AMD Shareholders Get Ready‼️The Next Move will be Insane

Key Concepts

• AMD Stock Performance: Significant recent gains and projected future upside.
• Strategic Acquisitions: Xylings, ZT Systems, Silo AI, and others as drivers of growth and competitive positioning.
• Competitive Landscape: AMD's strategy versus Nvidia's, focusing on open standards versus a walled garden approach.
• Partnerships: Key collaborations with IBM, OpenAI, Oracle, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Sony, and Xbox.
• Market Dynamics: The shift from AMD being overlooked to becoming a critical player in the AI market.
• Investment Strategy: Holding AMD shares for long-term growth, comparing its trajectory to other successful turnaround stocks.
• Financial Projections: Bull, base, and bare case scenarios for AMD's future revenue and net income.
• Leadership: Lisa Su's role in pivoting and driving AMD's growth.

AMD Stock Performance and Early Stage of Growth

The speaker highlights substantial gains in AMD stock, with a personal public account showing $45,000 up today and a total of $361,000 in gains. The overall public account has reached a record high of $4.142 million. The core argument is that the current move in AMD stock is "early," comparing it to being in the "second or third inning of a nine-inning game." This suggests significant upside potential and a long duration for the current growth phase. The speaker emphasizes that while short-term market fluctuations are uncontrollable, focusing on portfolio allocation and stock selection is key to long-term success.

AMD's Transformation and Strategic Acquisitions

The video traces AMD's journey from a near-bankrupt company in 2015-2016, trading at $1-$2 per share, to a company with a market cap approaching $400 billion and potential to reach over a trillion dollars. This turnaround is attributed to CEO Lisa Su's strategic leadership. Key acquisitions are identified as crucial steps in this transformation:

• Xylings Acquisition (2022): A $50 billion deal that brought not only revenue and profitability but also a highly respected engineering team, crucial for future product development.
• ZT Systems Acquisition (2024): Positioned AMD to directly compete with Nvidia's integrated solutions and battle for market share over the next 5-10 years.
• Silo AI Acquisition (Summer prior to recording): This acquisition of Europe's largest private AI lab, focused on end-to-end AI solutions based on open standards, is seen as a critical move for AMD's AI hardware development. This contrasts with Nvidia's more "walled garden" approach, with AMD aiming for broader market share through open standards, similar to Android's strategy.
• Silicon Photonics Hub Establishment (Taiwan, $280 million): A recent development aimed at accelerating co-packaged optics, further enhancing AMD's technological roadmap.
• Other Acquisitions: Mention of smaller, less publicized acquisitions like "innoc semi Briome unteather AI" underscores a consistent strategy of acquiring talent and technology for long-term product and service development.

Key Partnerships and Competitive Positioning

AMD is actively forming strategic partnerships with major tech players, positioning itself as a critical component in the AI ecosystem.

• IBM: Collaboration on hybrid quantum-centric supercomputing.
• OpenAI: A significant strategic partnership to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs. This is highlighted as a major endorsement, as OpenAI is a leader in AI, and their commitment to AMD products signals a strong future for AMD's revenue and brand.
• Oracle: Expansion of partnership to provide hardware for Oracle's infrastructure cloud, including the deployment of an AI supercluster with 50,000 AMD Instinct MI450 series GPUs starting in Q3 2026. This builds on existing use of MI300X and the recently produced 355 series. The MI450 series is expected to drive significant revenue and margin growth.
• Meta: Partnerships focused on AI infrastructure, with Meta utilizing AMD EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs for data centers and AI services like Llama 4. Meta is anticipated to be a major customer for the upcoming 400 series.
• Google: Strategic partnerships where Google Cloud uses AMD EPYC processors for its virtual machines, including AI tasks. Google is also expected to be a significant customer for the 400 series.
• Elon Musk: While historically close to Nvidia, Musk has acknowledged AMD's improving capabilities for small and medium-sized models, indicating growing respect and potential future adoption across his ventures (Tesla, XAI).
• Microsoft: Collaboration to bring cloud to clients with ROCm software, enhancing client power for developers.
• Sony & Xbox: AMD is developing GPU technology for the next generation of PlayStation and Xbox consoles, highlighting its role in the gaming sector.

