A look at Myanmar's upcoming general election

Key Concepts

• Junta: The military government currently ruling Myanmar.
• USDP (Union Solidarity Development Party): The military-backed political party.
• Five-Point Consensus: ASEAN’s plan for resolving the Myanmar crisis, largely ignored by the Junta.
• Staggered Elections: The phased approach to holding elections across Myanmar due to ongoing instability.
• Legitimacy Crisis: The widespread doubt surrounding the validity and fairness of the elections.
• Boycott/Refusal of Complicity: Calls for non-participation in the elections as a form of protest.

Myanmar’s Upcoming Elections: A Detailed Overview

The Myanmar military has announced a three-phase election schedule, commencing on December 28th, with subsequent rounds on January 11th and January 25th. These elections are occurring five years after the military ousted the democratically elected government, an event that triggered a civil war. While the military presents these polls as a return to democracy, they are widely viewed with skepticism and face significant international criticism.

Election Logistics and Scope

The election process is being implemented in three phases across 274 of Myanmar’s 330 townships deemed “safe enough” for voting. This represents a significant reduction in electoral coverage compared to previous polls, marking the first time such a large number of townships have been excluded and the first time elections are being rolled out in phases. Specifically, 102 townships will vote in phase one, 100 in phase two, and the remaining townships in phase three. The exclusion of townships is attributed to ongoing conflict and violence.

Political Landscape and Changes

The number of participating political parties has drastically decreased. In the 2020 elections, nearly 100 parties were registered; this time, only around 60 parties are participating, with just six contesting nationwide. The remaining parties will focus on specific states or regions. This reduction is directly linked to the military’s rewriting of electoral laws, designed to weaken opposition parties. New regulations require parties to demonstrate a minimum number of members, officers, and funds across the entire country to qualify for national-level participation. Furthermore, alterations to the voting system are perceived as potentially favoring the military-backed USDP.

Concerns Regarding Fairness and Legitimacy

A central concern revolves around the legitimacy of the elections. Critics argue that even minimal participation will be exploited by the Junta to claim a mandate. As stated by a commentator, “Even if only one person were to cast a ballot, the Honda would shamelessly use it as a claim to legitimacy.” This sentiment fuels calls for a boycott and a “refusal of complicity” in the military’s attempt to solidify its power. The focus isn’t solely on boycotts, but on actively rejecting participation in what is seen as a staged performance.

International Response and Observation

ASEAN has urged the military to ensure the elections are free, fair, and inclusive. However, due to concerns about legitimizing the vote, ASEAN will not be sending an official observer mission. Individual member states, such as Cambodia and Thailand, may send observers on a bilateral basis. Other countries, including China, India, and Russia, have announced plans to send observers. Despite these efforts, overall international confidence in the elections remains low. The presence of observers is considered crucial, not only for the election process itself but also for Myanmar’s international standing.

The Five-Point Consensus and the Junta’s Position

ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus, intended to resolve the Myanmar crisis, has been largely disregarded by the Junta. The military insists that holding elections is the appropriate path forward, a view not shared by the international community. A key argument presented is that “Elections might be part of the problem instead of being part of the solution.”

Expected Outcome and Future Implications

Despite criticisms, the Junta is widely expected to win the elections, given the current political landscape and the limitations placed on opposition parties. The military leaders will remain barred from ASEAN summits and foreign ministers meetings, and Myanmar’s assumption of the ASEAN chairmanship remains suspended until the bloc reassesses the situation. The current setup, with the limited number of parties and the absence of previous opposition forces, is described as “quite valid…foolproof” in ensuring a favorable outcome for the regime.

Technical Terms

• Township: An administrative division in Myanmar, similar to a county.
• ASEAN: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a regional intergovernmental organization.
• Bilateral Basis: Referring to agreements or actions taken between two countries individually, rather than through a larger organization.

Synthesis

The upcoming elections in Myanmar are deeply flawed and lack legitimacy due to the military’s manipulation of the electoral process, the exclusion of significant portions of the population, and the suppression of opposition parties. While the Junta aims to use the elections to solidify its power and gain international recognition, the international community largely views them as a sham. The future of Myanmar remains uncertain, with ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus stalled and the country facing ongoing conflict and political instability. The elections are unlikely to resolve the crisis and may, in fact, exacerbate it.