Air cover for Zelensky: How much can stepped-up French support boost Ukraine? • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• 10-Year Military Pact: A long-term defense agreement signed between Ukraine and France.
• Rafale Fighter Jets: French-made fighter aircraft, a key component of the defense pact.
• Air Cover for Ukraine: The concept of providing aerial protection to Ukraine, including the debate around no-fly zones and advanced air defense systems.
• Sky Shield Initiative: A European initiative aimed at strengthening air defense capabilities.
• Article 5 (NATO): The collective defense clause of the North Atlantic Treaty, stating that an attack against one member is an attack against all.
• Infiltration Tactics: Russian military strategy involving small, discreet groups of soldiers to advance and bypass defenses.
• Critical Energy Infrastructure: Essential facilities for power generation and distribution, targeted by Russian attacks.
• Corruption Scandals: Allegations of embezzlement and misuse of funds within Ukraine's government and defense sectors.
• EU Membership: The prospect of Ukraine joining the European Union, contingent on reforms.
• Rule of Law and Good Governance Reforms: Essential conditions for Ukraine's EU accession and for effective aid utilization.
• Russian Reparations: The idea of using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's reconstruction and defense.
• Joint Production in Europe: Efforts to collaborate on defense manufacturing and development among European nations.
• FCAS (Future Combat Air Systems): A joint Franco-German-Spanish project for a next-generation fighter jet program.

Ukraine-France Defense Pact and Air Cover for Ukraine

The video discusses a significant development: Ukraine signing a 10-year military pact with France, a key ally. This pact includes the potential delivery of over 100 Rafale fighter jets to Ukraine over the next decade, in addition to F-16s and Swedish Gripen planes pledged by other allies. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed this as a "historic decision" and a "very serious fleet," concerns were raised by experts like Samantha Deennon. Deennon highlighted that Ukraine needs weapons now, not in three to ten years, emphasizing the urgency of current air defense needs. She argued that a no-fly zone, or a "Sky Shield" initiative, would be more impactful on the battlefield today. The discussion also touched upon the strong political signal this pact sends to Russia, Ukraine, and European allies, especially at a time when US commitment to the continent is perceived as scaling back.

European Defense Capabilities and US Role

The absence of US aircraft carriers in Europe, with the USS Gerald Ford deployed elsewhere, raises questions about European self-reliance in defense. Gustav Gresel explained that the US role is crucial not just for providing assets but as the ultimate guarantor. He elaborated that in case of a Russian strike on a European airbase used for operations over Ukraine, the US involvement would be critical in potentially triggering Article 5 of NATO, providing a deterrent against escalation. However, hesitancy among European nations, fearing Russian escalation, remains a significant obstacle. Nick Holdsworth echoed this sentiment, noting that Europeans have been hesitant to provide robust support to Ukraine since the initial invasion, suggesting that a stronger, more forceful stance from the outset could have altered the conflict's trajectory.

Sabotage and Article 5 Implications

The suspected sabotage of a key rail line between Warsaw and Lublin, crucial for aid to Ukraine, brought up the question of whether such an act could trigger Article 5. Holdsworth stated that without definitive proof of Russian or Belarusian involvement, it's difficult to say. However, he suspected that even with proof, European allies might be too "timorous" to invoke Article 5 due to their general hesitancy over the past three and a half years.

Ukraine's Immediate Needs and Financial Concerns

Daria Kalanuk, from the Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Action Center, expressed a critical concern: "Who will pay for that deal?" She pointed out that the pact is about Ukraine's ability to buy jets over 10 years, while Ukraine's immediate need is for weapons now to fight the ongoing war. Kalanuk stressed that Russia should be made to pay for the damages, referencing the "Make Russia Pay" campaign and the potential use of approximately 200 billion euros of Russian money held in Europe (e.g., in Euroclear) for reparations. She highlighted the dire situation in Ukraine, with nightly attacks on critical infrastructure, including energy systems, and the constant threat of missile and drone strikes. Kalanuk emphasized that current air defense systems are not equipped to handle the scale of Russian attacks, and that Ukraine needs immediate solutions and funding to scale up its own innovative defense production.

Russian Infiltration Tactics and Winter Threats

The video detailed Russia's shift to infiltration tactics, using small groups of soldiers on motorcycles and in civilian vehicles to move discreetly and bypass drone surveillance. This strategy aims to overcome the Ukrainian advantage in destroying tanks. Gustav Gresel explained that countering such tactics requires more infantry and depth in defense, which Ukraine lacks. He noted that Ukrainian troops are improvising with drones and remote-controlled vehicles, but these are dependent on weather and electronic warfare conditions. Looking ahead to winter, Kalanuk anticipates intensified attacks on critical energy infrastructure, with Russia learning to bypass sophisticated air defenses and scaling up drone production. She warned that Russia's strategy is to make Ukraine "unlivable."

