Are NATO members really serious about spending 5 percent of GDP on defense? | DW News

NATO Summit in The Hague: Defense Spending and Shifting Priorities

Key Concepts:

• NATO defense spending pledge (5% of GDP)
• Burden-sharing among NATO members
• Russian aggression and the war in Ukraine
• Defense industry revitalization
• Flexibility in defense expenditure calculation
• Geopolitical influence and pleasing the US

5% Defense Spending Pledge: A New Era for NATO?

• Main Point: NATO members are poised to approve a significant increase in defense spending, aiming for 5% of their GDP. This move is intended to revitalize the alliance and address concerns about burden-sharing, particularly in light of Russian aggression.
• Trump's Role: While Donald Trump has been a vocal critic of NATO members not meeting their spending commitments, the increased pledge is driven more by the perceived threat from Russia than solely by Trump's pressure.
• Flexibility: The 5% target incorporates flexibility, allowing infrastructure improvements (roads, rail, bridges) that support military traffic to be counted as defense expenditure. This provides member states with opportunities to meet the target creatively.
• Challenges: Reaching the 5% goal will require "heavy lifting" for many NATO allies. The actual military capabilities require 3.5% of GDP. Some members are hesitant and may struggle to meet the target within the next 10 years. Spain has already negotiated an exemption, and other members are seeking carveouts.
• Quote: Kaak Kallas, EU Foreign Policy Chief: "This summit is about one thing and one thing only, this is uh 5% and more defense investments and there uh you know allies seem to be united."

The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War

• Shift in Focus: While the Russia-Ukraine war has been a central issue in previous NATO summits, it appears to be less prominent at this one.
• Challenges in Response: NATO has faced challenges in reaching a consensus on the type and quantity of support to provide to Ukraine, particularly regarding long-range missile systems.
• Successes: NATO has been successful in providing Ukraine with standard equipment like ammunition.
• Defense Industry Revitalization: The war has spurred the revitalization of NATO defense industries, with companies retooling and modernizing their production capabilities.
• Ukraine as a Model: Ukraine is demonstrating innovative approaches to modern warfare, particularly in the use of drone systems, which can serve as a model for NATO allies.

Germany's Role and the Future of NATO

• Germany's Ambition: Germany aims to build the strongest conventional army in Europe (Bundeswehr).
• Challenges for Germany: Germany faces challenges in terms of manpower shortages and recruitment to sustain a strong army.
• German Strengths: Germany has an established military manufacturing capability, with companies like Rheinmetall playing a significant role.
• Opportunities for Tech Sector: There are opportunities for German tech companies and SMEs to contribute to the defense sector through technology development.
• Irony: There is a certain irony that Donald Trump, a known NATO skeptic, may be the one who has secured the future of the alliance by pushing for increased defense spending.
• Quote: Rose Gottemoeller: "He did start this change this sea change uh he started it going but I want to stress once again that it is a threat from a newly aggressive Russia that has really driven the pace now."

Geopolitical Maneuvering and Pleasing the US

• Efforts to Please Trump: The NATO Secretary General and the Netherlands (as the host country) are making efforts to please Donald Trump, including hosting him in the royal palace and attributing the 5% pledge to his personal influence.
• Pre-Planned Strategy: The strategy of attributing the 5% pledge to Trump was planned months in advance by NATO allies to ensure his continued commitment to the alliance.
• Awkward Situation: The release of messages from the NATO Secretary General thanking Trump for his actions against Iran created an awkward situation.
• Concerns about Implementation: There are concerns that some countries may be agreeing to the 5% pledge on paper only, with doubts about their ability to actually meet the target by 2035.

Shifting Priorities and Ukraine's Diminished Role

• Ukraine's Reduced Prominence: Ukraine's role at the summit has been diminished compared to previous summits, with less emphasis on its potential NATO membership.
• Trump's Influence: Donald Trump reportedly did not want Ukraine to be a major focus of the summit.
• Zelenskyy-Trump Meeting: A short meeting between President Zelenskyy and President Trump is planned, but organizers are wary of a potential "Oval Office-like spectacle."
• European Support for Ukraine: European leaders are keen to demonstrate their continued support for Ukraine, regardless of the US position.

EU's Role in Boosting Defense Capabilities

• Financial Resources: The EU has made financial resources available and changed regulations to allow member states to invest more in defense.
• Procurement Simplification: The EU is working to simplify procurement rules to reduce costs and shorten procurement times.
• Cooperation with Ukraine: The EU is cooperating with the Ukrainian defense industry to learn from its innovative approaches.

Perspectives from Kyiv

• "Too Little, Too Late": From Kyiv, the increased defense spending is seen as "too little, too late, and too slow."
• Dichotomy Among European Leaders: There is a dichotomy between northern/eastern European leaders (more attuned to the situation in Ukraine) and leaders in countries like Spain (struggling to justify increased defense spending to their publics).
• Germany's Preparedness: The head of the German army believes Russia will be ready for a large-scale European war by 2029, highlighting the need for Germany to prepare.
• Ukraine's Defense Spending: Ukraine is spending over a quarter of its GDP on defense, significantly more than even the most committed European countries.
• Need for Increased Production: The focus should be on increasing the production capacity of European defense industries to meet Ukraine's needs, particularly for air defense systems.

Conclusion

The NATO summit in The Hague marks a significant shift towards increased defense spending and a renewed focus on burden-sharing among member states. While the 5% GDP target is ambitious and faces implementation challenges, it reflects a growing recognition of the need to address the threat posed by Russia. The summit also highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics at play, with efforts to appease the US and varying levels of commitment to supporting Ukraine. The revitalization of European defense industries and the potential for technological innovation offer opportunities to strengthen NATO's capabilities in the face of evolving security challenges.