APPLE EARNINGS LIVE 4PMET! 🍎 $RIVN, $SNDK, $RDDT Report | Stock Market Live

Key Concepts

• VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): A technical analysis tool used to determine the average price a stock has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price.
• Earnings Season: The period when public companies release their quarterly financial reports, often causing significant stock price volatility.
• Market Imbalances: Large buy or sell orders that occur at the market close, often leading to rapid price movements.
• GLP-1 Agonists (e.g., Mounjaro, Zepbound): Medications for diabetes and weight loss that have driven significant revenue growth for companies like Eli Lilly.
• Capex (Capital Expenditure): Funds used by a company to acquire or upgrade physical assets; high capex in the semiconductor/chip sector is currently a major market theme.
• Prop Trading: Trading financial instruments using a firm's own capital rather than client money.

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Market Overview and Trading Performance

The market experienced a robust end to April, with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 showing significant strength. The speakers highlight that April was one of the best months in recent history for the NASDAQ, with some estimates suggesting a 20% gain. The trading strategy emphasized throughout the session was patience and trusting technical levels, specifically using VWAP as a primary indicator for entries and exits.

• Key Trades:
  • Meta: A "monster" trade that provided significant gains after a patient entry near VWAP.
  • Amazon: A challenging trade where the speakers were stopped out early due to volatility, though the stock later recovered.
  • Eli Lilly: Highlighted as a top performer, driven by the success of Mounjaro and its inclusion in China’s National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), granting it a near-monopoly in that market.
  • SMCI & Nvidia: Discussed as volatile names; Nvidia was noted as a "lagger" that struggled to hold VWAP levels.

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Earnings Reports and Corporate Updates

The session focused heavily on the "after-hours" earnings landscape, with several high-profile companies reporting:

• Apple (AAPL): Reported a "best-ever" March quarter with revenue up 17% year-over-year. Despite a slight miss on iPhone sales due to supply constraints, the company announced a $100 billion share buyback and a 4% dividend increase. The market reacted with a "yawn," viewing the results as stable and positive.
• SanDisk (SNDK): Delivered a massive beat, with revenue growth near 100% year-over-year. The speakers noted that the stock initially dipped but recovered, emphasizing that "rich money" often uses profit-taking to buy dips in high-demand sectors.
• Roblox (RBLX): Reported a significant miss on guidance, leading to a sharp decline in share price. The company is attempting to pivot its business model toward "photo-realism" and age-appropriate access.
• Rivian (RIVN): Production numbers were slightly below estimates, but the company maintained its full-year guidance. The stock showed resilience, holding key support levels around $16.
• Roku (ROKU): Beat both EPS and sales estimates, with platform revenue up 28% year-over-year.

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Methodologies and Frameworks

• Risk-to-Reward: The speakers argue that the absolute price of a stock (e.g., a $4 stock vs. a $400 stock) is irrelevant; what matters is the risk-to-reward ratio. If a trader risks 4 cents to make 12 cents, it is mathematically identical to risking 50 cents to make $1.50.
• Trend Following: The traders look for "trend breaks"—when a stock breaks a declining trend line or wedge to the upside—as a signal to enter long positions.
• Imbalance Trading: The team monitors market imbalances at 3:50 PM. They warn that reacting to these after the fact is difficult due to algorithmic speed, but they serve as a useful indicator for potential reversals or volatility.

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Notable Quotes

• "The only thing I learned today, and I learn it every day, is you got to be more patient with your trades." — Speaker on the importance of discipline.
• "If you're going to have that much power, you're going to take advantage of it." — Commenting on the naming of military operations and the nature of market dominance.
• "Every single bull market is, quote-unquote, 'irrational.' That's what a bull market is." — Perspective on current market exuberance.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The session concludes that the market is currently driven by high demand for AI-related components and services, with "all roads leading to tech." Despite geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic concerns, the market has shown a tendency to "shrug off" bad news. The main takeaway for traders is to maintain a rule-based approach, focus on high-conviction names with strong fundamentals (like Apple or memory chip manufacturers), and avoid the trap of over-trading during high-volatility earnings events. The team remains bullish on the long-term prospects of companies that can successfully navigate supply chain constraints and maintain expanding service revenues.