4 Stocks to Buy Now‼️November 2025

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript, maintaining the original language and technical precision:

Key Concepts

• Hated Stocks: Stocks that have performed poorly and are out of favor with the market, often presenting significant upside potential.
• Game Changers/Portfolio Changers: Stocks that have delivered exceptional returns, significantly impacting an investor's portfolio.
• Value Stock: A stock that appears to be trading for less than its intrinsic or book value.
• Dividend Stock: A stock that pays out a portion of its earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends.
• Turnaround Play: A company that is undergoing a significant positive change in its business operations and financial performance after a period of decline.
• Growth Stock: A company that is expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to other stocks.
• CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate): The average annual rate of return over a specified period of time longer than one year.
• PE Ratio (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): A valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings.
• Income Statement: A financial statement that reports a company's financial performance over a specific accounting period.
• Revenue Growth: The increase in a company's sales over a period of time.
• Net Income Growth: The increase in a company's profit over a period of time.
• Gross Margin: The difference between revenue and cost of goods sold, divided by revenue.
• Operating Income: Profitability from a company's core business operations.
• Diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share): A measure of a company's profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock.
• Tax Loss Harvesting: A strategy of selling investments that have decreased in value to offset capital gains taxes.

Four Stocks to Buy Now (November 2025 Edition)

The video presents four stock picks for November 2025, emphasizing that the selection process focuses on identifying undervalued or turnaround opportunities, often within "hated" sectors or companies. The presenter highlights that many of his most successful investments were initially disliked by the market.

1. Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)

Category: Value Stock, Dividend Stock, 10 Years of Growth Potential

Key Points & Details:

• Current Sentiment: While previously a "loved" stock, it's now turning into a "hated" stock due to negative analyst sentiment. Many analysts have issued "neutral," "underweight," or "equal weight" ratings, with price target cuts from firms like JP Morgan and Raymond James.
• Analyst Ratings:
  • BFA Securities: Neutral
  • Barclays: Underweight
  • Wells Fargo: Equal Weight
  • Raymond James: Price target cut to $60 from $70.
  • JP Morgan: Price target cut to $52 from $57, maintained underweight.
  • Positive ratings from Mizuho (Outperform) and Citigroup (Buy).
• Financial Performance (Income Statement Grade B+):
  • Revenue: $97 million (up from $865 million in the previous year, though this seems to be a typo in the transcript and likely refers to a specific segment or quarter).
  • Food & Beverage Costs and Labor Expense: Both reduced as a percentage of revenue.
  • Income from Operations: $37 million (up from $33 million).
  • Net Income: Nearly $32 million (up from $29 million).
  • Diluted EPS: 66 cents (vs. 61 cents).
  • All key metrics (revenues, margins, profitability, diluted EPS) are trending positively.
• Growth Drivers:
  • North Italia: Revenue up 16% year-over-year. Expected to be a significant growth driver for the next 10 years.
  • Flowerchild: Revenue up 31% year-over-year. Potential to explode to 500-1000 locations long-term.
  • Other Concepts: Revenue up 16% year-over-year.
  • External Bakery Sales: Booming quarter, up 20% year-over-year.
• Cheesecake Factory Brand Performance: Revenue up only 1% year-over-year. This is acknowledged as a smaller growth component but serves as a stable "ATM machine" to fund growth in other concepts.
• Industry Context: The restaurant industry has been a "dumpster fire" in the current year.
  • Cheesecake Factory: Down ~2%
  • Texas Roadhouse: Down 11%
  • Starbucks: Down 12%
  • Wingstop: Down 27%
  • Chipotle: Down ~47%
  • Cava: Down ~54%
  • Sweetgreen: Down over 80%
  • CAKE's relative resilience (down only 1-2%) demonstrates its business strength compared to peers.
• Valuation Protection: Trades at a low forward P/E of 13, providing downside protection.
• Future Projections:
  • Base Case (2026-2029):
    • Revenue Growth: ~7% per year (1-3% from Cheesecake Factory brand, double-digit from Flowerchild, North Italia, and others).
    • Net Income Growth: ~9% per year (driven by higher liquor sales in North Italia and strong to-go business in Flowerchild).
    • Valuation: Commands a PE of mid-20s to 30.
    • Projected Stock Price (2029): $123 - $148.
    • CAGR: High 20s to low 30s.
  • Bear Case:
    • Revenue Growth: Flat year-over-year.
    • Net Income Growth: 5% per year.
    • Valuation: 14-19 PE.
    • CAGR: 6% to 14%. Still a "money maker."
• Investment Thesis: For every $1 invested, expect $2 to $3 out over the next five years. The company also pays dividends every three months, which can be reinvested.

