Acting president, army, USA... Who holds power in Venezuela? • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Interim Leadership: Deli Rodriguez as the current, nominally in-charge leader of Venezuela.
• Ruling Elite: The intact inner circle of Nicholas Maduro, comprised of both civilian and military figures, stemming from the Hugo Chavez era.
• US Intervention: Donald Trump’s assertive approach to Venezuela, focusing on oil access and exerting pressure on the ruling elite.
• Differing US Narratives: Contrasting viewpoints within the Trump administration – Trump’s direct control insistence versus Marco Rubio’s leverage-based approach.
• Oil Industry Decline: The catastrophic state of Venezuela’s oil production due to mismanagement, underinvestment, and US sanctions.
• International Law Concerns: The violation of international law and Venezuelan sovereignty due to unilateral US military action.
• Precedent Setting: The potential for the US action to encourage similar interventions by other nations (China, Russia).

Venezuela: A Shift in Power and US Intervention – An Analysis

The Current Situation & Power Dynamics

Following the capture of Nicholas Maduro, Deli Rodriguez has assumed the role of interim leader in Venezuela. Initially defiant, Rodriguez has since signaled a willingness to collaborate with Washington and Caracas. Crucially, she has received backing from Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Venezuela’s Defense Minister, highlighting the importance of military support within the country. However, the core of Maduro’s regime – the inner circle established by Hugo Chavez – remains largely intact. This group, evenly split between civilian and military figures, continues to wield significant power. Over the past two decades, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela has consolidated control over key institutions including the National Assembly, the judiciary, the electoral council, and the military. Therefore, removing Maduro alone does not dismantle the established power structure.

US Pressure and Conflicting Strategies

Donald Trump is actively applying substantial pressure on Venezuela’s ruling elite to align with US interests. His comments to The Atlantic magazine, warning Rodriguez of “a very heavy price” if she doesn’t comply, exemplify this approach. Within the Trump administration, however, differing narratives exist regarding the US role. Trump advocates for direct US control, while Marco Rubio proposes a more nuanced strategy utilizing leverage, such as oil blockades. Regardless, the US is demonstrably attempting to coerce the current power structure into submission, with the ruling elite questioning their own potential fate given Maduro’s detention.

The Oil Factor & Economic Realities

Trump’s primary motivation is access to Venezuela’s oil reserves, with plans for US oil companies to invest heavily in rebuilding the oil infrastructure. However, Venezuela’s oil industry is in a “catastrophic state” due to decades of mismanagement and underinvestment. Crude oil production has plummeted from a higher level to approximately 900,000 barrels per day in 2023, a decline exacerbated by US sanctions. Currently, Chevron is the only US oil company operating in Venezuela, benefiting from a sanctions exemption. Significant investment is unlikely without political and institutional stability. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips previously operated in Venezuela but withdrew in 2007 after Hugo Chavez demanded majority ownership of their projects, subsequently suing the Venezuelan government. Trump’s focus on oil, rather than democracy or human rights, is expected to generate significant resentment within Venezuela.

International Repercussions & Legal Concerns

The US actions in Venezuela have drawn criticism internationally, raising concerns about a dangerous precedent. The intervention is seen as a blow to the “rules-based international order” and appears to violate the UN Charter and Venezuelan sovereignty. A joint statement issued by Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay, and Spain condemned the unilateral US military actions as contravening fundamental principles of international law. While the operation resulted in no US casualties, dozens of Venezuelan lives were lost.

Potential for Escalation & Precedent Setting

Senator Mark Warner, Democratic vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, warned that the US intervention could embolden other nations to take similar actions. He specifically questioned what would prevent China from claiming authority over Taiwan’s leadership or Vladimir Putin from using a similar justification to remove Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump’s demonstrated willingness to disregard laws he deems unfavorable raises fears about the potential ripple effects of his actions and the possibility of authoritarian leaders exploiting the precedent set by the Venezuela intervention. As Warner stated, “What’s to stop…China claiming the same authority over Taiwan’s leadership or…watch to stop Vladimir Putin using a similar justification to snatch Ukraine’s president Vladimir Zalinski?”

Conclusion

The situation in Venezuela represents a complex interplay of internal power struggles, US intervention, and international legal concerns. While Maduro’s capture marks a shift, the underlying power structure remains intact. The US, driven by oil interests, is employing coercive tactics, but faces challenges in rebuilding Venezuela’s devastated oil industry and navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. The intervention raises serious questions about international law and the potential for escalating conflicts, setting a potentially dangerous precedent for other nations.