Ageing Populations In East Asia Shaping Taiwan Strait & Inter-Korea Tensions | CNA Correspondent

East Asia’s Security Landscape in an Aging Era

Key Concepts:

• Demographic Shift: Rapid aging populations across East Asia (China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, North Korea).
• Great Power Rivalry: Increasing competition between the US and China, impacting regional security.
• Taiwan Strait & Korean Peninsula: Active flashpoints with potential for conflict.
• Security Partnerships: Evolving alliances and defense cooperation (Japan-Philippines, Japan-Australia, Japan-South Korea).
• Defense Industrial Base: Growth of defense industries and export trade, particularly in South Korea.
• Military Modernization: Efforts to enhance military capabilities amidst demographic challenges.
• Interoperability: The ability of different armed forces to operate together effectively.
• Peace Dividend: The benefits of a prolonged period of relative peace, and potential loss of awareness regarding security threats.

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I. The Demographic Imperative & Regional Security

East Asia is experiencing a dramatic demographic shift, with projections indicating that most of the region’s advanced economies will have a median age over 50 by mid-century. This aging trend is poised to fundamentally reshape the security landscape, potentially exacerbating existing tensions or leading to new ones. While current disputes are unlikely to be resolved quickly, the speaker suggests two possible trajectories: either a period of simmering differences with inward focus, or an acceleration of tensions before 2050 as nations attempt to solidify their positions. The next 5-10 years are viewed as particularly precarious, with trends not pointing towards increased peace. The core concern isn’t necessarily the aging itself, but the instability during the transition to an older demographic profile.

II. Taiwan: Demographic Challenges & Political Divisions

Taiwan faces a dual challenge: a rapidly aging population and internal political divisions regarding its approach to China. While China refuses to relinquish the use of force for reunification, Taiwan’s military modernization is hampered by its domestic politics. The island’s two dominant parties hold vastly different views on confronting China, particularly regarding the draft system. Initially a two-year draft, it was shortened to one year in 2008 under the KMT (Kuomintang) to improve relations with China, a move criticized for weakening the military. The DPP (Democratic Progressive Party), since taking office in 2016, has attempted to reverse these cuts, demonstrating current support for military modernization.

Taiwan’s strategy isn’t parity with China, but rather signaling the potential for imposing significant costs should China become aggressive, and assuring China that those costs won’t be imposed if aggression is avoided. The goal is to deter invasion by making it demonstrably painful for China.

III. The Korean Peninsula: A Demographic Mirror

The situation on the Korean Peninsula mirrors Taiwan’s in terms of demographics, though North Korea is aging more slowly and is expected to become an aged society by 2029. Both North Korea (with a military exceeding one million troops) and South Korea struggle with recruitment. Despite demographic challenges, North Korea maintains a large, manpower-heavy military, and its birth rate historically outpaces South Korea’s.

North Korea’s military modernization is capital-intensive, and relies heavily on manpower. Due to sanctions, it is increasingly turning to Russia and Iran for expertise, as evidenced by Russian design elements in its latest destroyer. South Korea faces a particularly difficult situation, potentially caught between major powers (US, China, Japan) as their commitments become uncertain.

IV. Shifting Security Partnerships & Japanese Leadership

The region is witnessing notable shifts in security partnerships. A key example is the deepening cooperation between Japan and the Philippines, highlighted by their first joint air force exercise under a reciprocal access agreement (Dshin Bayanihan 525). This agreement allows troops from both nations to conduct joint exercises on each other’s territory. Japan, historically insular in its security cooperation, is now actively reaching out to countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia. This is driven by demographic challenges and the recognition that Japan cannot address these challenges alone.

Japan also has a reciprocal access agreement with Australia (in effect since August 2023). Japan’s economic struggles over the past 30 years necessitate strong partnerships to diversify economic risk and collaborate with foreign entities. A particularly noteworthy development is the improving relationship between Japan and South Korea, with increased joint military exercises (e.g., naval drills focused on missile defense) – a scenario considered unlikely a decade ago. This is attributed to a collective awareness of the region’s demographic challenges and the need for increased interoperability.

V. The Rise of Defense Industries & Economic Considerations

As East Asian countries invest more in defense, the defense industry is becoming a significant economic driver. Military production creates jobs and contributes to economic growth. South Korea is capitalizing on this trend, exporting equipment to countries modernizing their armed forces, filling a niche by offering quality, battle-tested equipment at a lower price point than Western suppliers. South Korea’s advantages lie in shipbuilding and potentially ground warfare equipment, aligning with European warfare patterns.

Japan is also focusing on defense exports, relaxing its export ban to build a stronger defense industry and ensure access to advanced weapons in the future, even amidst demographic changes. The speaker notes that most Japanese defense policy is focused on the next 5-10 years, addressing immediate threats while considering long-term demographic concerns.

VI. The Role of China & the Potential for Escalation

While demographic trends are significant, China’s growing military assertiveness and territorial disputes are considered a more compelling force driving regional realignment. South Korea and Japan are pushing back against China’s claims, influenced by observations of China’s actions in the South China Sea.

The speaker emphasizes that the period before East Asia becomes significantly older is particularly risky, as countries attempt to secure their claims and respond to pressures. This creates a potential for miscalculation and unintended escalation. There is concern that China may become more assertive as Japan’s power potentially diminishes.

VII. Public Perception & Future Outlook

The speaker notes a “peace dividend” enjoyed for a prolonged period, leading to a lack of public awareness regarding potential security threats. While some segments of society maintain a strong sense of national service, the general public struggles to envision large-scale conflict. Despite pessimism regarding the long-term outlook, the speaker expresses optimism about the increased security discussions occurring in Japan, highlighting the transparency of its democratic processes.

Data & Statistics Mentioned:

• East Asia’s median age projected to be over 50 by mid-century.
• Taiwan’s draft length reduced from two years to one year in 2008, then to four months in 2013.
• North Korea’s military exceeds one million troops.
• Japan’s reciprocal access agreement with Australia entered into force in August 2023.
• Japan has struggled with economic growth for the past 30 years.

Conclusion:

East Asia’s demographic challenges are interwoven with geopolitical tensions and evolving security partnerships. While the long-term consequences of aging are uncertain, the transition period presents significant risks of miscalculation and escalation. The region is witnessing a complex interplay of factors – demographic shifts, great power rivalry, and the rise of defense industries – that will shape its security landscape in the coming decades. Increased cooperation, particularly between Japan and regional partners, is seen as crucial for navigating these challenges, but the potential for instability remains high.