$80 silver and back again... what's next in 2026? Ask the broker - LIVE!

Key Concepts

• Precious Metals & Physical Purchasing: Focus on the practicalities of buying, selling, and accounting for precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, junk silver).
• Junk Silver: Pre-1965 US coins containing 90% silver, valued for fractional ownership and potential price swings.
• Spot Price & Dealer Premiums: Understanding the difference between the current market price (spot) and the price charged by dealers, including volatility and factors influencing premiums.
• Silver to Platinum/Gold Ratios: Analyzing these ratios as potential trading opportunities.
• AI-Generated Misinformation: Identifying and debunking false or misleading information circulating online, particularly regarding precious metals markets.
• Constitutional Dollar vs. Petro Dollar: The historical basis of the US dollar in silver versus the current reliance on the petro dollar.
• State Acceptance of Precious Metals: The growing trend of states recognizing precious metals as legal tender and the implications for federal tax law.
• Margin Requirements & Market Manipulation: Discussion of CME margin increases and potential for market suppression.

Precious Metals Market Update & Practical Considerations (December 29, 2025)

Kaiser Johnson of Liberty and Finance hosted an “Ask the Broker Live” session, addressing questions related to precious metals trading and investment. The discussion covered market dynamics, practical purchasing advice, and concerns about misinformation.

1. Market Volatility & Spot Pricing

The session began with a review of recent market activity. Spot price for silver was reported at $72.43 (as of the broadcast), fluctuating significantly in recent days. A recent run-up saw prices reach $81-$82 before correcting. Dealers operate with their own spot price calculations; Liberty and Finance currently uses $72.43, updating every 5-10 seconds. The speaker emphasized the importance of checking Liberty and Finance’s website (myfranklin.com) for current pricing.

2. Junk Silver Market Dynamics

The junk silver market is showing signs of returning to normalcy after a period of significant price swings. Wholesale costs for junk silver have risen rapidly in the last few days, even amidst spot price fluctuations. This makes finding favorable pricing more challenging. The speaker advised contacting Liberty and Finance for potential sourcing opportunities before prices fully normalize. Junk silver (pre-1965 US dimes, quarters, and half dollars containing 90% silver) typically trades around bullion prices, but experienced an “outsized swing” during periods of high demand, such as the March-May 2023 bank crisis, where premiums rose dramatically (from ~$1.99 over spot to $12-13 over spot). Silver Eagles also saw significant premium increases (from $4-6 over spot to $15-17 over spot). Other bullion coins (Maples, Philharmonics) experienced less dramatic swings.

3. State Acceptance & Tax Implications

A question was raised regarding capital gains accounting for everyday use of precious metals as currency. The speaker acknowledged this is a complex issue, best addressed by a tax attorney. Currently, widespread use of precious metals for transactions is limited. The US Constitution defines the dollar’s value in terms of silver grains, but the current system operates on the petro dollar. As more states accept precious metals as legal tender, the federal government will need to address the tax implications, particularly regarding capital gains. The speaker anticipates this will become a more pressing issue as state adoption increases.

4. Silver-Platinum Ratio & Swapping

The silver-to-platinum ratio was discussed, currently around 30:1 (silver at $73, platinum at $21). Historically, platinum has traded at 150-300% of gold’s price. The current ratio presents a potential swapping opportunity. Liberty and Finance facilitates swaps: clients receive a quote for their silver, a quote for the desired platinum product, and a prepaid FedEx label for shipping. This process is streamlined with prepaid labels, eliminating the need for registered mail.

5. JP Morgan & Silver Short Positions

Referencing previous market updates (specifically December 15th), the speaker confirmed reports (citing the Economic Times, as mentioned by Andy Schectman) that JP Morgan has moved from a short position to a long position in silver, having accumulated approximately 750 million ounces in 2008 after inheriting Bear Stearn’s position.

6. AI-Generated Misinformation & Due Diligence

A significant portion of the session addressed the proliferation of AI-generated videos spreading misinformation about precious metals. Specifically, videos featuring an AI character called “the Asian guy” are circulating widely, containing unsubstantiated claims and potentially manipulative information. The speaker urged viewers to rely on trusted sources (like Liberty and Finance’s guests) and to verify information independently, referencing a blog post by David Morgan on LinkedIn offering guidance on auditing these videos. He cautioned against blindly trusting information promoted by the YouTube algorithm. Examples included false claims about COMX rules and fabricated statements attributed to Warren Buffett.

7. Treasury Concerns & Market Suppression

The speaker briefly touched on concerns regarding US Treasuries, deferring to expert guests for detailed analysis. He also noted that the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is raising margin requirements, a tactic often used to curb speculative trading and potentially suppress spot prices. He acknowledged this could be interpreted as market manipulation.

8. Future Outlook & Buying Strategy

Despite recent corrections, the speaker remains bullish on silver, believing it has significant upside potential. He shared his personal strategy of buying junk silver and swapping into higher-ounce denominations, capitalizing on historical price discrepancies. He also mentioned favorable premiums on numismatic (pre-1933) gold, recommending clients consider taking advantage of those opportunities.

Notable Quotes:

• “Don't guess what'll happen, don't want it to happen, just see what happens.” – Kaiser Johnson, emphasizing the importance of observing market behavior rather than predicting it.
• “You’ve got to really do your homework, vet that, and then seek out your information from channels from their official sources.” – Kaiser Johnson, stressing the need for critical evaluation of information sources.

Technical Terms:

• Spot Price: The current market price for immediate delivery of a commodity.
• Bullion: Precious metals in the form of bars or coins, valued for their metal content.
• Junk Silver: Pre-1965 US coins containing 90% silver.
• Numismatics: The study or collection of coins and currency.
• Petro Dollar: A currency backed by oil, as opposed to a currency backed by a physical commodity like silver.
• Margin Requirements: The amount of money investors must deposit with a broker to cover potential losses.
• COMX: The COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, a major trading platform for precious metals.

Conclusion:

The session provided a practical overview of the current precious metals market, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making, due diligence, and caution regarding misinformation. The speaker highlighted opportunities in junk silver, silver-platinum swaps, and numismatic gold, while acknowledging market volatility and potential manipulation. The overarching message was to rely on trusted sources, verify information independently, and develop a well-considered investment strategy based on individual circumstances.