Anne Applebaum on what's next for U.S. and allies after Trump's Greenland demands

Analysis of President Trump’s Davos Speech and its Global Implications

Key Concepts:

• Rupture: A fundamental shift or break from established norms and patterns in international relations.
• Collective Security: The principle that an attack on one state is considered an attack on all, fostering mutual defense.
• Spheres of Influence: A geopolitical concept where major powers dominate and exert control over specific regions or countries.
• Transatlantic Alliance: The political, economic, and military relationship between North America (primarily the US and Canada) and Europe.
• Democratic Backsliding/Decline: The deterioration of democratic institutions and norms within a country.
• Autocracy: A system of government where supreme power is concentrated in the hands of one person or a small group, typically without constitutional limitations.

I. The Shift in US Foreign Policy & the Concept of ‘Rupture’

The discussion centers on President Trump’s recent actions and rhetoric at the Davos summit, specifically his threats of military action in Greenland and potential tariffs against European allies. Anne Applebaum argues that these actions, while seemingly erratic, signal a deeper, more fundamental change in US foreign policy. She highlights Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s use of the term “rupture,” emphasizing that this isn’t a mere transition but a complete break from the past. This rupture manifests as a diminished valuing of principles like collective security, which have historically underpinned the relationship between the US and its allies. The core point is that allies perceive the US as fundamentally altered, necessitating the creation of new alliances and institutions to navigate this new reality.

II. The Evolving Transatlantic Alliance

Amna Nawaz asks about the state of the transatlantic alliance, questioning whether it has been merely “bent, but not broken.” Applebaum refutes this framing, stating the alliance is evolving. The President’s National Security Strategy explicitly demonstrates a decreased prioritization of traditional allies, particularly Europe, and a skepticism towards European liberal democracy. This has led to a realization within Europe that it must act independently, both economically and in terms of security.

A key example provided is Europe’s increasing role in supporting Ukraine, both financially and militarily, with the US providing primarily intelligence support. Applebaum asserts this trend will continue, leading to further separation between the US and Europe, a change she and Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission) both describe as “permanent.” This permanence means the shift won’t be reversed by a change in US presidents or a change in Trump’s tone.

III. The Pursuit of American Dominance & its Consequences

The conversation shifts to Trump’s apparent pursuit of a policy of “spheres of influence,” where the US seeks to dominate its own “backyard” – the Western Hemisphere. Applebaum quotes from her recent Atlantic article: “Far from making us more powerful, the pursuit of American dominance will make us weaker, eventually leaving us with no sphere and no influence at all.”

She clarifies that while Trump may not possess a coherent, long-term strategy, individuals around him advocate for dictating the terms of engagement for countries in the Western Hemisphere, including trade, associations, and even government types. This approach assumes allies are a burden rather than an asset. Applebaum contrasts this with the post-World War II era, where US alliances fostered peace and prosperity, built on shared values and mutual loyalty. She emphasizes that Trump is the first president since 1945 who doesn’t prioritize leading a coalition of democracies.

IV. Implications for American Democracy & National Identity

Applebaum connects the shift in foreign policy to a broader crisis of American democracy. She argues that the historical emphasis on democracy as a core component of US foreign policy and national identity has diminished. This void has allowed alternative, potentially exclusionary, definitions of American identity to emerge, such as those based on ancestry (“white heritage American”) or religious nationalism.

This erosion of democratic values extends domestically, manifesting in attempts to politicize and undermine institutions like the courts and the civil service. Applebaum states this is the first administration in a long time, at least at the federal level, that hasn’t valued these institutions and has actively sought to change their nature. This internal shift, she argues, has altered how both Americans and the world perceive the US.

V. Notable Quotes:

• Mark Carney: “This is not a moment of transition. It’s a moment of rupture.” – Highlighting the fundamental shift in international relations.
• Anne Applebaum: “Far from making us more powerful, the pursuit of American dominance will make us weaker, eventually leaving us with no sphere and no influence at all.” – Arguing against the policy of spheres of influence.
• Anne Applebaum: “This is actually the first president since 1945 who doesn't see himself as a leading democrat leading another group of democracies.” – Emphasizing Trump’s departure from historical US leadership.
• Anne Applebaum & Ursula von der Leyen: Both used the word “permanent” to describe the changes occurring in the transatlantic relationship.

VI. Technical Terms & Concepts:

• Liberal Democracy: A political system characterized by free and fair elections, protection of civil rights and liberties, and the rule of law.
• National Security Strategy: A document outlining a country’s goals, roles, and instruments of national power to promote its interests and security.
• Politicization of Institutions: The process of injecting partisan politics into non-partisan institutions, potentially compromising their objectivity and effectiveness.
• Meritocratic Civil Service: A government bureaucracy based on qualifications and competence rather than political affiliation.

VII. Logical Connections & Synthesis:

The conversation flows logically from an analysis of Trump’s recent actions at Davos to a broader discussion of the implications for US foreign policy, the transatlantic alliance, and ultimately, American democracy. Applebaum consistently links these seemingly disparate areas, arguing that the shift in foreign policy is both a symptom and a cause of a deeper crisis of national identity and democratic values. The discussion builds from specific examples (Greenland, tariffs, Ukraine) to broader theoretical concepts (rupture, spheres of influence, democratic backsliding).

Conclusion:

The primary takeaway is that President Trump’s actions signal a profound and potentially permanent shift in US foreign policy, characterized by a diminished commitment to traditional alliances, a pursuit of American dominance, and a weakening of democratic norms both domestically and internationally. This “rupture” necessitates a re-evaluation of the role of Europe in the world and raises serious questions about the future of American leadership and its impact on global stability. The analysis suggests that the US is moving away from a model of collaborative leadership towards a more transactional and potentially isolationist approach, with significant consequences for the international order.