Anti-Missile Systems vs. Fighter Jets and European Defense Budgets

Samantha Deennon argued that French anti-missile systems, slated for use next year, are more aligned with Ukraine's immediate needs than expensive fighter jet sorties. She illustrated the inefficiency of using high-value aircraft like F-16s or F-35s against low-cost drones. Deennon highlighted Ukraine's own innovation in drone and missile production, including the "Flamingo" missile, which she claimed surpasses the Tomahawk in range and payload. She also pointed out that while Ukraine and Russia are scaling up production, Europe is only beginning to increase defense budgets. Deennon questioned France's ability to provide sufficient air defense systems like the SAMP/T (equivalent to the US Patriot), noting that France has only eight, while Ukraine needs twelve. She also mentioned a blockage in delivering German Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Franco-German Defense Cooperation and FCAS Program

The discussion shifted to joint production in Europe, specifically the challenges facing the Future Combat Air Systems (FCAS) program, a joint Franco-German-Spanish initiative for a next-generation fighter jet. The program is reportedly "immobilized and close to dead" due to differing corporate cultures between Dassault Aviation (France) and Airbus (Germany). Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault, has reportedly shown little interest in German demands, leading to potential scrapping or significant reform of the FCAS program. Nick Holdsworth suggested that the upcoming meeting between the French President and German Chancellor might address the potential scrapping of FCAS, with Germany prioritizing AI-assisted cloud systems for enhanced information sharing over new hardware. Gustav Gresel agreed that the industrial positions are difficult to reconcile and questioned the necessity of the FCAS program, suggesting that the Rafale itself was a product of a previous failed attempt to merge French and German aircraft industries. He proposed focusing on drones and combat information systems, with a division of labor that satisfies both industries.

Ukraine's EU Aspirations and Corruption Challenges

Emmanuel Macron dangled the prospect of EU membership for Ukraine, linking it to deep reforms, particularly in the rule of law, transparency, governance, and the fight against corruption. Daria Kalanuk viewed this as encouragement but also a warning. She emphasized that Ukraine's resilience depends on its institutions' ability to function effectively, and that corruption scandals, such as the "mindage gate" investigation involving former business partners of Zelensky and touching critical energy infrastructure, are deeply damaging. She called for Zelensky to address corruption within his inner circle, specifically mentioning his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, as a key figure whose influence needs to be scrutinized. Kalanuk stressed that Ukraine is a democracy, evidenced by the independent anti-corruption bodies exposing these scandals, and that EU accession should be conditional on concrete reforms.

Democracy in Wartime and Zelensky's Leadership

Samantha Deennon acknowledged the difficulty of maintaining democracy during wartime but argued that Ukraine's current situation, with anti-corruption bodies functioning and public protests against government decisions, demonstrates its democratic resilience. She stated that Ukraine needs Zelensky as the internationally recognized face of the country, but also recognized the significant corruption problem. Deennon cautioned against holding elections during wartime due to logistical and interference challenges, drawing parallels to historical wartime leadership. Daria Kalanuk agreed that Zelensky is the legitimate president due to the war preventing elections, but stressed the Ukrainian people's right to question him. She reiterated that the strength of Ukraine lies in its people and their demand for justice and fair play, aligning with EU values. Kalanuk emphasized that aid should be conditional on precise rule of law and good governance reforms, which are more critical during wartime.

The Cost of Corruption and Taxpayer Concerns

The discussion highlighted the impact of corruption on public morale and defense efforts. Kalanuk stated that if aid money is stolen, it means soldiers at the front lines or citizens seeking protection are not adequately supported. She acknowledged concerns from Western taxpayers about aid being misspent, but argued that Ukrainian taxpayers are even more vigilant. The scandal involving alleged embezzlement of 100 million euros for defense and energy infrastructure, with accusations of lavish spending like gilded toilets, was presented as a serious blow to Ukraine's image and efforts. Nick Holdsworth noted that such scandals are a "very, very bad look for Ukraine in the middle of war" and that if found guilty, perpetrators would likely face severe prison sentences due to public demand for justice.

European Leverage and Ukraine's Homework

Kalanuk believes that European partners have significant leverage through conditional financial and military aid, tied to precise rule of law and good governance reforms. She pointed to the EU accession report as a roadmap for Ukraine's necessary reforms. While acknowledging the complexity of other reforms, she stressed that rule of law and good governance are paramount during wartime and are demanded by the Ukrainian people. Kalanuk argued that by demanding these reforms, partners are supporting the Ukrainian people, not just Zelensky. She reiterated the need for financial aid to sustain Ukraine's resilience and the importance of finding ways to utilize frozen Russian assets for reparations. Kalanuk concluded that Ukraine's homework is to ensure that money is spent effectively, not on corruption, but on strengthening its defense capabilities, including scaling up production of drones and electronic warfare technologies, to outpace Russia's war economy and its alliances with China, North Korea, and Iran. She stressed that the solution to the war lies within Ukraine, in the hands of its people, and that Zelensky needs to learn lessons and remove his "rotten inner circle."