Are AI Stocks in Danger? | Macro Mondays: December 15, 2025

Macro Mondays: December 18th, 2023 - Summary

Key Concepts:

• Bitwise: A crypto asset manager with over $10 billion in assets, focused on supporting the crypto ecosystem through developer funding.
• Regime Models: Proprietary models used by Real Vision to analyze macroeconomic conditions and predict market movements.
• AI Bubble Concerns: Resurfacing anxieties regarding valuations in AI-related companies despite Federal Reserve dovishness.
• Private Credit: A sector experiencing a rebound despite earlier concerns, with improving underlying fundamentals.
• Dollar Liquidity: A critical factor influencing market performance, with expectations of improvement in early 2024.
• Japanese Yen & BOJ Policy: Analysis of the Bank of Japan’s potential rate hike and its impact on currency markets and global capital flows.
• Santa Rally: Discussion of the likelihood of a year-end market rally given current macroeconomic conditions.
• US Economic Cycle: Assessment of the current state of the US business cycle and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

I. Introduction & Real Vision Updates (0:00 – 2:30)

The broadcast began with a sponsorship shout-out to Bitwise, a crypto asset manager managing over $10 billion, highlighting their commitment to supporting the crypto ecosystem by donating profits to developers. Miguel and Andreas then outlined upcoming Real Vision content, including:

• Wednesday: Jacob Shapiro on Geopolitics (10:30 AM Eastern).
• Thursday: Pro Ask Me Anything session with Miguel and Andreas.
• Friday: Raul and Julian’s monthly Ask Me Anything.
• Weekly Reports: Stenos Signals (Andreas), The Drill (Miguel), and Trade Ideas Portfolio Update.
• 2026 Outlook: A detailed breakdown of Real Vision’s investment thematics and positioning for 2026, to be released soon.
• Real Vision Crew Gathering: An event in Miami Beach (January 22nd-25th) with tickets still available.
• Model Portfolio: Reminder that Real Vision maintains a model portfolio tracking trade ideas for performance evaluation.

II. Market Sell-Off & AI Concerns (2:30 – 6:30)

The discussion centered on the recent market sell-off following the Federal Reserve’s dovish meeting. Despite the most dovish Fed message in years, tech stocks, particularly those related to AI, experienced a decline. Andreas attributed this to:

• Disappointing Earnings: Weak numbers from Broadcom and Oracle.
• Private Credit Concerns: Resurfacing anxieties, despite underlying improvements in the sector.
• AI Bubble Fears: Renewed skepticism regarding valuations in AI-related companies.

Andreas noted that the sell-off appeared unrelated to the Federal Reserve meeting and suggested a temporary setback, anticipating a few weeks before the situation stabilizes. He highlighted the divergence between net income and capex for companies like Oracle, driven by AI investments, as a key factor. He explained that increased capex isn’t inherently negative, but the return on investment is crucial.

III. Macro Regime Models & Inflation (6:30 – 11:30)

Andreas presented insights from Real Vision’s regime models, focusing on US inflation and growth.

• Inflation: Currently at floor level, with a consensus expectation of 3.1% for the upcoming report (covering October & November data). Andreas believes inflation will likely surprise to the downside.
• Growth: A slight hiccup in the growth parameter was observed.

He emphasized the unusual nature of the current economic cycle, where typical relationships between interest rates and growth haven’t held true due to altered debt profiles post-pandemic. This suggests the Federal Reserve has a strong case for continued rate cuts, potentially more than other central banks.

IV. US Job Numbers & Federal Reserve Policy (11:30 – 15:30)

Discussion turned to the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data. Andreas suggested the Federal Reserve itself believes the official numbers have overstated job creation by approximately 60,000 jobs per month. He anticipates job creation numbers around zero, but doesn’t view this as a major concern, given the shrinking labor force. He believes the weakness in the labor market is being overblown and provides further justification for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

V. Private Credit Rebound & Liquidity (15:30 – 18:00)

Andreas presented a chart demonstrating a rebound in private credit names, suggesting improving liquidity conditions. This is a positive signal, as these names are directly impacted by repo rates and broader liquidity trends. He expects this positive trend to continue into the first quarter of next year.

VI. Bitcoin Outlook (18:00 – 22:30)

The conversation shifted to Bitcoin. Andreas described 2023 as a bad year for Bitcoin but noted a potential crossroads. He highlighted the significance of the four-year cycle theory, which has seemingly held true, peaking in October. He believes an exogenous shock – a positive surprise to the economy – would be needed to break this cycle. He remains optimistic about the potential for a business cycle uptick in 2026.

VII. Bank of Japan & Japanese Yen (22:30 – 31:00)

The discussion focused on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) potential rate hike and its implications. Andreas argued that the current situation is different from the 2024 “carry scare,” as positioning in the Japanese yen versus the dollar is much more neutral. He also pointed to the appointment of a new Prime Minister who is less supportive of rate hikes. He anticipates a rate hike but expects the BOJ to avoid providing clear guidance on future tightening, aiming to calm markets.

He also addressed the impact on US Treasuries, noting that the incentive for Japanese investors to buy US Treasuries hasn’t significantly weakened.

VIII. Dollar Dynamics & Trade Flows (31:00 – 36:00)

Andreas discussed the factors influencing the dollar’s strength. He believes the divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) is a negative signal for the dollar, predicting the Euro/Dollar exchange rate will reach 1.20. He explained that a global growth uptick typically leads to a weaker dollar due to increased trade flows and a wider distribution of dollar liquidity. He highlighted the relationship between trade deficits and dollar strength.

IX. Santa Rally & Conclusion (36:00 – 39:00)

The final question addressed the likelihood of a Santa rally. Andreas noted that the positive seasonality typically plays out between now and New Year’s. He expressed cautious optimism, citing improving liquidity conditions and a potential for a positive market response. He also mentioned that equity markets outside the US are currently outperforming the US market, leading to a portfolio tilt towards Japan and Europe.

Notable Quotes:

• “Bitwise actually gets the crypto community. They donate a percentage of their profits…to the developers who help keep those networks running.” – Miguel (regarding Bitwise’s philosophy)
• “We’re back to talking about AI bubbles…especially in the mainstream media.” – Andreas
• “Capex is not a problem…in many ways you’ve actually been longing for capex for a long while.” – Andreas (regarding Oracle’s investments)
• “I feel fairly certain that inflation will surprise lower.” – Andreas
• “The Federal Reserve still got a pretty decent case to cut interest rates which is not necessarily the case um for some of the other big central banks.” – Andreas
• “There is light at the end of the tunnel and much more light than most people see currently.” – Andreas (regarding the outlook for 2024)

This summary provides a detailed overview of the Macro Mondays broadcast, capturing the key arguments, data points, and insights presented by Miguel and Andreas. It aims to be comprehensive and specific, preserving the technical precision of the original discussion.