After the US government shutdown ends, what's the future of the Democrat Party? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Government Shutdown: A situation where non-essential government operations cease due to a failure of Congress to pass appropriations bills.
• Federal Workers: Employees of the United States federal government.
• Food Stamps (SNAP): Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, providing food-purchasing assistance for low-income individuals and families.
• Public Health Care Subsidies: Financial assistance provided to individuals to help them afford health insurance, often through programs like the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
• Affordable Care Act (ACA) Tax Credits: Subsidies provided under the ACA to reduce the cost of health insurance premiums.
• Filibuster: A legislative tactic, particularly in the U.S. Senate, where a senator or group of senators can delay or block a vote on a bill or other measure by extending debate.
• Midterm Elections: Elections held in the middle of a president's four-year term, where all members of the House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate are elected.
• Populism: A political approach that appeals to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.

Summary of the US Government Shutdown

1. The End of the Longest Government Shutdown

The United States government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, has officially ended. This prolonged shutdown had significant repercussions, including hundreds of thousands of federal workers going unpaid and millions of low-income Americans losing access to food stamps. President Trump and his Republican party are claiming victory, while many Democrats express regret for failing to secure an extension of public health care subsidies.

2. Presidential Blame and Democratic Objectives

President Trump signed the bill to end the shutdown, placing the blame squarely on his political opponents. He stated, "The extremists in the other party insisted on creating the longest government shutdown in American history. And they did it purely for political reasons." Trump accused Democrats of attempting to "extort American taxpayers for hundreds of billions of dollars for illegal aliens and people that came into our country illegally uh from gangs, from prisons, from mental institutions."

Conversely, Democrats aimed to secure an extension of federal health insurance subsidies, a key issue that dominated the shutdown. House Democrats vowed to "continue to fight to lower the high cost of living," "address the health care crisis that Republicans have created," and "extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits for tens of millions of Americans."

3. Impact of the Shutdown

The shutdown had widespread negative consequences:

• Federal Workers: Over a million federal employees were left unpaid or out of work.
• Low-Income Americans: Food benefits for many low-income Americans were suspended.
• Airline Passengers: Thousands of flights were canceled or delayed.

President Trump stated that with the bill signed, "the federal government will now resume normal operations, and my administration and our partners in Congress will continue our work to lower the cost of living, restore public safety, grow our economy, and make America affordable again for all Americans again."

4. Democratic Regret and Ongoing Battle

Despite the end of the shutdown, many Democrats are dissatisfied. They regret that their efforts failed to secure a deal to extend federal health insurance subsidies. Professor Sher Berman, a professor of political science at Barnard College, noted that in the short term, the shutdown "didn't achieve very much in the sense that the Democrats didn't get what they said they were um uh that that they had that they engaged in this shutdown for, which is to get an extension... of those credits, subsidies for health care."

However, Berman also highlighted that the shutdown served to "show or highlight um what this budget would mean for millions and millions of Americans, particularly those who stand to suffer if those subsidies expire." She characterized the situation as a "battle that has been completed but a war that is ongoing," as the subsidies are due to expire again on January 30th.

5. Reasons for Democratic Concession

Professor Berman suggested that the Democratic "rebels" likely "caved" due to several factors:

• Pain Caused to Americans: The significant hardship inflicted on average Americans, including unpaid federal workers and those losing essential benefits like food assistance.
• Trump's Unwillingness to Budge: The perception that President Trump was unlikely to compromise, making further negotiation seem futile.

Berman pointed out that the pain was widespread across the nation, affecting constituents in both Democratic and Republican districts. While some Republicans expressed concerns, Trump's strong control over his party prevented open dissent.

6. The Future of the Health Care Subsidy Fight

The outcome of this shutdown is seen as potentially influencing the upcoming midterm elections. The impending expiration of health care subsidies in January means this issue will remain a prominent political agenda item. Professor Berman believes Democrats may benefit electorally from this, as the subsidies are popular and affect millions of Americans across various districts. She reiterated, "This is a battle. This battle is over, but this war will continue. And in particular, it will come back again at the end of January and in the midterm elections."

7. Congressional Dysfunction and the Filibuster

The current US Congress is widely described as dysfunctional and gridlocked. Professor Berman attributes this to:

• Republican Entrallment to Trump: The Republican party in Congress is largely beholden to President Trump, making him the agenda setter.
• Democratic Numerical Limitations: Democrats lack sufficient numbers in both the House and Senate, coupled with the filibuster rule, to pass legislation unilaterally.

Berman argues that this dynamic gives Trump significant power. Change, she suggests, will only occur if more Republican senators and congressmen perceive Trump's actions as a direct threat to their electoral futures.

The filibuster rule, which requires 60 votes to pass legislation instead of a simple majority, is identified as a significant impediment. Berman calls it a "bizarre feature of American legislative politics" that neither party has an incentive to eliminate, as it grants the minority party influence and empowers the Senate. She notes that senators themselves would need to agree to its removal for it to disappear.

8. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• President Trump's Perspective: The shutdown was caused by "extremists" in the Democratic party who sought to extort funds for illegal immigrants.
• Democratic Perspective: The shutdown was a necessary fight to protect public health care subsidies and address a Republican-created health care crisis.
• Professor Berman's Analysis: The shutdown highlighted the impact of policy decisions on ordinary Americans and exposed the structural issues of congressional dysfunction, including the influence of the president and the obstructive nature of the filibuster. She emphasizes that the fight over health care subsidies is ongoing and will likely resurface.

9. Conclusion and Takeaways

The 43-day government shutdown, the longest in US history, ended without Democrats achieving their primary goal of extending health care subsidies. President Trump claimed victory, blaming Democrats for the prolonged closure. However, the shutdown brought the issue of health care affordability to the forefront, potentially benefiting Democrats in future elections. The event also underscored the deep political divisions and structural challenges within the US Congress, particularly the influence of the president and the impact of the filibuster rule. The fight over health care subsidies is far from over, with its expiration date looming and midterm elections on the horizon.