the market and demand can profit.
  • For Normal People: It's risky due to fluctuating market rates. Over-saturation of sellers can cause prices to drop suddenly.
• Reseller Margins: For resellers like Sean, margins are around 20-30%.
• Acquisition Challenges: Many limited edition toys are only available through raffles, making them extremely difficult to obtain. For the Singapore Hot Pop Toy Show, over 3,000 people participated in the raffle for a limited number of items.

The Blind Box Gamble

Blind boxes offer another avenue for acquiring art toys, with the allure of finding a rare "secret" figure.

• Blind Box Pricing: Regular blind boxes sell for $250 (this seems to be a typo in the transcript, likely meant to be a price point for a rare item, not the regular price which is later stated as $35). The usual price is $35 each.
• The Secret Figure Hunt: The chance of obtaining a secret figure is significantly lower than regular designs.
• The Probability Problem:
  • Regular Designs: 1 in 12 chance (assuming 12 regular designs).
  • Secret Design: 1 in 144 odds.
  • Average Boxes Needed: On average, 144 boxes are needed to obtain one secret design.
• Dice Analogy:
  • Rolling a 6 on one die: 1 in 6 chance.
  • Rolling double 6s on two dice: 1 in 36 chance.
  • Rolling two 6s and two even numbers on four dice: 1 in 144 chance, mirroring the odds of getting a secret art toy.
• Experimental Results: The video's experiment involving rolling dice to simulate the odds of getting a secret toy was unsuccessful after over 100 rolls, highlighting the difficulty and chance involved.
• Expected Cost for a Secret: The average cost to obtain a secret design is estimated at $2,289.60 (based on $15.90 per box and 144 boxes). This doesn't guarantee a purchase, as luck can lead to fewer or more boxes being needed.
• Conclusion on Blind Boxes: Acquiring a rare toy through blind boxes is more of a gamble than a guaranteed investment due to the high cost, time, and effort involved.

Evaluating and Maintaining Art Toys

TK, the owner of a secondhand toy shop, offers insights into the resale value and care of art toys.

• Condition is Key:
  • Original Packaging: Keeping the box and plastic bag can increase value, but selling without them results in a "loose item" price, potentially half or less of the original value.
  • Pristine Condition: Figures should be kept in good condition, as prolonged exposure to humidity can cause stickiness or paint to chip.
• Determining Worth:
  • Online Checks: See if others are selling the item.
  • Scarcity: If no one is selling, the price is up to the seller's discretion.
  • Demand: How many people are looking for the toy.
• Long-Term Value: The future value of art toys is unpredictable. Some may gain value over decades as collectors age and seek nostalgic items, similar to vintage toys. For example, a toy bought for $17-$18 in the 80s might now sell for $600.
• Singapore's Climate: The humid weather in Singapore is not ideal for art toys, which are typically made in factories. They may only last 10-20 years before becoming sticky or experiencing paint degradation. A toy lasting 30 years in Singapore is considered very good.

Market Trends and the Future of Art Toys

Jonathan Toe, a gallery owner and artist representative, discusses the fluctuating art toy market.

• Market Dip: Prices have seen a decline after a peak.
  • Peak Period (Pandemic): Increased disposable income and limited travel led to high demand and investment in art toys. Some figures sold for 3-4 times their retail price.
  • Post-Pandemic: Prices have steadily decreased, with some falling below retail.
• Blind Box Cycle: Blind boxes, with their element of surprise, are expected to drive continued interest, potentially leading to another cycle of popularity.
• Sustaining the Trend:
  • Design Fatigue: Continuous release of the same designs can lead to a decline in interest.
  • Resurgence: Brands like Pokemon and Doraemon have made comebacks.
  • Factors for Longevity:
    • Relevance Across Generations: Toys that remain relevant to collectors across different age groups, like Pokemon cards passed down from parents to children.
    • IP and Storytelling: Brands that build a universe around characters and storylines, like Disney and Star Wars, tend to have more lasting appeal than single-character "one-hit wonders."
• Crossovers and Reinvention: Collaborations, such as the Lisa x Labubu example (art toy and music crossover), and continuous reinvention in different scenarios can help the trend expand and grow.

Conclusion: Collector First, Investor Second

The overarching advice for art toy enthusiasts is to prioritize collecting over investing.

• Appreciation: The primary motivation should be the appreciation of the art itself. If the toy increases in value, it's a bonus.
• Understanding the Art: Learning about the artists and the stories behind the toys can deepen appreciation and understanding of what is being collected.
• Uncertainty of Profit: Quick profits are rare, and the long-term value of art toys remains uncertain.
• Personal Collection: The narrator, having failed to sell her "Cryb Babies" at a profit, ends up starting her own collection, emphasizing the personal connection and potential for future appreciation through understanding the art.