2. Estee Lauder (EL)

Category: Turnaround Play, Dividend Stock, Value Stock

Key Points & Details:

• Presenter's Position: Up $42,000 on the stock (excluding dividends), a relatively new investment.
• Industry Potential: The beauty industry is highlighted as a historically strong sector for generating significant returns, with examples like E.L.F. Cosmetics and Ulta Beauty (which saw a ~100x return from $5 to $500 between 2009 and 2024).
• Brands Owned: A diverse portfolio including Clinique, MAC, La Mer, Tom Ford Beauty, The Ordinary, and others.
• Turnaround in Progress:
  • Past Revenue Growth: Consistently negative (-4% to -12%).
  • Current Revenue Growth: Flipped to +3.57% year-over-year, indicating the turnaround is actively occurring.
  • Pre-COVID Performance: Historically a strong grower (14%-18% revenue growth).
  • COVID Impact: Forced a pivot to online channels (Amazon, TikTok shops).
• Recent Financial Performance (Inning One of Turnaround):
  • Net Sales Growth: 4%
  • Gross Profit Growth: 5%
  • Gross Margin: 73.4% (up from 72.4%).
  • Operating Expenses: Down 7% year-over-year.
  • Operating Income: Swung to $169 million (from a $121 million loss).
  • Operating Income Margin: 4.9% (vs. -3.6%).
  • Net Earnings: $47 million (vs. a $156 million loss).
• Future Outlook (Inning Two of Turnaround):
  • Expect continued revenue growth and significant expansion in operating and net income due to a leaner employee base.
  • Historical Net Income: Previously reached $2-3 billion in good years.
  • Projected Net Income: Expected to return to $2-3 billion within 2-3 years, with potentially higher figures due to a more efficient structure.
• Valuation & Projections:
  • PE Multiple: A 30 PE is considered reasonable, akin to a SaaS company due to recurring purchases.
  • Market Cap Projection (2-3 years): $60 billion to $90 billion (current market cap is just over $30 billion).
  • Investment Potential: A 2-3x return expected over the next 24-36 months. The presenter believes it can be held for 5-20 years due to timeless brands.

3. Amazon (AMZN)

Category: Pure Growth Company

Key Points & Details:

