America's Kurdish betrayal: has ISIS been given a second chance?

Key Concepts

Rojava: The Kurdish-declared autonomous region in northeastern Syria, aspiring to greater Kurdish autonomy.
SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces): A multi-ethnic alliance led by Kurdish YPG/YPJ forces, a key US partner in the fight against ISIS.
YPG/YPJ: Kurdish People's Protection Units (male/female), linked to the PKK and central to the SDF.
PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party): A designated terrorist organization fighting for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey.
March 10th Agreement: A failed agreement between the SDF and the Syrian government regarding SDF integration into Syrian security forces.
Ahmad al-Shara: The interim president of Syria, leading the transitional government.
Caesar Sanctions: US sanctions imposed on Syria, recently lifted to encourage engagement with the al-Shara government.
ISIS Resurgence: The potential for a revival of Islamic State activity due to instability in northeastern Syria.

The Shifting Landscape of Syria: A Breakdown of Recent Events (January 26, 2026)

This episode of Battle Lines focuses on the recent dramatic shifts in Syria, specifically the Syrian government’s retaking of territory previously controlled by the SDF in northeastern Syria, and the implications for regional stability and the fight against ISIS. The discussion, featuring Sophia Yan and Dr. Burju Oschilik, dissects the historical context, current dynamics, and potential future scenarios.

Historical Context & The Rise of Rojava

The current situation stems from the power vacuum created during the Syrian Civil War, beginning around 2012-2013. As the Syrian army focused on combating the Arab insurgency, Kurdish forces, primarily the YPG and YPJ (linked to the PKK, designated a terrorist organization by the UK, EU, US, and Turkey), gained control of key territory in northeastern Syria, including dams, border crossings, and oil/gas fields. This led to the establishment of “Rojava,” a self-governing region aspiring to Kurdish autonomy, influenced by the PKK’s ideology of “democratic autonomy” and “democratic confederism” – a vision of a borderless Kurdish confederation spanning Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. The YPG/YPJ gained prominence as a crucial US partner in the fight against ISIS, forming the SDF. This partnership, however, created a complex dynamic given the PKK’s designation as a terrorist organization.

The Collapse of the March 10th Agreement & Syrian Government Offensive

The recent escalation was triggered by the failure of the March 10th Agreement, intended to integrate the SDF into Syrian security forces. Both sides blamed each other for the lack of progress. Damascus, under interim President Ahmad al-Shara, demanded full territorial control and a centralized state, a vision supported by the US and Turkey. The Syrian army launched a military offensive to reclaim territory from the SDF, taking Kurdish forces by surprise despite potential prior intelligence and planning. The SDF overplayed their hand, miscalculating the extent of continued US support. The offensive was facilitated by shifting loyalties among Arab tribes within SDF-controlled areas, who began to favor Damascus.

Current Situation & Ceasefire (January 26, 2026)

As of January 26, 2026, a ceasefire is in effect, primarily to allow for the relocation of approximately 7,000 Islamic State fighters and their families to Iraq, overseen by the US. However, the ceasefire is fragile, and significant distrust remains between the Kurds and the Syrian government. While al-Shara has made some concessions regarding Kurdish language, religious holidays, and citizenship, Kurds fear these changes are superficial and could be reversed. There are also concerns about potential abuse and harassment within the camps as Damascus takes control.

The Role of External Actors

United States: The US is shifting its strategy, preferring to work with a state actor (the al-Shara government) rather than a non-state actor (the SDF). The US has also formally included al-Shara’s government in the coalition against ISIS. However, the US’s perceived abandonment of the SDF has fueled distrust among the Kurds.
Turkey: Turkey has long viewed the Kurdish presence in Syria as a threat due to its links to the PKK. Turkey achieved its objectives – a rollback of Kurdish territorial control – without direct military intervention, suggesting coordination with Damascus and Washington.
Israel: Israel did not intervene to support the Kurds, despite past support for the Druze community in Syria. This fueled distrust among some Kurdish factions.
Iraq: Iraq is becoming a key staging ground for US-Iran dynamics and is now responsible for receiving thousands of ISIS prisoners, presenting significant security and logistical challenges.

The ISIS Threat & Prisoner Relocation

The instability in northeastern Syria raises serious concerns about a potential resurgence of ISIS. The relocation of prisoners to Iraq does not address the underlying problem and raises questions about Iraq’s capacity to manage and prosecute these detainees, many of whom are foreign nationals. The international community has been slow to address the issue of foreign fighters and their families held in Syrian camps.

Key Arguments & Perspectives

Betrayal of the Kurds: Dr. Oschilik acknowledges a sense of betrayal among the SDF, given the US’s shift in policy and perceived abandonment.
Shifting US Strategy: The US prioritizes working with state actors and stabilizing Syria, even if it means aligning with a government with a problematic past.
Arab Tribal Dynamics: The shifting loyalties of Arab tribes within SDF-controlled areas were crucial to the Syrian government’s success.
The Future of Syria: The success of the al-Shara government hinges on its ability to create an inclusive Syria that respects the rights of all its citizens, including the Kurds.

Notable Quotes

“We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars we end.” – (Attributed to a general statement about US foreign policy, likely referencing the broader context of regional conflicts).
“Rajavo was the first experiment of the PKK and its affiliates experiment in territorial control in northern Syria.” – Dr. Burju Oschilik, highlighting the significance of Rojava as a practical manifestation of the PKK’s ideological goals.
“There's a saying in Arabic about how they're starting from below scratch, below zero.” – Sophia Yan, describing the immense challenges facing Syria’s reconstruction.

Technical Terms

PKK: Kurdistan Workers' Party, a Kurdish militant and political organization.
YPG/YPJ: Kurdish People's Protection Units, the armed wing of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in Syria.
Rojava: Kurdish for "West," referring to the autonomous region in northeastern Syria.
Caesar Sanctions: US sanctions targeting the Syrian government and its supporters.
Democratic Confederalism: A political ideology developed by Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the PKK, advocating for a decentralized, self-governing system.

Synthesis & Conclusion

The recent events in northeastern Syria represent a significant shift in the regional power dynamics. The Syrian government’s successful offensive, facilitated by shifting alliances and a change in US policy, has effectively dismantled the Rojava project and brought the region under Damascus’s control. While this may contribute to stability in Syria, it raises serious concerns about the future of the Kurds, the potential for an ISIS resurgence, and the broader implications for US foreign policy in the Middle East. The situation underscores the complex interplay of local, regional, and international factors shaping the Syrian conflict and highlights the need for a comprehensive and inclusive approach to address the challenges facing the country. The future of Syria remains uncertain, but the coming months will be critical in determining whether al-Shara can deliver on his promises of an equitable and stable Syria for all its citizens.