After a military coup, what is next for Guinea-Bissau? | The Take

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript:

Key Concepts

• Guinea-Bissau Coup: Military takeover of Guinea-Bissau on November 26th, interrupting presidential election results.
• General Umaro Sissoco Embaló: Incumbent President of Guinea-Bissau, in power since 2020, whose presidency has been marked by political instability and alleged coup attempts.
• PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde): A historically dominant liberation party in Guinea-Bissau, whose candidate was disqualified from the recent election.
• Domingos Simões Pereira: The well-known former Prime Minister and candidate for the PAIGC.
• General Otávio Na Ta: Leader of the military junta that seized power.
• Narco-state: A term used by the UN in 2008 to describe Guinea-Bissau's risk of becoming a state heavily influenced by drug trafficking.
• Cocaine Transit Hub: Guinea-Bissau's strategic location between Latin America and Europe makes it a key transit point for cocaine.
• ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States): A regional bloc that monitored the elections and has suspended Guinea-Bissau following the coup.
• African Union (AU): Another international body that monitored the elections and has suspended Guinea-Bissau.
• Rule of Law: The principle that all people and institutions are accountable to laws that are publicly promulgated, equally enforced, and independently adjudicated.

Summary

Election Interrupted by Military Coup

On Wednesday, November 26th, Guinea-Bissau was poised to receive the results of its presidential election. However, the military intervened, taking power and disrupting the democratic process. Gunshots were reported in the capital, Bissau, with heavily armed military personnel securing the presidential palace. On national television, the "Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order" announced the immediate deposition of the president and the shutdown of all state institutions. They also declared the closure of all land, sea, and air borders and imposed a curfew. The stated reason for the intervention was the discovery of a plan to manipulate the elections, coordinated by a national leader, though details were scarce. General Otávio Na Ta was designated to lead a transitional government for 12 months.

Preceding Election Tensions

The election itself was highly contested, described as one of the most hotly debated in Guinea-Bissau's history. Incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, whose term was initially set to end in February, reversed his decision and decided to run. The opposition, represented by the historically significant PAIGC, presented its candidate, former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira. However, the electoral commission disqualified the PAIGC, citing a technicality regarding late application. This disqualification was historic, as the PAIGC was a leading force against Portuguese colonialism and had dominated Guinean politics for significant periods. The exclusion of such a prominent party heightened tensions and led to expectations of potential violence on election day. Despite these tensions, monitors from the African Union and ECOWAS reported that the vote proceeded peacefully.

Guinea-Bissau: A Brief Overview

Guinea-Bissau is a small country with a population of 2.2 million, situated between Senegal to the north and Guinea-Conakry to the south. It is a politically unstable and impoverished nation, with its primary export, cashews, insufficient to sustain its population. The country has a history of political instability, having experienced approximately nine coups since gaining independence from Portugal. This context of frequent military interventions meant that the latest coup, while dramatic, was not entirely surprising to some.

President Embaló's Tumultuous Presidency

President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who won the 2019 elections, has had a challenging presidency. His legitimacy was questioned by the PAIGC, leading to delays in his swearing-in until September 2020, despite being inaugurated in February 2020. Embaló has been described as antagonistic towards the opposition, which held a majority in parliament, leading to frequent clashes and policy gridlock. In 2022 and again in 2023, Embaló dissolved parliament, citing alleged coup attempts. This pattern has led to accusations from civil society and opposition members that he uses these alleged coup attempts to consolidate power and rule by decree, which he has been doing since 2023. The recent military takeover has reignited these allegations, with some suggesting Embaló may have orchestrated it himself.

Public Sentiment and Reactions to the Coup

Despite the political turmoil, the election saw over 65% participation. On election day, there was a sense of high spirits, with significant youth support for the PAIGC-aligned candidate. However, the military intervention led to widespread disappointment. The UN condemned the coup, with the Secretary-General urging restraint and respect for the rule of law. The deposed President Embaló is in exile in Congo-Brazzaville, calling the coup an attempt to fabricate his removal. The other major candidate, Domingos Simões Pereira, also denounced the coup as a sham, stating he had polling station reports confirming his victory and questioning how he could orchestrate a coup if he was the winner.

The Narco-State Dimension

A significant factor contributing to Guinea-Bissau's instability is its role as a major transit hub for cocaine trafficking between Latin America and Europe. In 2008, the UN labeled the country as at risk of becoming a narco-state. The country's coastline and islands provide natural hidden drop-off points for drug cartels. The military has even cited drug trafficking and corruption as partial justifications for their intervention. Reports indicate strong insider support from high-ranking military officials for drug cartels, with some facing prosecution in the US. A report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GITOC) warned that electing Embaló could potentially increase, not decrease, the drug trade due to his alleged links to individuals within the military who have past connections to drug trafficking. The profits from cocaine are reportedly larger than the country's GDP, making it highly vulnerable to these illicit operations.

Regional Context and Unique Circumstances

The coup in Guinea-Bissau occurs amidst a wave of military takeovers in the Sahel and West Africa over the past five years, including in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. These coups were often justified by the military as necessary to address insecurity and combat jihadist groups, where civilian governments were perceived as failing. However, the Guinea-Bissau coup appears to be distinct. Unlike the Sahelian countries, Guinea-Bissau is not currently facing a major local insurgency. Furthermore, the military intervention directly followed an election, suggesting a political motive tied to the electoral process rather than a response to an existential security threat. Public reaction on social media indicated deep disappointment and a sense of being taken backward, contrasting with the jubilation seen in some other West African countries following military takeovers.

Impact on Ordinary Citizens

The political instability and coups disproportionately affect the ordinary citizens of Guinea-Bissau, one of the poorest countries globally. The fragile democracy has not yielded significant benefits for its people. The recent coup has led to Guinea-Bissau's suspension from ECOWAS and the African Union, which will likely hinder its ability to trade and export within the region. This, coupled with existing economic challenges like inflation and the grain crisis following the invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests a worsening economic situation for the population, with potential for further inflation due to sanctions. The coup is seen as not only stealing the right to elect leaders but also impacting the economic well-being of the citizens.