Analysis: 'Netanyahu will go home a happy man,' following meeting with Trump

Key Concepts

• Netanyahu’s Objectives: Securing US support regarding Iran, shifting blame for Gaza ceasefire delays, and obtaining public pressure for a presidential pardon.
• Settler Violence in the West Bank: Illegal Israeli expansion and violence against Palestinians, causing concern within the US administration.
• US-Israel Relations: The unusual level of direct US presidential intervention in Israeli domestic legal matters (pardon request).
• Ceasefire Negotiations: Stalled progress from Phase One to Phase Two, with blame attributed to Hamas by Trump.

Netanyahu’s Gains from Trump Meeting

Mark Stone reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu achieved his primary objectives during his meeting with former US President Donald Trump. Specifically, Netanyahu secured Trump’s public endorsement of potential military action against Iran. Trump stated the US would “whack Iran” if necessary, referencing the potential need to “refuel the B2 bombers.” This aligns with Israel’s concerns regarding Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities, which Israel believes are being rapidly redeveloped.

Secondly, Trump publicly blamed Hamas for the stalled progress in transitioning from Phase One to Phase Two of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, absolving Israel of responsibility. This is a significant win for Netanyahu, who seeks to deflect criticism regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

The Pardon Issue: Unprecedented US Intervention

A particularly noteworthy outcome of the meeting was Trump’s public statement regarding Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial. Trump announced he is “pressuring the Israeli president to pardon the Israeli prime minister.” Stone emphasizes the exceptional nature of this intervention, stating, “Let that sink in because that is not one bit normal…the idea that an American president would pressurize an Israeli president to pardon the sitting prime minister.” This intervention is crucial for Netanyahu, as a pardon from the Israeli president is his only path to resolving the legal challenges he faces. The year ahead is described as “pivotal” for Netanyahu due to this trial.

Divergence on the West Bank

While Trump largely supported Netanyahu’s positions, a point of divergence emerged regarding the situation in the West Bank. Stone highlights “massive settler violence taking place in the West Bank” alongside “massive Israeli expansion, construction in the West Bank, entirely illegal under international law.” Despite this, Trump stated, “we do not agree 100%, but BB in the end will do the right thing.”

However, Stone notes that officials within the Trump administration express “significant concern” about the settler violence and expansion, indicating a disconnect between Trump’s public statement and the views of his advisors. This suggests potential internal debate within the US regarding its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the legality of Israeli actions in the West Bank.

Overall Assessment

Stone concludes that Netanyahu will likely return to Israel “a happy man,” having successfully secured key concessions and public support from Donald Trump. The meeting served to bolster Netanyahu’s domestic and foreign policy objectives, particularly concerning Iran and his legal situation. The unusual level of US presidential intervention in Israeli domestic affairs, specifically regarding the pardon request, is highlighted as a particularly significant and unprecedented aspect of the encounter.