3 Subtle Signs You Will See Before Gold Correction Ends

Key Concepts

• Gold Correction Indicators: Time, 200-day moving average, and volatility are presented as key indicators for determining the end of a gold correction and the establishment of a final bottom.
• Market Overview: Analysis of gold, silver, stock market, gold vs. stock market, gold vs. Bitcoin, silver vs. Bitcoin, and mining stocks (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ).
• Historical Comparisons: Use of past gold corrections (early '70s, 2006) and silver corrections (1973, 2009-2011) as benchmarks.
• Gold Volatility (GVZ): The gold volatility contract is compared to the VIX and used as an indicator of market sentiment and potential turning points.
• Mining Stocks (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ): Analysis of current price action and support levels for gold and silver mining companies.
• Daily Gold Premium: A promotional mention of a premium newsletter service focused on junior mining stocks.

Market Overview and Weekly Wrap-up

The video begins with a market overview for the week ending Friday, November 21st, 2025. The analysis covers daily candle charts for gold, silver, the stock market, and various ratios including gold against the stock market, gold against Bitcoin, and silver against Bitcoin, as well as mining stocks (GDX, GDXJ, SIL) and silver stocks (SILJ).

• Gold vs. Stock Market: Gold is noted to be outperforming the stock market during the current correction, with a desire for further increases to reach significant resistance levels.
• Gold/Silver vs. Bitcoin: Gold and silver have broken out against Bitcoin, suggesting a potential shift of capital from crypto into precious metals.
• Miners: Similar to gold and silver, mining stocks show a clear support level, with the next strong support level likely to be tested.

Three Subtle Signs of Gold's Correction Ending

The core of the video focuses on three key indicators to identify the end of gold's correction and its final bottom:

1. Time:

   • Methodology: The speaker compares the current gold correction to three historical periods: two in the early '70s (1972, 1973) and one in 2006. An average of these corrections is used as a potential roadmap.
   • Key Point: Historical data suggests corrections can last around five months. The current correction is only about five weeks in, indicating that time is a significant factor and the correction is likely not over yet.
   • Technical Detail: Even if gold makes a slightly lower low, time becomes the dominant factor in determining the end of the correction.

2. The 200-Day Moving Average:

   • Methodology: After major breakouts, gold historically tends to pull back and test its 200-day moving average. The speaker examines weekly charts of gold's past tests or near-tests of this average following significant moves.
   • Historical Examples:
     • 2006 Correction: Bottomed just below the 200-day moving average after a roughly five-month correction.
     • 1972 Correction: Came within about 3% of the 200-day moving average but did not quite test it.
     • 1973 Correction: After a large move higher and a 28% decline, gold bottomed below the 200-day moving average.
   • Key Argument: The speaker believes the current situation is past the point of a 28% decline seen in 1973 and that an average of these historical corrections is the most relevant comparison. Testing or falling below the 200-day moving average is a crucial sign.

3. Volatility:

   • Concept: Lower volatility typically precedes significant price moves.
   • Indicator: The Gold Volatility Contract (GVZ), analogous to the VIX for the stock market, is used.
   • Observation: Historically, lows in GVZ (periods of low volatility) have occurred at the end of corrections and consolidations or at price lows.
   • Key Point: The speaker advises looking for GVZ to move sideways or dribble lower, indicating decreasing volatility. When gold falls below the 200-day moving average and volatility simultaneously decreases, it signals that the correction is nearing its end.

Current Market Analysis and Scenarios

• Gold:

  • Current Situation: Gold has corrected 11%, made a low, and experienced a rebound that has since fizzled.
  • Two Scenarios:
    1. Gold stabilizes in the current area, holding above $3,900.
    2. Gold makes a lower low, similar to a past pattern where the correction continued for several more months after a price low was established.
  • 200-Day Moving Average Trend: The 200-day moving average is expected to continue increasing, potentially reaching $3,700-$3,800 by the next year.

• Silver:

  • Performance: Silver is outperforming gold in the current rebound but has recently underperformed, closing just below $50.
  • Support Levels: Initial support is at $45-$46, with a further support level above a gap at $40-$41.
  • Outlook: The question is whether silver can establish another strong low. A significant bounce would set up a bullish consolidation.
  • Bigger Picture (Silver's Performance After Gold Breaks to New Highs): The speaker notes that silver's current performance is not mirroring the parabolic move seen in 1978. Historical comparisons from 1973 and the 2009-2011 period are considered the most realistic for silver's current situation. The 2009-2011 correction involved a rally back to resistance, followed by a four-to-five-month consolidation before a breakout. The 2010 breakout above $22 was significant as it was the first time above this level since 1980.

Daily Gold Premium Newsletter

• Service: A promotional segment for "The Daily Gold Premium," a newsletter that personally invests in and covers junior mining stocks with high upside potential (3x-5x, even 10x over 2-3 years).
• Target Audience: Investors in junior and larger mining companies seeking guidance and expertise in company selection and stock picking.
• Call to Action: Visit thedailygold.com/premium to sign up.

Mining Stocks Analysis

• Gold Stocks (GDX, GDXJ):

  • Current Trend: Recent weeks have shown bearish weekly candles for GDX and GDXJ following hard sell-offs and an oversold bounce.
  • Outlook: Both are likely to retest recent lows in the coming weeks.
  • Support Levels: Strong support for GDX is likely just below its recent low, and for GDXJ, it's around the mid-80s, with the recent low just above $85.

• Silver Stocks (SILJ):

  • Current Trend: Similar to gold miners, silver stocks experienced a hard sell-off, an oversold bounce, and are now moving lower again, with bearish candles observed.
  • Outlook: Expectation is for these stocks to retest their lows.
  • Support Levels: Strong support for SILJ is identified as just below $60, and for its seniors, around $18 or $19.

Conclusion and Call for Engagement

The speaker concludes by thanking viewers and mentioning a steak dinner. They encourage viewers to leave comments with their thoughts, suggestions for future topics, or any missed points. The video ends with well wishes for the weekend and a promise to return next week.