A deal with the US is 'important for South Korea's economy and regional security' • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• US-South Korea Trade Agreement
• US-South Korea Security Relationship
• North Korea's Nuclear Program
• US-China Relations
• US-Japan Relations
• Rare Earth Minerals
• Sanctions on Russian Energy Firms
• China's Support for Russia

US-South Korea Trade Agreement and Security

Henrietta Levan, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discusses the recent trade agreement announced between the US and South Korea. While details are scarce, Levan notes that progress has been made, which is crucial for South Korea's economy and its security. The US alliance is vital for South Korea's regional standing and its defense against North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Levan emphasizes the importance of the US strengthening ties with its allies before engaging with adversaries like China.

Impact of ICE Raid on US-South Korea Relations

Levan highlights the negative impact of an ICE raid that led to the deportation of South Korean nationals working to boost American manufacturing. This action, seen as humiliating, has damaged US standing in South Korea and was perceived as an insult, especially given that these workers were fulfilling a request from President Trump. Despite this setback, South Korea needs a strong relationship with the US and will likely continue to pursue progress on the trade deal.

Shifting Dynamics with North Korea

The geopolitical landscape concerning North Korea has changed significantly. Unlike Trump's first term, where he engaged directly with Kim Jong-un with limited tangible results, Kim Jong-un has now formed alliances with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. This is evident in Kim Jong-un's increased confidence, exemplified by his participation in China's military parade. Levan points out that Russia's actions have emboldened Kim Jong-un, with Russia prioritizing acquiring Korean ammunition for the war in Ukraine over denuclearization. China, while still paying lip service to denuclearization, is also enabling this dynamic.

Asian States' Approach to US Alliances

Regarding Japan and South Korea's eagerness to maintain engagement with the US under President Trump, Levan explains that the US alliance is "too big to fail" for these nations, essential for their security. However, both countries are also hedging their bets by investing in partnerships with Europe and other Indo-Pacific nations. The new Japanese prime minister is seen as effective in building a relationship with Trump, similar to how former Prime Minister Abe managed Trump's first term, aiming for a more stable path in regional relations.

US-China Summit and Potential Outcomes

The upcoming high-stakes meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping is expected to focus on establishing a longer-term period of stability in US-China relations. Potential outcomes include a year-long delay in implementing China's rare earth regulations and an extension of the pause on high tariffs, effectively a trade embargo. However, Levan notes that the discussions are likely to focus on managing the fallout of the trade war rather than addressing the underlying economic imbalances that initiated it.

China's Rare Earths and Support for Russia

Levan questions whether China has found Trump's Achilles' heel by leveraging rare earth minerals. Regarding China's role in supporting Russian energy firms that have been sanctioned, Levan states that China has made a deep commitment to its relationship with Russia. It is unlikely China will limit its financial support for Russia unless faced with credible threats of US financial sanctions on Chinese institutions supporting the Russian military. Levan suggests that Trump's priority appears to be a positive and stable meeting with Xi, making significant progress on China's support for the Russian war effort unlikely.

Conclusion

The summary highlights the complex interplay of trade, security, and geopolitical alliances in East Asia. The US-South Korea trade agreement, while a step forward, is overshadowed by past diplomatic missteps. North Korea's strengthened ties with Russia and China present a new challenge. Asian allies like Japan and South Korea are navigating these dynamics by prioritizing their US alliances while diversifying their partnerships. The upcoming US-China summit aims for stability but is unlikely to resolve deep-seated economic imbalances or China's support for Russia.