Alfred McCoy: The U.S. is an empire in decline

Cold War on Five Continents: A Global History of Empire and Espionage – Detailed Summary

Key Concepts: Imperial Decline, Geopolitics (Eurasian Landmass, Axial Ends), Rules-Based International Order, Sovereignty, Trontinental Strategy, Bretton Woods System, Global Trade, Energy Policy, US Foreign Policy under Trump.

I. The United States as an Empire in Decline

Alfred McCoy argues that the United States is demonstrably an empire in decline, citing both domestic and foreign policy indicators. He draws parallels to historical imperial declines, noting that most experience internal challenges to constitutional order – exemplified by the January 6th, 2021 events. The rise of populist movements demanding a return to “American greatness” is also presented as a symptom of this decline. McCoy asserts the US has been the most powerful empire in history for the past 80 years, but has been in decline since approximately 2002, a decline accelerated by the policies of the Trump administration. He emphasizes that due to the US’s global integration, its decline is protracted and complex.

II. Breaking the “Iron Laws of Geopolitics” & The Trontinental Strategy

A core argument centers on the Trump administration’s deviation from established geopolitical principles. For the past millennium, McCoy explains, any aspiring global hegemon must control the Eurasian landmass, home to 70% of the world’s population and productivity. During the Cold War, the US successfully maintained control of Eurasia’s “axial ends” – through NATO in the West and bilateral defense pacts with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia in the East. This allowed the US to contain the Sino-Soviet bloc and ultimately benefit from their internal collapse and strategic errors (like the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan).

However, McCoy contends that President Trump has abandoned this strategy, adopting what he terms a “trontinental strategy.” This involves allowing Russia to dominate its former Soviet sphere, permitting China dominance in East Asia, and focusing US power solely on the Americas. This represents a unilateral surrender of influence over Eurasia, a “bizarre” shift in policy. Trump’s hostility towards NATO, exemplified by his attempt to purchase Greenland, has further damaged the alliance.

III. Dismantling the US-Led Global Order & Sovereignty

McCoy details how the Trump administration actively sought to dismantle the US-led global order, built upon principles of national sovereignty and international law. He highlights two core principles enshrined in the UN Charter: inalienable human rights for all and the inviolability of national sovereignty – the agreement that nations would refrain from territorial expansion by force.

Trump’s actions, including the attempted acquisition of Greenland and threats of military force to achieve territorial goals, are presented as violations of both the written and unwritten rules governing international relations. McCoy argues Trump views the world as comprised of great powers with distinct spheres of influence, granting the US unchecked power within the Americas, disregarding both UN resolutions and established norms. He notes this disregard for international law isn’t unique to Trump, extending to the Biden administration, European leaders, and Israeli leaders.

IV. The Impact on Global Trade & Economic Decline

The erosion of the international order is most visible in the realm of trade. McCoy explains the post-WWII economic order established at Bretton Woods (1944) comprised the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), now the World Trade Organization (WTO). These institutions regulated currency transactions, development, and international trade, reducing average tariffs from 22% in 1945-46 to 2% by the time Trump took office.

Trump’s tariffs, however, have “shredded” this system. While framed as an assertion of American sovereignty and a path to economic prosperity, McCoy argues this is fundamentally flawed. In 1945, the US controlled 50-60% of the world economy, but now accounts for only 20%. The remaining 80% of the global economy is increasingly trading amongst itself, forming bilateral and multilateral agreements excluding the US. Countries like Canada and Britain are turning to China.

V. Energy Policy & Accelerating Decline

Beyond geopolitics and trade, McCoy criticizes US energy policy as a further contributor to decline. He argues the US is failing to adapt to the ongoing energy revolution, comparing it to Britain ignoring the development of steam engines and continuing to rely on horses. He synthesizes these failures – geopolitical miscalculation, poor energy policy, and a destructive trade regime – to conclude that the US is on a trajectory of accelerating decline.

Notable Quotes:

• “Every empire has its ascent and every empire inevitably has its decline. And we are on that long trajectory of decline.” – Alfred McCoy
• “Trump has a kind of…like what I call a trontinental strategy…basically Putin and Russia dominate the old Soviet sphere…China is allowed to dominate its periphery in East Asia and we are correspondingly dominant in in in in the Americas.” – Alfred McCoy
• “It would be as if the United States decided that when Britain was developing steam engines that we were going to breed more horses. It’s it’s it’s beyond belief.” – Alfred McCoy

Technical Terms:

• Hegemon: A dominant power in an international system.
• Axial Ends: Strategically important points on the Eurasian landmass (Western and Eastern) used for control and influence.
• Bretton Woods System: The post-WWII international monetary and economic order established at the Bretton Woods Conference.
• GATT/WTO: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization – institutions regulating international trade.
• Trontinental Strategy: A geopolitical strategy of dividing the world into three spheres of influence (Russia, China, and the US).

Logical Connections:

The discussion progresses logically from identifying the symptoms of imperial decline (domestic unrest, populist movements) to analyzing the specific policy decisions of the Trump administration that are exacerbating this decline. The analysis moves from geopolitical strategy (Eurasia) to economic policy (trade) and then to energy policy, demonstrating how failures in each area contribute to the overall trajectory. The dismantling of the international order is presented as both a consequence of and a catalyst for US decline.

Data & Statistics:

• Eurasia comprises 70% of the world’s population and productivity.
• The US controlled 50-60% of the world economy after WWII.
• The US now accounts for approximately 20% of world trade and productivity.
• Average international tariffs fell from 22% (1945-46) to 2% under the established international trade order.

Conclusion:

Alfred McCoy presents a compelling, and critical, argument that the United States is in a state of accelerating decline, driven by a series of strategic miscalculations and policy reversals under the Trump administration. He contends that abandoning established geopolitical principles, dismantling the US-led international order, and failing to adapt to economic and energy shifts are collectively undermining US power and influence, leading to a future where the US is increasingly isolated and marginalized on the global stage. The core takeaway is that the US is not simply experiencing a cyclical downturn, but a fundamental shift in its global position, driven by self-inflicted wounds.