• Presenter's Position: Owns stock in public, Patreon, and private portfolios.
• Core Businesses: E-commerce, AWS (Amazon Web Services), and Advertising.
• "Hated" Status & Underperformance: Despite significant business growth, Amazon has underperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the past 5 years:
  • Amazon: 53% gain
  • S&P 500: 95% gain
  • Nasdaq (Q's): 114% gain
• Reasons for Past Underperformance:
  • COVID-19 Boom: Unsustainably high growth rates during the pandemic led to inflated expectations.
  • Overvaluation: Investors were willing to pay any price for the stock, leading to future pain when growth normalized.
• Future Outperformance Expected: The next five years are predicted to see massive outperformance against indexes and many "Mag Seven" stocks.
• Key Catalysts:
  • AWS Growth Acceleration: Recent reports show a major acceleration in AWS growth, which is a key metric for Wall Street.
  • OpenAI Partnership: A multi-year strategic partnership with OpenAI, valued at $38 billion for AWS.
  • Layoffs: 14,000 corporate employees laid off, a move compared to Meta's 2023 layoffs. This is seen as a culture improvement measure, focusing on "A players" and reducing costs.
• Recent Financial Performance:
  • Revenue: $180 billion (vs. $158 billion).
  • Income Before Income Tax: $28 billion (vs. $18 billion).
  • Net Income: Over $21 billion (vs. $15 billion).
  • Diluted EPS: $1.95 (vs. $1.43).
• Grading: Received a B- grade due to high expenses (cost of sales, technology/infrastructure, and a $2.8 billion total operating expense hit).
• Future Projections:
  • Bold Case:
    • Revenue Growth: 14% (2026-2029).
    • Net Income Growth: 20%.
    • PE: 35-40.
    • CAGR: 20-24%.
    • Note: This case may be revised upwards if AWS growth continues to accelerate.
  • Base Case:
    • Revenue Growth: 12%.
    • Net Income Growth: 18%.
    • PE: 33-38.
    • CAGR: 16-20%.
    • Note: This case may also need upward revision based on AWS performance.
  • Bare Case:
    • Revenue Growth: 10% (average per year for 4 years).
    • Net Income Growth: 15% (average per year for 4 years).
    • PE: 30-35.
    • CAGR: Double-digit.
• Investment Thesis: A "must-own" stock in every portfolio due to its core businesses and expected future outperformance.

4. PayPal (PYPL)

Category: Turnaround Play, Value Stock, Dividend Stock (First Dividend Ever)

Key Points & Details:

• Current Sentiment: "Ultra level of hatred" for the stock, down 63% over the past 5 years.
• Past Performance: Revenue growth declined from 9% to 1% year-over-year.
• Turnaround Evidence:
  • Revenue growth has reversed, moving from 1% to 5%, and then over 7% in the latest quarter.
  • The stock is not yet reflecting this business model change, potentially due to tax-loss harvesting.
• Financial Performance (Income Statement Grade A):
  • Revenue: $8.4 billion (up from $7.8 billion).
  • Operating Income: $1.5 billion+ (up from $1.3 billion).
  • Income Before Income Taxes: $1.5 billion (up from $1.3 billion).
  • Net Income: $1.2 billion+ (up from just over $1 billion).
  • Diluted EPS: $1.30 (vs. $0.99).
  • An "A+" grade would have been given with faster revenue growth (double digits).
• Future Projections:
  • Bull Case:
    • Revenue Growth: 9% (average per year). Venmo revenue grew 20% in the latest quarter.
    • Net Income Growth: 11%.
    • PE: 20-25 (market multiple with above-market growth).
    • CAGR: 20% to 30%.
  • Base Case:
    • Revenue Growth: 7% (average per year, 2026-2029).
    • Net Income Growth: 9% (average per year, 2026-2029).
    • PE: 18-23 (average or below average PE with above-average growth).
    • CAGR: ~20%.
  • Bare Case:
    • Revenue Growth: 3%.
    • Net Income Growth: 5%.
    • PE: 14-17.
    • CAGR: Still a "money maker."
• Investment Thesis: A compelling buy due to the clear turnaround in business fundamentals and attractive projected returns, even in the bare case.

Conclusion: Math Matters

The presenter strongly emphasizes that "math matters" in stock investing. He argues against relying solely on hopes and dreams, especially after a prolonged bull market. Investors must:

1. Run the Math: Conduct thorough projections and analysis, focusing on valuation and expected future returns (CAGR).
2. Avoid Hype: Don't pay crazy valuations based on speculation.
3. Maximize Returns: By understanding the math, investors can identify opportunities that offer significantly better returns (e.g., 15-20% CAGR vs. 5% CAGR), which directly impacts their lifestyle, retirement, and financial goals.

The presenter also mentions the upcoming closure of his private stock group to new members, encouraging interested individuals to apply via the pinned comment. This group offers access to courses, tools, and community insights.