Are collectibles the next big investment boom?

Opening Bid Unfiltered Podcast with Josh Luber: A Deep Dive into Collectibles & Gamified Commerce

Key Concepts:

• Blind Boxification: The trend of products utilizing randomized packaging to create excitement and gamification, driven by the success of brands like PopMart’s Labubu.
• Supply & Demand: The fundamental economic principle driving value in the collectibles market.
• Scarcity: The limited availability of an item, a key factor in determining its collectible value.
• Gamified Commerce: Incorporating game-like elements (randomness, rarity, collecting) into the purchasing experience.
• Secondary Market: The resale market for collectibles, often driving prices higher than initial retail value.
• Faux Financial Assets: Collectibles treated as investment vehicles, similar to traditional financial assets.
• Ghostrite: A new collectible toy brand founded by Josh Luber, utilizing the mechanics of trading cards in a different form factor.

I. The Collectibles Landscape & Generational Shifts

Brian Sazi, host of Opening Bid Unfiltered, initiated the conversation by showcasing a Starbucks barista collectible, highlighting the current broad scope of collectibility. He recounted a recent experience with Lexus O’Hanian, who confirmed the lack of value in his childhood Batman trading cards, illustrating a common disappointment for those who grew up in the 80s and 90s. This was attributed to the oversupply of collectibles during that era, lacking the intentional scarcity seen in today’s market. Josh Luber confirmed this, referencing a footnote in a white paper stating that individuals aged 47 often experience this realization. Luber’s own journey reflects this shift, having been involved in the hobby as a child, then professionally with Fanatics Collectibles, and now with Ghostrite. He noted a key change: the current market is driven by a generation with disposable income finally able to purchase the items they desired as children.

II. The 38,000-Word White Paper & the Rise of Blind Boxes

Luber recently released a comprehensive 38,000-word white paper analyzing the collectibles market. A central theme is the “year of the blind box,” referencing the success of PopMart’s Labubu figures. Sazi admitted being late to the Labubu trend, but acknowledged its impact. Luber explained that Labubu’s success stemmed from a combination of factors: a simple, gamified mechanic (randomized color variations, with the black variant being the rarest – 1/72 chance), and a cultural intersection of Rihanna, K-pop, and TikTok. He emphasized that the core principle driving value is still basic supply and demand. He contrasted Labubu’s approach with traditional trading cards, noting that PopMart prioritized volume over intentional scarcity, unlike the card market.

III. The Economics of Collectibility: Supply, Demand & Rarity

Luber stressed that the price of collectibles is fundamentally determined by supply and demand. He explained that even seemingly worthless items can gain value if demand exceeds supply. He pointed out that while some “legend” cards may not be appreciating significantly, others are being strategically reintroduced with scarcity in mind. He cited the example of a Michael Jordan card selling for $13 million (a one-of-one card), while more common Jordan cards are readily available for as little as $1. He also noted that Labubu has already gone through the full collectible cycle, similar to Beanie Babies, but at an accelerated pace due to the internet.

IV. Ghostrite: Reimagining Collectibles with a Trading Card Mentality

Luber transitioned to discussing his current venture, Ghostrite. He described it as a collectible toy brand that applies the mechanics of trading cards to a different form factor. He demonstrated the product – blind boxes containing collectible figures with varying levels of rarity (base, gold crown, chrome crown, fire variant). He highlighted the parallels to trading cards, including numbered editions and the excitement of “the pull” – opening a box with the potential to find a valuable rare variant. Ghostrite currently has licenses with the NBA, MLB, WWE, and UFC, and features collaborations with artists and celebrities (e.g., Eminem in the NBA set, Lena Waithe in the WNBA set).

V. The Future of Collectibles & Market Trends

Luber discussed the evolving collectibles market, noting that marketing within the hobby is a relatively new phenomenon, only beginning in the past year. He predicted that Fanatics Collectibles, having acquired major sports licenses, will play a dominant role in shaping the future of the trading card industry. He envisions a future where leagues and teams are directly involved in the collectibles market, similar to the integration of sports betting into arenas. He identified unopened Pokemon boxes as a relatively safe investment in the collectibles space.

Regarding specific athletes, Luber believes LeBron James’ card prices are already fully realized, as his career trajectory is well-established. He also highlighted the potential of Cooper Flag, despite his limited playing time, as a high-risk, high-reward investment. He discussed the enduring mystique of the Honus Wagner card, attributing its value to its historical significance, rarity, and the mythology surrounding it. He estimated a potential sale price of $50 million if the most pristine example ever came to market.

VI. Key Takeaways & Actionable Insights

• Collectibles are driven by emotion and cultural relevance. The intersection of culture and commerce is crucial for creating demand.
• Scarcity is paramount. Intentional limitation of supply is essential for driving value.
• Gamification enhances the experience. Blind boxes and randomized rarity create excitement and engagement.
• The collectibles market is maturing. Increased investment, marketing, and licensing are transforming the hobby into a more sophisticated industry.
• Due diligence is crucial. Understanding supply, demand, and rarity is essential for making informed investment decisions.

Technical Terms:

• One-of-One (1/1): A unique item with no duplicates, representing the highest level of rarity.
• Grading (PSA): The process of professionally assessing the condition of a collectible card, assigning a numerical grade to determine its value.
• Variants: Different versions of a collectible, often with varying levels of rarity (e.g., gold crown, chrome crown).
• Faux Financial Assets: Collectibles treated as investment vehicles.
• Blind Box: A packaged item where the contents are unknown until opened.

Notable Quotes:

• “It’s just supply and demand at its most basic.” – Josh Luber
• “We finally have money, Josh. We got to buy the things we wanted.” – Brian Sazi
• “Labubu opened this up to the other half of the world.” – Josh Luber
• “Trading cards have fundamentally built in true supply and demand, true scarcity.” – Josh Luber
• “This is econ 101 at its most basic.” – Josh Luber

Logical Connections:

The conversation flowed logically from a personal anecdote about the disappointment of childhood collectibles to a broader discussion of market dynamics and the rise of new trends. Luber’s explanation of the white paper provided a framework for understanding the current state of the collectibles market, while his introduction of Ghostrite demonstrated a practical application of those principles. The discussion of specific athletes and cards illustrated the complexities of valuing collectibles and the importance of understanding market trends.