Anne Applebaum: 'The West doesn't understand the extremism of Putinism' | DW News

Key Concepts

• Mega Sanctions on Russia
• Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin
• Russian influence on Trump
• Putin's goals in Ukraine (Imperial, Ideological, Geopolitical)
• Undermining international law
• Influence campaigns (AFD in Germany, Brexit, US Elections)
• Shift of political conversation online
• Negative propaganda (Cynicism, Nihilism, Apathy)
• Extremism of Putinism
• Western Misunderstandings of Putin
• Putin's Misunderstandings of the West
• Autocracy Incorporated
• Identity Politics
• Regulating the Internet

Donald Trump and Russia

• Lindsey Graham's claim: Senator Lindsey Graham stated that Donald Trump told him to impose mega sanctions on Russia.
• Trump's decision-making: The speaker believes Trump's decisions are impulsive and not based on geopolitical strategy.
• Conflicting influences: While some advisors support sanctions, others may benefit financially from a deal with Putin, and some in the MAGA movement are pro-Russian.
• Trump's admiration for Putin: Trump admires Putin's unchecked power and may believe Putin is his friend.
• Russian influence investigation: A major investigation found Russian influence on Trump's campaign but couldn't prove criminal involvement.
• Trump's long-standing Russian connections: Trump has had Russian investments in his businesses for over 30 years.
• Trump's views on alliances: Trump has historically been critical of US alliances, as evidenced by his newspaper advertisements in the 1980s.
• Trump's reaction to increased Russian attacks: Despite increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians, Trump has not reacted.
• Trump's empathy: While Trump sometimes shows empathy, he has also used dehumanizing language towards opponents and immigrants.

Putin's Goals in Ukraine

• Three main goals: Putin has three overlapping goals in Ukraine: imperial, ideological, and geopolitical.
• Imperial goal: Putin aims to resurrect the Russian Empire and erase Ukrainian national identity, incorporating Ukraine back into Russia.
• Failed initial plan: The initial plan to conquer Kiev in three days and the rest of Ukraine in six weeks failed.
• Plan B: The current plan is to undermine and destroy Ukraine as much as possible.
• Ideological goal: Putin wants to destroy the ideas that fueled the 2014 Ukrainian revolution (Maidan), such as anti-corruption, rule of law, and transparency.
• War of ideas: Putin sees the conflict as a war of ideas, aiming to suppress the appeal of these concepts within Russia.
• Geopolitical goal: Putin seeks to undermine international law and the post-World War II world order, including the UN Charter and Geneva Conventions.
• Multipolar world: Putin envisions a world where "might makes right" and strong countries can dominate weaker ones.

Russian Influence Campaigns

• Success of AFD in Germany: The campaign to build up the AFD in Germany is considered successful due to the party's significant support.
• Other campaigns: Russia has attempted to influence elections in Britain, France, and the US.
• Brexit: While the Brexit campaign was primarily British, Russia provided some support.
• 2016 US election: Russia campaigned to elect Donald Trump in 2016.
• Shift to online political conversation: The shift of political conversation to the online world has made it easier for external actors to intervene.
• Global information space: The global information space allows for similar political language and tactics to be used in different countries.
• Negative propaganda: Putin's propaganda is primarily negative, promoting cynicism, nihilism, and apathy rather than a positive vision.

Putin's Evolution and Western Misunderstandings

• Putin's early career: Putin has always been a Russian imperialist with criminal connections, despite some initial attempts to be friendly with the West.
• Western misjudgment: Many in the West chose to believe Putin was someone they could do business with.
• Western misunderstanding of Putin's goals: The West underestimates the extremism of Putinism and his broad goals, including the destruction of the transatlantic alliance.
• Path to peace: The path to peace requires convincing Putin that he cannot win the war in Ukraine.
• Putin's underestimation of Ukraine: Putin underestimated the Ukrainian national identity, the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, and the willingness of Ukrainians to fight back.
• Putin's underestimation of Western support: Putin underestimated the ability and willingness of Europe and the United States to help Ukraine.

Differing European Reactions

• Hungary: Viktor Orban's decision to back Russia is driven by economic needs and the belief that Russia and China will provide financial support.
• Slovakia: Slovakia's position is more complicated, involving money, allegiance to Orban, and fear of Slovak courts and civil society.
• Potential actions against Hungary: Suspending Hungary's voting rights in the EU is suggested as a possible response.

Additional Measures Against Russia

• Information campaign: The West has not launched an information campaign directed at Russians to explain sanctions and the reasons for supporting Ukraine.
• Disbanding of the Global Engagement Center: The Trump administration disbanded a State Department program that identified and exposed Russian disinformation campaigns.

European Shift in Perspective

• Recognition of the Russian threat: Many European leaders now understand the threat Russia poses to Europe itself.
• Shift towards defense: There is a shift towards thinking differently about defense, including increased spending and adapting to modern warfare.

Trump's Paradoxical Actions

• Lack of strategy: Trump's actions are not driven by a coherent strategy, but rather by a desire to be seen as a peacemaker.
• European rearmament: Despite some actions that pleased Putin, Trump also oversaw a major rearmament program in Europe.

US Political Landscape

• Absence of a clear opposition leader: The US does not have a single leader of the opposition in its parliamentary system.
• Emerging Democratic figures: Several Democratic figures are building constituencies, including Chris Murphy, Pete Buttigieg, and governors from various states.
• Potential Republican challengers to Trump: While no one will challenge Trump before his term is over, the vice president and a few senators are likely to be contenders afterward.
• Desire for calm leadership: There is a potential demand for a more calm and professional style of leadership.
• Identity politics: Politics and voting are increasingly driven by identity group affiliation rather than policy issues.

Autocracies and the West

• Common threat: Autocracies, despite their different ideologies, identify the language of Western democracy (accountability, transparency, rule of law) as a threat.
• Internal weaknesses: To fight back, the West needs to address its own internal weaknesses, such as shell companies, tax havens, dark money, and unregulated internet.
• Regulating the internet: Regulation should focus on transparency and providing access to evidence-based information, not censorship.

Conclusion

The interview highlights the complex interplay between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and the West, emphasizing the need for a strategic and unified approach to counter Russian aggression and influence. It underscores the importance of understanding Putin's goals, addressing internal weaknesses within Western societies, and effectively communicating with the Russian population. The discussion also points to a potential shift in European perspectives on defense and the need for a more robust response to the challenges posed by autocracies in the global information space.