$5,000 Gold Hits In 2026; 'This Is Just The Beginning' | Keyvan Salehi

Key Concepts

• Gold Price Outlook: Strong bullish outlook, with predictions reaching $5,000 - $6,000 per ounce in the near future (2026-2028).
• Bull Market Differentiation: Analysis of why the current gold bull market differs from previous cycles (1980, 2011, 2020).
• Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Drivers: Geopolitical risk, inflation, and unsustainable global debt levels are key drivers for gold’s price increase.
• Market Rotation: Anticipation of a rotation of capital from broader markets (tech, AI) into gold and gold equities.
• Supply-Demand Imbalance: Limited gold supply due to long lead times for mine development, coupled with increasing demand from central banks, China, and individual investors.
• Junior Mining Company Valuation: Discussion of the undervaluation of junior mining companies despite rising gold prices and the challenges of identifying legitimate projects.
• Stellar Gold (TSX: Stellar): Overview of Stellar Gold’s projects (Tower Gold, Hollinger) in Ontario and Northwest Territories, Canada, and their development strategy.
• Capital Allocation: The importance of strategic capital allocation for mining companies, particularly in a volatile market.

Gold Market Analysis & Future Outlook

The interview centers on a highly optimistic outlook for gold, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Kavon Selei, CEO of Stellar Gold, expresses surprise not at the recent price surge to $4,200, but rather at the fact it hasn’t gone higher, stating he and others have been “calling for gold 5000.” He believes investors will see $5,000 gold before the end of next year. The primary drivers cited are “geopolitical risk, inflation, and most important of all, rising debt levels, not just in the US, but also global debt system.” He asserts gold is “the only and the best hedge against all those risks.” This perspective is supported by JP Morgan’s recent upgrade of their gold price forecast to $5,000 - $5,500 by Q4 2026, with one analyst predicting $6,000 by 2028. This analyst attributes the bullish outlook to a combination of Fed rate cuts, stagflation anxiety, concerns about Fed independence, and broader dollar debasement.

Differentiating This Bull Market from Past Cycles

A significant portion of the discussion addresses the question of whether this bull market is different from previous ones. Historically, gold has experienced peaks (1980, 2011, 2020) followed by prolonged periods of stagnation or correction (10-20 years). Selei acknowledges this pattern but argues that the current environment is unique. He highlights the unprecedented bull run in broader markets (tech, NASDAQ, S&P 500) over the past decade, fueled by low interest rates and rapid recovery from economic downturns. He believes this cycle is nearing its end, particularly with the current reliance on AI hype, and that a correction in broader markets will act as a catalyst for a significant rotation of capital into gold. He states, “This is something that gets discussed…it just cannot continue.”

The Role of Debt and Fiat Currency Devaluation

Selei emphasizes the unsustainable nature of global debt, currently exceeding $300 trillion, with the US alone holding $38 trillion (approximately 10% of the global total). He believes this situation is already “unsustainable now” and that gold serves as a crucial hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies. He notes that in regions with historically volatile currencies (Turkey, India), gold is already widely used as a store of value and a hedge against economic instability. This demand is expected to increase globally as concerns about debt and currency devaluation grow.

Mining Sector & Stellar Gold’s Position

The interview highlights the lag in the mining sector’s response to the rising gold price. Selei attributes this to the long lead times required for mine development (15-20 years from discovery to production) and the decade-long bear market in gold and gold miners. He believes this supply constraint will further exacerbate the price increase.

Stellar Gold (TSX: Stellar) is positioned to benefit from this environment. The company holds approximately 17 million ounces of gold in the ground across two projects in Canada: Tower Gold and Hollinger in Ontario, and a project in the Northwest Territories. Selei emphasizes the value proposition of Stellar Gold, noting that replicating their asset portfolio would require 10 years and over $2 billion in investment. The company is currently focused on advancing its Timmins portfolio (Tower Gold and Hollinger) towards feasibility studies and permitting, with drilling commencing in January. They are also exploring strategies to monetize non-core assets to fund development.

Challenges in the Junior Mining Sector & Investor Education

Selei acknowledges the challenges facing investors in the junior mining sector, particularly the proliferation of companies with questionable projects. He calls for increased regulatory oversight to address the issue of shell companies falsely presenting themselves as mining companies. He stresses the importance of education, promotion, marketing, and branding within the industry to raise awareness about legitimate mining projects and their potential. He notes that long-term price projections from major Canadian banks are consistently 20-40% below the spot price, creating a disconnect for investors.

Capital Allocation & Market Dynamics

The discussion underscores the importance of capital allocation in the current market. Selei explains that Stellar Gold’s strategy is contingent on its ability to raise capital and allocate it prudently. With gold at $4,200, the company is prioritizing the advancement of its Timmins projects, with potential for further development in the Northwest Territories if market conditions improve and additional capital becomes available. He reiterates his belief that gold and gold equities are currently undervalued and poised for a significant rerating. He concludes by stating that if forced to choose between betting on gold or the broader market, he would unequivocally bet on gold, citing the enduring fundamental reasons for its price appreciation.

Notable Quotes

• Kavon Selei: “I’m not surprised at all with [the gold price increase]. It’s a move that’s been a long time coming.”
• Kavon Selei: “Gold is the only and the best hedge against [geopolitical risk, inflation, and rising debt levels].”
• Kavon Selei: “This is something that gets discussed…it just cannot continue [the bull run in broader markets].”
• Analyst (JP Morgan): “It’s not a de-dollarization story, it’s a debasement story.”
• Kavon Selei: “If I were to bet on one correct thing and the other one between two assets, gold and the broader market, I would be betting on gold here.”

Technical Terms

• FID (Final Investment Decision): The point at which a company commits capital to begin construction of a mining project.
• PFS (Pre-Feasibility Study): A detailed engineering and economic study that assesses the viability of a mining project.
• TSX/TSXV: Toronto Stock Exchange and Toronto Stock Venture Exchange, major stock exchanges in Canada.
• Bull Market: A period of sustained price increases in a financial market.
• Bear Market: A period of sustained price declines in a financial market.
• Stagflation: A situation characterized by slow economic growth and high inflation.
• Debasement: The reduction in the intrinsic value of money.
• First Nations: Indigenous peoples of Canada.

Conclusion

The interview presents a compelling case for a continued bull market in gold, driven by fundamental macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The speaker emphasizes the unique characteristics of this cycle, differentiating it from past periods of gold price stagnation. Stellar Gold is positioned to capitalize on this trend with its substantial gold resources and strategic development plans. The discussion also highlights the challenges and opportunities within the junior mining sector, emphasizing the importance of due diligence and investor education. The overall takeaway is a strong recommendation to consider gold as a crucial component of a diversified investment portfolio, particularly in the face of rising debt, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty.