2026 FIFA World Cup: balanced routes for African teams • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• DRC-Rwanda Peace and Economic Accord: An agreement signed by the presidents of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda aimed at ending decades of conflict in eastern DRC.
• US-DRC Strategic Partnership: An agreement granting the US greater access to the DRC's mining sector, particularly for critical minerals.
• Cobalt and Copper Production: The DRC is the world's top producer of cobalt and the second largest producer of copper, making its mineral wealth a significant prize.
• Ugandan Presidential Election: An upcoming election in Uganda with President Yoweri Museveni and opposition figure Bobi Wine as key contenders.
• UN Human Rights Denunciation: The United Nations has condemned alleged crackdowns on opposition and the press in Uganda, calling for impartial investigations into human rights abuses.
• Zimbabwean Gold Royalty Tax: A new tax proposed by the Zimbabwean government on gold mining companies, with a 10% royalty if gold prices exceed $2,500 per ounce.
• 2026 Men's World Cup Draw: The group stage pairings for the upcoming FIFA World Cup, with nine African teams confirmed and a tenth possible.
• African Cup of Nations (AFCON): An upcoming continental football tournament that could influence coaching decisions for the World Cup.
• Hakimi, Salah, Mané: Prominent African football players expected to shine in the World Cup.

Conflict and Diplomacy in Eastern DRC

Fighting continues to be a major issue in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This ongoing conflict persists despite the signing of a peace and economic accord between the presidents of the DRC and Rwanda in Washington. The agreement, signed by President Felix Tshisekedi and President Paul Kagame, aims to resolve over 30 years of conflict in the region. However, its impact on the ground has been minimal so far.

US-DRC Strategic Partnership in Mining

Alongside the peace accord, the United States and the DRC have established a strategic partnership focused on the DRC's mining sector. This agreement is designed to increase American companies' access to the DRC's vast mineral resources. Historically, Chinese companies have dominated this sector. The DRC is a global leader in mineral wealth, being the world's top producer of cobalt and the second largest producer of copper. It also possesses significant reserves of lithium, tin, and tantalum.

Under the new agreement, the DRC will prioritize US companies for bids on certain new mining projects. Furthermore, the two nations will create a joint strategic minerals reserve to ensure a consistent supply of minerals like cobalt to the US. The DRC has also committed to exporting large volumes of its minerals via a railway line in which the US has invested heavily.

While this is seen as a significant gain for Washington, critics in the DRC question what their country will receive in return. The Congolese government's primary objective is to secure assistance in defeating the M23 rebels in eastern Congo, who are reportedly backed by Rwanda. However, the US has not yet provided explicit security guarantees.

Crackdown on Opposition and Press in Uganda

The presidential election campaign in Uganda is in full swing, with the vote scheduled for January 15th. Eight candidates are competing for the presidency, including incumbent President Yoweri Museveni and prominent opposition figure Bobi Wine.

The United Nations has voiced strong concerns regarding an escalating crackdown on the opposition. Vular Turk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has urged Ugandan authorities to cease what he describes as repressive tactics against opposition members and the media.

According to UN reports, at least 550 members and supporters of Bobi Wine's National Unity Platform party have been arrested in Uganda since the beginning of the year. Many of these individuals remain in detention, facing charges such as public disorder and obstruction of justice. These detentions are particularly significant as they have occurred during the election campaign period, a fact that the opposition, especially Bobi Wine, has been vocal in denouncing.

The case of long-time opposition figure Kizza Besigye, detained since last year on accusations of plotting against the government, is also highlighted. Beyond arrests, the UN has reported alleged disappearances and instances of torture, alongside repeated violations of press freedom and the excessive use of force by security services. These incidents follow the death of at least one person during an opposition rally the previous week.

These events raise serious concerns about a potential repetition of the irregularities reported during the 2021 presidential election, where the UN documented at least 54 deaths attributed to security forces, and the opposition alleged a vote marred by irregularities.

Zimbabwe's New Gold Royalty Tax

The Zimbabwean government is looking to capitalize on the recent surge in gold prices. Starting January 1st, 2026, Harare plans to implement a 10% royalty on gold if prices exceed $2,500 per ounce. This measure is intended to increase Zimbabwe's revenue from the booming gold market.

