3 Stocks You'll Wish You Bought in 2026 (And 2 You'll Regret Owning)

Key Concepts

• AI-Energy Nexus: The direct correlation between the AI boom and the massive surge in electricity demand required to power data centers.
• Dark Energy (Behind-the-Meter Power): A strategy where data centers generate their own power on-site (collocation) to bypass grid limitations and regulatory hurdles.
• NIMBYism (Not In My Backyard): Local opposition to infrastructure projects, such as data centers, which creates regulatory bottlenecks and power supply issues.
• Uniform Accounting: A methodology used by Alimemetry Research to standardize financial data across different global accounting standards, allowing for accurate peer-to-peer profitability comparisons.
• Base Load Power: Reliable, 24/7 power generation (e.g., natural gas, nuclear) required by data centers, as opposed to intermittent sources like wind or solar.
• Hyperscaler Capex: Massive capital expenditure by tech giants (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) to secure AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) dominance.

1. The Power Boom Behind AI

The AI boom is fundamentally a "hard asset" boom. Regulatory bodies like FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) have drastically revised their power demand forecasts upward—from 24 gigawatts in 2022 to 166 gigawatts in 2023—to account for the energy-intensive nature of training AI models and running data centers. Because grid capacity is struggling to keep up, hyperscalers are shifting toward "Bring Your Own Power" (BYOP) solutions to avoid regulatory delays and local opposition.

2. Investment Strategy: Stocks to Buy

Rob Spivey highlights three companies positioned to benefit from the shift toward self-reliant, high-capacity energy solutions:

• GE Vernova (GEV):
  • Role: Manufactures natural gas turbines and provides "balance of power" equipment (transformers, wires).
  • Growth: Expected to more than double its annual power capacity production from 12–15 GW (two years ago) to 25–30 GW by 2030.
  • Thesis: Uniform accounting reveals that while peers operate at ~20% margins, GEV is currently undervalued and has significant room to expand profitability as it scales.
• Bloom Energy (BE):
  • Role: Provides fuel cell technology that converts natural gas and air into electricity on-site.
  • Growth: Recently secured a massive deal for the "Stargate Jupiter" project (2.4 GW).
  • Thesis: Offers a recurring revenue model through the necessary "topping up" of catalysts within fuel cells. It provides a viable, off-grid solution with a competitive break-even cost of $50–$80 per megawatt-hour.
• Kodiak Gas (KGS):
  • Role: Operates fleets of natural gas compressors and mobile power generators.
  • Thesis: Benefits from the "double dip" of increased natural gas demand (for pipelines) and the need for mobile, on-demand power at data center sites.

3. Investment Strategy: Stocks to Avoid

• NextEra Energy (NEE):
  • Reasoning: While a leader in renewables, its reliance on wind and solar is a disadvantage for data centers that require 24/7 "base load" power. Battery storage currently only extends intermittent power by a few hours, failing to solve the 8–12 hour gap during low-sun/low-wind periods.
• AECOM (ACM):
  • Reasoning: Despite being a construction firm, it lacks exposure to the specific sectors currently booming (data centers and power infrastructure). It is heavily tied to transportation and wastewater, and the market is signaling that it will not benefit from the current capital expenditure cycle.

4. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• The Prisoner’s Dilemma: Hyperscalers are in a "winner-take-all" race for AGI. They cannot afford to stop spending on capex, as the first to blink effectively loses the race. This ensures sustained demand for energy infrastructure.
• The "Dark Energy" Solution: The industry is moving away from the public grid. By building campuses that are not hooked up to the grid, companies bypass the "NIMBY" regulatory risks that have stalled projects in places like Virginia and Maine.
• US Competitive Advantage: The U.S. has a massive, low-cost supply of natural gas (e.g., EQT production costs at $1/BTU vs. market rates of $5/BTU), providing a strategic buffer against global energy price volatility.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The AI boom is inextricably linked to a massive, ongoing energy infrastructure build-out. Investors should look past the "AI stock" hype and focus on the "power providers" that enable the technology. The most compelling opportunities lie in companies providing base load, off-grid, or mobile power solutions (GEV, Bloom, Kodiak) rather than those tied to intermittent renewables or unrelated construction sectors. The market is currently rewarding companies that solve the "power plug-in" problem, and this trend is expected to continue as hyperscalers prioritize energy self-reliance to maintain their competitive edge.