2026 Precious Metals Strategy: Platinum Opportunity, Silver-Gold Caution, and Macro Tailwinds

Key Concepts

• Commodity Outlook (2026): Predictions for best and worst performing commodities.
• Geopolitical Events: Potential impact of events like the Ukraine conflict on commodity markets.
• Macroeconomic Trends: Discussion of recession risks, liquidity, and government spending.
• Specific Commodities: Oil, Platinum, Silver, Nickel, Lithium, PGMs (Platinum Group Metals), Copper.
• Equity Picks: Analysis of potential stock performance within the Olive Resource Capital portfolio (Ivanho Electric, Arizona Sonorin, Orion, Sailfish Royalties, Kotech).
• Market Sentiment: Importance of understanding prevailing market attitudes (e.g., bearish vs. bullish).
• Technical Analysis: Use of technical indicators and oversold conditions in commodity trading.
• M&A Activity: Predictions regarding potential mergers and acquisitions in the resource sector.

Commodity Performance Predictions for 2026

Derek and Sam PZ discussed their predictions for commodity performance in 2026, focusing on both best and worst performers.

Best Performing Commodity:

• Sam PZ: Believes oil will be the best performing commodity, citing a surprisingly positive global economic outlook. He notes the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast exceeding 3%, ongoing liquidity injection by the Treasury and Fed, and expansionary fiscal policy in China. He draws on Rick Rule’s observation that the most hated commodities often present the best opportunities, arguing oil is currently in an oversold condition.
• Derek McFerson: Favors platinum, pointing to a current market deficit, tight supply, and potential shifts in EV mandates. He anticipates a rebound in platinum prices driven by these factors, alongside existing positions in platinum and palladium within their portfolio.

Worst Performing Commodity:

• Sam PZ: Controversially predicts silver will be the most disappointing commodity, not necessarily due to a price decline, but because expectations are excessively high. He highlights the silver-gold ratio, arguing that silver’s recent correction has already occurred and that gold’s leadership in the commodity rally may diminish, reducing speculation in precious metals.
• Derek McFerson: Agrees with Sam PZ regarding silver, anticipating a “blowoff top” followed by underperformance compared to other commodities. He attributes this to silver’s tendency to experience short-term spikes followed by corrections, and expects gold’s performance to be less robust in 2026.

Dark Horse Commodity Picks

Both participants identified commodities considered out of favor or underestimated:

• Sam PZ: Selects nickel, acknowledging the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment surrounding it. He suggests that the extreme negativity may lead to an overshoot to the downside and a subsequent technical rebound.
• Derek McFerson: Chooses lithium, noting its recent recovery and potential for further gains. He points to consolidation activity in the lithium development space (Winsome Resources) and anticipates a positive outlook.

Portfolio Equity Analysis & Dark Horse Stock Picks

The discussion shifted to potential stock performance within the Olive Resource Capital portfolio.

Best Performing Stock (Currently in Portfolio):

• Sam PZ: Identifies Ivanho Electric (Ibano), citing its large copper mine, upcoming smelter production, PGM project, and the promotional abilities of its leadership. He notes the stock’s potential for a 50% advance from its current $13/share price.
• Derek McFerson: Also favors Ivanho Electric, acknowledging its strong fundamentals and potential for a rerating.

Dark Horse Stock Picks (Currently in Portfolio):

• Sam PZ: Highlights Kotech, a technology-focused company with licenses for recycling magnets and other applications. He emphasizes the expertise of its leadership and the potential for explosive growth.
• Derek McFerson: Suggests Copper Road and Sailfish Royalties. Copper Road benefits from its proximity to Ivanho Electric’s project and potential acquisition interest. Sailfish Royalties possesses a valuable royalty at Spring Valley, with potential for monetization. He also mentions CANX Metals as a smaller, undervalued company with potential for significant gains through a hostile merger.

Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Outlook

• Ukraine Conflict Resolution: Sam PZ predicts a resolution in Ukraine, anticipating a “peace dividend” that could drive reconstruction efforts and positively impact commodity markets. He cautions that this could be a signal to reduce risk exposure when sentiment becomes overly optimistic.
• Recession Risk: Derek McFerson believes a full-blown recession is unlikely due to substantial liquidity injection and government spending. He anticipates stagflation and a positive environment for commodity markets.
• Liquidity & Government Spending: Both participants emphasize the role of liquidity and government stimulus in supporting economic activity and commodity prices.

Potential M&A Activity

• Orion (Finland): Sam PZ predicts a takeover or significant transaction involving Orion, a company with a promising gold development project in Finland, due to the increasing opportunity cost for Rupert (potential acquirer).
• Arizona Sonorin: Derek McFerson anticipates potential M&A activity surrounding Arizona Sonorin, a copper development company, driven by the scarcity of developable assets in the US and interest from larger players like Rio Tinto and Hud Bay.

Notable Quotes

• Sam PZ: “It’s the most hated commodity [oil] and at the time and when that’s the case, typically good times are coming.”
• Derek McFerson: “Every time I go on YouTube or I read newsletters, every person on the planet seems to be uber ultra mega bullish silver.”
• Sam PZ: “As the global economy does better gold stops being the leader of the commodity rally.”

Conclusion

The episode provided a speculative outlook for 2026, covering commodity performance, equity picks, and macroeconomic trends. The participants offered diverse perspectives, highlighting both consensus and contrarian views. Key takeaways include a bullish outlook for oil and platinum, a cautious stance on silver, and the identification of several undervalued stocks within their portfolio. The discussion underscored the importance of understanding market sentiment, geopolitical events, and macroeconomic forces in navigating the commodity and resource sectors. The predictions are intended for review and analysis in the future, offering a benchmark for assessing the accuracy of their insights.