However, gold producers have expressed reservations about this new tax. Zimbabwe is introducing a tiered tax system for gold mining companies, ranging from 3% to 10%, dependent on the gold price per ounce. The highest rate of 10% will apply if the price surpasses $2,500 per ounce. This would make Zimbabwe's gold taxation the highest in the region.

The international price of gold is currently above $4,000 per ounce. Zimbabwe is facing challenges with low foreign currency reserves, and gold and tobacco are its primary export commodities that generate foreign currency. The government hopes this new tax will bolster state revenue.

Gold miners are concerned that the proposed 10% tax is excessively high and will negatively impact their profits. Gold already contributes 12% to Zimbabwe's GDP. Previously, large-scale miners paid a 5% tax.

2026 Men's World Cup Draw and African Prospects

The draw for the 2026 Men's World Cup group stages has been finalized, revealing the matchups for the participating teams. Nine African nations have officially qualified, with a tenth team potentially joining through runoff results.

Several highly anticipated matches involving African teams include:

• Ivory Coast vs. Germany (Group E)
• Senegal vs. France (Group I)
• Morocco vs. Brazil (Group C)

Sports consultant Karim Baldi believes it's a generally good draw for the confirmed African teams. While acknowledging tough challenges for Senegal against France and Norway (featuring Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard), and for Morocco against Brazil and Scotland, he notes that the format, where the top two teams from each group and the best third-placed teams advance to the round of 32, offers a fair chance for many teams to progress.

Baldi recalls Senegal's historic victory over defending champions France in the opening match of the 2002 World Cup, suggesting they might aim to replicate such a feat. For Morocco, he notes their previous loss to Brazil in 1998 but emphasizes their current strong team, with their performance potentially influenced by their success in the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).

The expansion of the 2026 World Cup to include more teams presents a significant opportunity for African football. This increased participation could allow smaller nations like Cape Verde, and potentially DR Congo if they qualify through the playoffs, to compete at the highest level and gain valuable experience against international opponents. The expanded format also promises new and interesting matchups, such as Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador and Curaçao.

Ivory Coast's Challenge Against Germany

Ivory Coast, the current holders of the Africa Cup of Nations, will face Germany, Ecuador, and Curaçao in Group E. Baldi suggests that facing Germany now might be opportune, as the German team has seen a decline since their 2014 World Cup victory. He notes that Germany's squad depth is not as formidable as in previous years. Curaçao, described as the smallest nation to ever participate in a World Cup, will also face tough competition. Both Ivory Coast and Ecuador are noted for their strong defenses, having conceded few goals in their qualifying campaigns.

Cape Verde's World Cup Debut

Cape Verde is making its debut in the World Cup and will face Spain and Uruguay. Baldi acknowledges this as a challenging lineup for a first-time participant. He also mentions Saudi Arabia as a team whose level has been increasing, citing their 2022 victory over Argentina as an example. For Cape Verde, the World Cup represents a completely new experience. They managed to qualify from a group that included strong African contenders like Cameroon and Angola. Their preparation will be interesting, as they are not participating in the upcoming AFCON in Morocco, but will instead focus directly on the World Cup in North America. Despite being a small archipelago, they possess a good team with decent players, including striker Zé Luís and Bebou, who was named CAF Coach of the Year.

Impact of AFCON on World Cup Preparations

The proximity of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), scheduled to begin in less than two weeks, could be a significant factor for African teams and their coaches heading into the World Cup. Baldi suggests that coaching changes are likely to occur after AFCON, particularly for teams like Morocco. The pressure on Morocco's head coach, Walid Regragui, to win the AFCON on home soil after more than 50 years of waiting is immense. Even reaching the final and losing could be considered a major disappointment for the nation. Therefore, the outcome of AFCON could determine which coaches remain in their positions to lead their teams to the World Cup.

Key African Players to Watch

When asked about which African players are likely to shine at the World Cup, Baldi highlights Achraf Hakimi, Mohamed Salah, and Sadio Mané. He specifically picks Hakimi, noting his recent return to training with Paris Saint-Germain after an injury sustained in November. This is positive news for Morocco, as Hakimi is expected to be a star player at AFCON and a key figure for the Moroccan national team. His impressive performances for both PSG and the national team make him a player to watch closely at the World Cup.