A former CIA director on whether Russians are losing faith in Vladimir Putin

Key Concepts

• FSB (Federal Security Service): Russia’s principal security agency, which led the pre-invasion planning for Ukraine, signaling that the Kremlin viewed the conflict as a domestic rather than international issue.
• Strategic Fixation: Vladimir Putin’s long-held belief that Russia cannot be a "great power" without controlling Ukraine’s political choices.
• Intelligence Granularity: The high-precision data collected by the CIA regarding both military and political planning, including the identification of "tame" Ukrainian officials intended for puppet roles.
• Attrition Warfare: The current state of the conflict characterized by high Russian casualty rates exceeding recruitment/mobilization capacity.
• Economic Mortgaging: The long-term degradation of the Russian economy due to the sustained war effort and reliance on temporary lifelines from allies like Iran.

---

1. The November 2021 Moscow Mission

CIA Director William Burns recounts his November 2021 trip to Moscow, where he presented intelligence regarding Russia’s imminent invasion plans.

• The Mood: Burns describes the atmosphere as "troubling." He noted that the FSB was actively selecting puppet officials to install in Ukraine, confirming that the Kremlin viewed the invasion as a domestic security operation.
• Putin’s Mindset: Putin displayed no denial or surprise at the intelligence. His attitude was one of "unapologetic" defiance, essentially asking, "So, what are you going to do about it?"
• Flawed Assumptions: Putin believed he had a tactical window of opportunity due to:
  • U.S. recovery from COVID-19 and the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
  • A perceived weakness in European leadership.
  • A belief that the modernized Russian military would easily overwhelm Ukraine.
  • A fundamental ideological rejection of Ukraine as a "real country."

2. The Role of Intelligence and Resistance

• CIA-Ukraine Cooperation: The CIA had been working closely with Ukrainian security services since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. This partnership provided the agency with the confidence that Ukraine would resist tenaciously, despite Russia’s perceived military superiority.
• The Warning: During the 2021 meetings, Burns explicitly warned Putin and his inner circle that the Ukrainians would fight back and would receive full support from the United States.

3. Current State of the Conflict (Present Day)

The conflict has reached a significant inflection point characterized by:

• Casualty Rates: Russian monthly casualties now exceed the number of new recruits and mobilized soldiers.
• Battlefield Dynamics: Russian gains have slowed significantly, with some areas being reversed.
• Deep Strikes: Ukrainian forces are successfully targeting the Russian energy industry, causing heavy damage.
• External Dependencies: Russia has received a "temporary lifeline" from Iran, which has boosted energy revenues and depleted Western military inventories (specifically air defense interceptors).

4. Internal Pressures in Russia

• Elite Sentiment: There is growing evidence of shifting moods within the Russian elite. Reports suggest discussions regarding a "post-Putin future" and a growing perception that the conflict is "Putin’s war" rather than a national necessity.
• Repression: Despite these pressures, Putin maintains a firm grip on society through the effective use of state repression and the silencing of dissent.
• The "Cocky" Factor: A year ago, Putin felt time was on his side. Currently, that confidence is waning as the Russian elite begins to realize that battlefield breakthroughs are unlikely.

5. Strategic Outlook and Conclusion

• Negotiation Strategy: Burns argues that Putin is an "un-sentimental" actor. Consequently, the only way to force him to negotiate seriously is to maintain sustained pressure through economic sanctions and continued military support for Ukraine.
• Synthesis: The war has evolved from a perceived "easy win" for Russia into a long-term drain on its economy and military. While Putin’s domestic control remains intact, the combination of high attrition, economic strain, and the lack of a clear path to victory is creating the necessary conditions to eventually force a more serious diplomatic engagement.