A lot more M&A will come with less volatility, more practicality, says Paul Weiss' Robert Kindler

Key Concepts:

• M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions)
• Volatility in the market
• Antitrust regulations and enforcement
• Populism and its influence on antitrust
• Consent decrees
• Pragmatic approach to antitrust
• Impact of political climate on deal-making

M&A Market Dynamics and Volatility:

• Early in the year, M&A activity was hindered by market volatility, making it difficult to agree on deal terms.
• Wild swings in the S&P created uncertainty, impeding M&A transactions.
• With market stabilization, a more conducive environment for M&A is emerging.

Antitrust Perspectives and the Political Climate:

• The previous administration had a stricter antitrust stance, often rejecting deals and resurrecting old theories.
• The current administration is perceived as more pragmatic in its approach to antitrust.
• The first Trump administration's approval of the T-Mobile/Sprint deal, based on the benefit of a third competitor, is cited as an example of a practical view.
• The current administration is willing to negotiate and use consent decrees to address concerns and facilitate deals.
• The blocked US Steel deal under the previous administration is mentioned as an example of political influence on antitrust decisions.

Examples and Case Studies:

• T-Mobile/Sprint: Approved by the first Trump administration, highlighting a pragmatic view that prioritized consumer benefits through increased competition.
• Hewlett Packard/Juniper: Approved by the current administration with some divestitures, demonstrating a willingness to negotiate solutions.
• US Steel Deal: Blocked by the previous administration, illustrating the impact of political considerations on antitrust decisions.

Pragmatic Populism and Antitrust:

• The current administration is described as "pragmatic populist," aiming to protect consumers without being overly restrictive.
• While acknowledging the populist sentiment against large corporations, the administration is taking a more practical approach to antitrust enforcement.

The Evolving Role of Lawyers in M&A:

• The initial focus in M&A has shifted from bankers to lawyers due to the complexity of antitrust regulations.
• The primary question is now whether a deal can be approved by regulators, not just in the US but also in Europe.
• Antitrust reviews are still expected, and deals will be closely scrutinized.

Conclusion:

The M&A market is poised for increased activity due to reduced volatility and a more pragmatic approach to antitrust under the current administration. While antitrust scrutiny remains, the willingness to negotiate and find solutions is creating a more favorable environment for deal-making. The role of lawyers in assessing regulatory feasibility has become paramount in the M&A process.