6 under-the-radar trends (+ our business ideas)

Key Concepts

• Trends: Identifying and capitalizing on emerging market opportunities.
• Short Drama Apps: Mobile platforms featuring very short, serialized dramas.
• Rucking: Walking with a weighted vest or backpack for increased fitness.
• Plastic-Free Everything: The movement to eliminate plastic from consumer products and lifestyles.
• Nervous System Work: Practices and products aimed at regulating the parasympathetic and sympathetic nervous systems.
• Biohacking Plants: Using AI and genetic engineering to improve crop traits.
• AI Social Network: Social media platforms where content is generated or curated by artificial intelligence.
• AI Music: Music created or assisted by artificial intelligence.
• NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens): Unique digital assets used to represent ownership of digital items.

1. Short Drama Apps

• Main Point: Short drama apps, inspired by the failed Quibi, are thriving in China and gaining traction in the US.
• Details:
  • Quibi raised $1.75 billion but failed due to its subscription model and focus on high-quality content.
  • Successful short drama apps offer free access, monetizing through in-app purchases to unlock more episodes.
  • Top apps generate significant revenue: $150M, $160M, $275M, and $350M annually.
  • Content is often trashy, soap opera-style dramas with episodes lasting 60-90 seconds.
• Examples: Drama Box, Real Short.
• Opportunity: An American company could potentially dominate this market with better content or a different monetization strategy.
• Quote: "Jeffrey katberg did wrong was he tried to give people what they should want rather than what they do want."

2. Fitness Trend: Rucking

• Main Point: Rucking, or walking with a weighted vest or backpack, is an accessible and effective fitness trend.
• Details:
  • Rucking supercharges walking, burning approximately 200 more calories per hour compared to regular walking.
  • It's a low-intensity, steady-state cardio exercise beneficial for fat loss.
  • Brands like GoRuck have capitalized on this trend, generating over $50 million in annual revenue.
  • GoRuck's products are positioned as high-quality and premium, with backpacks costing around $450.
• Opportunity: A lower-cost, "good enough" rucking brand could capture a larger market share.
• Example: Echelon, a lower-priced alternative to Peloton, demonstrates the potential for success with a more accessible price point.
• Technical Term: Low-intensity steady state cardio (LISS).

3. Plastic-Free Everything

• Main Point: Growing consumer awareness of microplastics is driving demand for plastic-free products across various categories.
• Details:
  • The trend extends beyond food storage to clothing, cookware, and baby products.
  • Miles Snider's tweet criticizing plastic-based workout gear from Lululemon and Vuori highlights the shift towards natural materials like cotton.
  • The Honest Company's success with natural baby products demonstrates the market potential for plastic-free alternatives.
• Opportunity: A major brand focused on plastic-free baby products could gain significant traction.
• Example: Rucker Clothing offers all-cotton workout gear, catering to the demand for natural materials.
• Argument: The concept of recycling is questioned, suggesting it's a "scop" (scam) perpetuated by plastic manufacturers to shift responsibility to consumers.
• Quote: "Recycling is 100% [ __ ] it should be Reduce Reuse get rid of the recycle."

4. Nervous System Work

• Main Point: Practices and products aimed at regulating the nervous system are gaining popularity as people seek ways to manage stress and improve overall well-being.
• Details:
  • The nervous system has two main modes: sympathetic (fight or flight) and parasympathetic (rest and digest).
  • Chronic stress keeps people in the sympathetic mode, hindering digestion, recovery, and decision-making.
  • Methods for calming the nervous system include exercise, sauna, cold plunge, breath work, and meditation.
• Examples:
  • Hampton's nervous system reset retreats.
  • Jack Smith's experience with a room with screens, which he believed had a positive effect on his nervous system.
• Technical Terms: Parasympathetic nervous system, sympathetic nervous system, Vegas nerve.
• Argument: While some methods may seem unconventional or pseudoscientific (e.g., grounding), the underlying trend of seeking nervous system regulation is significant.

5. Biohacking Plants

• Main Point: Combining AI and biohacking to improve crop traits offers a promising avenue for innovation in agriculture.
• Details:
  • AI, particularly advancements like AlphaFold, is revolutionizing protein folding prediction, enabling the development of new drugs and therapeutics.
  • Biohacking in humans is complex and faces regulatory hurdles.
  • Plants offer a more accessible and ethical target for biohacking.
• Example: David Friedberg's AOL (Accelerating Evolution) aims to enhance crop traits like yield, pest resistance, and climate adaptability.
• Mission: Accelerating Evolution to unlock Nature's potential.
• Argument: Biohacking plants is a more impactful and meaningful pursuit compared to working on creator economy software.

6. AI Social Network

• Main Point: The next major social network will likely leverage AI to generate or curate content, transforming how people connect and consume information.
• Details:
  • Previous social network innovations (Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok) capitalized on new technologies like smartphones and mobile internet.
  • TikTok's "For You" page, driven by AI, revolutionized content discovery by serving users personalized content without requiring them to manually follow accounts.
  • Lil Miquela, a virtual AI influencer, earns significant income, demonstrating the potential for AI-generated personalities.
• Example: Golden Age Hip Hop, a YouTube channel featuring AI-generated mashups, attracts millions of views.
• Future Prediction: A music platform that uses AI to generate personalized music based on user preferences, allowing users to mint and share their creations as NFTs.
• Argument: The integration of AI and NFTs could empower non-musicians to create and monetize music, disrupting the traditional music industry.
• Quote: "These are all trends that today Sound small sound weird but I think in the future are going to be bigger and knowing that is good for two reasons either a you're the type of person who just likes to be in the know you like to know things before you maybe like to try products early on before they become cool um I I I like to do that that that's that's one reason do you want to know these and the other reason is jumping on Trends early is the way to make a lot of money right there there is riches in these niches if you actually like go go pursue them and or you're just going to be the guy that always waits for something to be proven out and then you're going to feel like you're too late every time right so like that's those are your options as an entrepreneur and so I think being early to Trends is um trends that are going to last or be big is is a great way to get rich."

Synthesis/Conclusion

The speaker identifies five key trends with significant potential for growth and innovation: short drama apps, rucking, plastic-free everything, nervous system work, biohacking plants, and AI social networks. He argues that understanding and capitalizing on these trends early can lead to substantial financial success. The discussion emphasizes the importance of identifying market pull, providing accessible solutions, and embracing emerging technologies like AI to create innovative products and services. The speaker encourages listeners to explore these trends and consider how they can be leveraged to build successful businesses.