After Venezuela, which country could Trump target next?

Key Concepts

• Regime Change/Intervention: Potential US military or economic actions targeting foreign governments.
• Cartels/Gangs: Organized criminal groups involved in drug production and trafficking (specifically cocaine in Colombia and Mexico).
• Economic Sanctions: “Slow strangulation” tactics like cutting off resource supplies (e.g., oil to Cuba).
• Political Provocation: Actions by foreign leaders (like Maduro’s TikTok activity) that may escalate tensions and trigger intervention.
• Diplomatic Handling: A country’s ability to manage relations with the US (Mexico’s relative success compared to Colombia).

Potential Targets for US Intervention: A Ranked Assessment

The discussion centers on predicting which countries might be the next targets for potential intervention by a future Trump administration, following the recent actions taken regarding Venezuela. The assessment isn’t focused on overthrowing regimes directly in all cases, but rather on targeted actions against criminal organizations within those countries, or applying economic pressure.

Colombia: The Most Likely Candidate

Colombia, under President Gustavo Petro, is identified as the most likely next target. This assessment is based on several factors:

• Cocaine Production: Colombia is the world’s largest producer of cocaine, making the criminal gangs operating within its territory a primary concern. A potential intervention would specifically target these gangs involved in coca leaf cultivation and cocaine production, not the Petro regime itself.
• Clashes with Trump: President Petro has had a history of public disagreements with former President Trump, creating a potentially antagonistic relationship.
• Petro’s Provocative Behavior: Petro’s leadership style is characterized as more confrontational and less cautious than other leaders, increasing the risk of escalation. This is contrasted with Maduro’s behavior (see below).

Venezuela: The Catalyst & Precedent

The recent actions against Venezuela serve as a precedent and a key factor in understanding the potential for future interventions. The discussion highlights that President Maduro’s provocative behavior – specifically, “dancing on TikTok” and openly challenging Donald Trump – was a reported catalyst for the recent intervention. As stated, “He’s been being kind of weird and whimsical in an attempt to say that he’s not hassled by the fact that the world’s most powerful aircraft carrier is at his doorstep. And that that is reportedly one of the reasons Trump went for him.” This suggests a willingness to respond to perceived taunts or challenges to US power.

Cuba: A Strategy of Economic Pressure

Cuba is considered a potential target, but a different approach is anticipated. Instead of direct military action, the strategy would likely involve a “slow strangulation” – cutting off essential resources, specifically the oil previously supplied by Venezuela. The expectation is that this economic pressure would lead to the collapse of the Cuban regime. The key distinction is that Cuba’s leadership is described as “keeping their heads down” and avoiding direct confrontation, making a military strike less probable.

Mexico: A Lower Probability, Despite Cartel Activity

Mexico is also identified as a potential target due to the presence of powerful drug cartels. Trump has previously expressed a desire to “hit” these cartels. However, the assessment suggests Mexico is less likely to be targeted than Colombia. The reasoning is that Mexico has historically been more adept at “handling Trump” diplomatically, providing a degree of buffer and potentially delaying any intervention.

Diplomatic Skill as a Deterrent

The discussion emphasizes the importance of diplomatic relations in mitigating the risk of intervention. Mexico’s ability to navigate its relationship with Trump is presented as a protective factor, while Colombia’s more contentious relationship increases its vulnerability. This highlights the role of political maneuvering and strategic communication in avoiding escalation.

Synthesis

The core takeaway is that a future Trump administration might be inclined to intervene in countries where criminal activity (particularly drug trafficking) is prevalent, especially if the leadership of those countries engages in provocative behavior. Colombia is currently considered the most likely target due to its high levels of cocaine production, a strained relationship with Trump, and a leader perceived as more likely to invite confrontation. Cuba is seen as a candidate for economic pressure, while Mexico’s diplomatic skills offer some degree of protection. The Venezuelan example demonstrates a willingness to respond to perceived challenges to US authority, setting a precedent for potential future actions.