The speaker posits that AMD's strategy of undercutting Nvidia's pricing is crucial for keeping Nvidia in check and preventing exorbitant pricing, which could stifle innovation. AMD is described as the "queen piece" in the AI chess game, essential for the ecosystem's sustainability, while Nvidia is the "king piece."

Market Trajectory and Investment Rationale

The speaker draws parallels between AMD's current situation and the trajectories of other successful turnaround stocks like Palantir, Meta, SoFi, ELF, and Celsius. These companies, once overlooked or undervalued, experienced multi-year growth cycles after demonstrating significant product development and revenue growth.

• Palantir: Up 145% year-to-date, with previous years seeing 300%+ and 170%+ gains. The speaker has a 2,000% gain on Palantir.
• Meta: Saw a 450% increase from Q4 2022 to Q1 2025 after being considered "thrown out."
• SoFi: Went from $7 a year ago to nearly $30, with the speaker up 250% on a small position.
• ELF: Speaker is up 1586% on a stock bought for $7 in 2019, now trading at $122.
• Celsius: Bought for $21.95-$22.99 in February, now trading at $63, with the speaker up 159%.

The speaker argues that AMD's performance since Q4 2021 (63% up, barely beating the NASDAQ's 57%) indicates it's still in the early stages of its growth cycle, unlike Meta's massive 450% run. The current stock price of around $250 is seen as a stepping stone to $300-$400, with potential for $500-$1000+ in the long term.

Financial Projections and Upside Potential

The speaker presents financial projections using thousandx.com, outlining three scenarios:

• Bull Case:

  • 40% average annual revenue growth over the next four years.
  • 50% net income growth, reaching a 22% net income margin.
  • This scenario projects a stock price of over $1,000 by 2029.
  • The speaker notes that Nvidia's growth rates have been significantly higher, suggesting AMD's bull case might be conservative, especially regarding net income margins (potentially reaching 30-35%).

• Base Case (Expected Scenario):

  • 35% average annual revenue growth over the next four years.
  • 45% net income growth, reaching a 22% net income margin.
  • Projects a stock price of $700-$900 in 3-4 years, with potential for $300+ in 2026 and $400-$500 in 2027.
  • The 22% net income margin is considered potentially low, with a possibility of reaching 25-30% sooner.

• Bare Case (Disaster Scenario):

  • 20% annual revenue growth.
  • 25% net income growth.
  • 20% net income margins by 2029.
  • This scenario suggests a flat stock price over the period, deemed a "very low probability" given AMD's execution.

The speaker emphasizes that these projections are conservative, particularly regarding net income margins, and that AMD could achieve significantly higher margins, leading to even greater upside.

Investment Strategy and Holding Period

The speaker advocates for holding AMD shares tightly, comparing it to a child holding a teddy bear. They are not taking profits at current levels ($250) or even at a hypothetical $500, believing the long-term potential is much higher.

• Rationale for Holding:
  • Every major tech company is aligning with AMD.
  • Big tech companies would not invest heavily in inferior technology.
  • Elon Musk's positive comments indicate AMD's growing importance.
  • AMD's pricing strategy is essential for the broader AI market's sustainability.
  • Nvidia is entering a revenue growth deceleration phase, while AMD is poised for sustained double-digit revenue growth into the 2030s.
  • Lisa Su's guidance is reliable and often exceeded.
  • Wall Street and hedge funds will drive the stock higher as they recognize AMD's growth potential, especially as Nvidia's growth slows.

The speaker believes that the market often lags behind technological advancements, with recognition coming only when the numbers start to hit, as seen with Meta, SoFi, Palantir, and even Nvidia itself in 2022. The current moment is seen as an opportunity before widespread market recognition fully materializes. The speaker plans to hold for at least another year, waiting for significant revenue acceleration and for the stock to reach prices that reflect its true long-term value, potentially $500 or more.

Conclusion and Call to Action

The central thesis is that AMD is in the early stages of a multi-year growth cycle driven by strategic acquisitions, strong partnerships, and a competitive advantage in pricing and open standards. The speaker believes that AMD's leadership, particularly Lisa Su, has executed a masterful strategy that is not yet fully appreciated by the market. Investors are encouraged to hold their shares tightly and wait for the significant upside potential to be realized, as the company is poised to become a dominant force in the AI hardware market. The video concludes with an invitation to join the speaker's private stock group, highlighting upcoming membership limitations and price increases.